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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1239 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

issued at 317 am CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorms this morning. Early this morning
an expansive deck of accus is covering most of the Missouri portion
of the County Warning Area. Weak isentropic lift is evident of the 310k surface
which is allowing a few showers to develop across portions of
central Missouri and northern Missouri this morning. We may see a
brief uptick in coverage this morning however, the isentropic lift
looks to weaken just after sunrise. As such, storms should diminish
shortly thereafter. Otherwise, expect conditions to dry out today as
an upper level ridge axis builds over the area. This ridge axis will
remain over the area through Saturday keeping conditions warm and
dry. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Saturday.

Sunday we will begin to see a shift in the upper level pattern as a
upper level trough that comes on shore over the West Coast Friday
night begins to pull out into the northern High Plains. This will
force a cold front across the plains states Sunday. A few showers
and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front may affect the
northwestern County Warning Area as early as late Sunday afternoon. However, models
have in come into better agreement that storms will hold off until
Sunday night as the cold front moves into the area. The cold front
is then expected to stall across the area on Monday as the upper
level trough moves into the Canadian plains leaving the area in
quasi-zonal flow aloft. With no push on the front, and several
shortwaves expected on zonal flow during the early to middle part of
the week, several rounds of storms will be possible. As such, have
periods of chance pops in the forecast Monday through Wednesday
night. With significant cloud cover and showers expected during the
early part of the week, temperatures will be much more seasonable
and perhaps even below normal as highs by Wednesday are expected to
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1235 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Little change to the ongoing aviation discussion. Backed off on wind
gusts for today, but introduced some higher wind around mid morning
on Friday. Otherwise VFR conditions anticipated for remainder of the
forecast period.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...



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