Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
613 am CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

issued at 312 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

For today through early Friday, the forecast continues to be quiet
with benign weather conditions prevailing. Cut-off low spinning
over the Texas/OK border over the last day or so will finally get
pushed off toward the east as an upper shortwave trough assists
with walking its way out. The low has had minimal impacts locally,
just a persistent cirrus shield that has been spilling over into
the southern half of the forecast area. The departure of the low
opens up a brief window for upper-level ridging to move across the
plains through Thursday before phasing out, eventually leading to
zonal flow taking over by the weekend. Not all is well, however,
as perturbations within the mean flow creates another unsettled
time frame with a preview starting late Friday.

Model differences begin to become obvious as early as within the
medium-range period, essentially right around the start of the
unsettled period beginning at the end of the traditional work
week and into the weekend. The 00z runs of the Gem and European model (ecmwf)
resemble each other from Saturday Onward with the GFS standing
alone. The inclination may be to lean toward the two that agree
with each other but given the improvements of the GFS as of late,
am not ready to rule out that solution. While lowered confidence
exists in the details of how this weekend will play out given weak
signals within the models, what can be said with somewhat
confidence is that the ingredients are present for convection,
perhaps with an emphasis on the diurnally-driven variety as
temperatures rise well into the 70s by this weekend with dewpoints
on its heels. How widespread (or not widespread) said convection
will be is yet to be seen.

By the end of the weekend into early next week, both the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) depict a frontal boundary crossing the region, providing a
focus for potential convection chances. Have capped off pops in
the high-end chance category for now for Sunday night through
Monday night.

As already alluded to, temperatures will be warming up this week
and into the weekend, with highs possibly flirting with the 80
degree mark by Sunday. Have kept slightly lower highs in the south
for today given the influence of the aforementioned low bringing
in continued cloud cover there, with a few more 70s being reached
along and north of the I-70 corridor as compared to yesterday.
Widespread lower 70s then dominate tomorrow through Friday with
mid to upper 70s forecast to appear Saturday and Sunday, then
cooling off a bit early next week, thanks to possible cloud
cover/precip and the fropa. Low temps will match with 40s tonight
through Thursday night, then warming as well through the weekend.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 559 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

VFR conditions at all four terminals will continue to prevail
throughout the taf period. Northerly winds will top out at around
10 knots this afternoon, accompanied by a high-based cumulus field
expected to develop. After sunset tonight, the cumulus field will
dissipate and the winds will slacken, becoming more northwesterly
overnight. Increasing clouds, particularly after midnight through
dawn tomorrow, will be seen as some mid-level moisture and upper-
level forcing coincide and move through. For this taf issuance,
scattered is in the forecast but is expected to become broken as Wednesday
morning progresses.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations