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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
605 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Update...
issued at 559 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the County Warning Area from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the County Warning Area.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the Texas upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening pops so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

Discussion...
issued at 253 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central Texas this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern mo; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
County Warning Area Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 c, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central Continental U.S. And reinforce northwest flow over the
County Warning Area. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they'll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central Continental U.S..

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 516 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty northwest winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.



&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

$$

Update...mj
discussion...Laflin
aviation...Welsh

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