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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO
134 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)

An episode of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas and much of western
Missouri. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and torrential rainfall
are all possible with these storms. Rainfall rates combined with
moist soil conditions will lead to a flash flood risk in any areas
that experiences heavy rain.

A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for areas along and south of a
line from St. Joseph to Kirksville.

Short term models suggest that the severe risk could move into
southwest and central Missouri by 11pm tonight, with residual showers
lingering over northern Missouri into Tuesday morning.

For the rest of Tuesday, it's difficult to determine where the effective
surface front will be located due to convective outflow, cloud cover,
and rain contamination. Therefore will will continue the higher probability of precipitation
over west central and central Missouri through Tuesday afternoon, with
much lower probability of precipitation over northern Missouri. This forecast is based on a
frontal position across the Ozarks.

Highs on Tuesday may only reach the middle 70s as a cooler northern
plains airmass spreads into the region.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)

Regarding Tuesday night, it appears as though the bulk of the heavy
rain and flooding will occur over Oklahoma as a shortwave trough
moves in from the southwest. This rainfall will eventually spread
into central and southern Missouri Wednesday morning.

Therefore Tuesday night through Wednesday, we will focus the higher
rainfall probabilities across west central and central Missouri.

Models suggest the surface front will remain over southern Missouri
through Wednesday night, focusing the bulk of the precipitation south
of I-70. However, by Thursday and Thursday night, this front is
expected to track back to the north, bringing additional rainfall to
northern Missouri.

As we progress toward the weekend, the summertime high is expected to
build across the nation's mid section, bringing hot and dry weather
to northern and western Missouri. Look for temperatures to warm into
the 80s and possibly the lower 90s by Friday and Saturday afternoons.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)

Little change to ongoing forecast. VFR conditions continue early this
afternoon with gusty southerly winds. Cold front projected to arrive
at terminals between 21-00z. Increasing chances for thunderstorms
expected with cold front approach and behind frontal boundary.
Widespread rain should gradually clear terminals overnight tonight
with only a few scattered showers expected Tuesday am. MVFR
precipitation and Post-frontal conditions.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
evening for ksz057-060-103>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
evening for moz013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-



Short term...Cramer
long term...Cramer

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