Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
507 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015
issued at 256 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015
Tonight: surface high pressure will build into the area tonight.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to the northeast overnight
with speeds reducing to around 5 kts. There is some potential for
patchy fog over northeastern to northern Missouri tonight, with NAM
and sref probabilities relatively high. Uncertainty lies with modest
wind speeds remaining and some drier air gradually moving into the
area. Otherwise, a relatively quiet night is expected with lows
falling into the lower 30s.
Tuesday/wednesday: with the influences of the departing surface high
pressure, Tuesday should be a few degrees cooler with easterly
boundary layer winds and shallower mixing. Afternoon readings are
expected to range from the middle 40s northeast to the middle 50s
southwest. The warmest day for the forecast area will occur on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the upper pattern begins
to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to upper 60s. Dry
weather is expected through the warm period.
Extended: an upper disturbance will drop southeast from the Missouri
Valley to the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with an accompanying cold
front to push through the forecast area, bringing cooler
temperatures into the area. Any appreciable weather should remain
just to the northeast of the area on Thursday with the passage of
the upper low. Models have trended to a more active pattern this
weekend with the approach of a northern stream positively-tilted
shortwave trough. Forecast soundings suggest profiles supportive of
snow, or at least a rain-snow mix, through precipitation amounts
still vary greatly. Colder air is expected to follow behind the next
cold front and the subsequent exit of precipitation on Sunday.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 505 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Will see a
gradual turning of the winds from the northwest to east and ultimately out of
the southeast by noon on Tuesday. Some models are hinting at the development
of early morning fog. This looks to affect areas mostly to the east
of the terminals, but will monitor the developing setup and adjust
forecast if necessary for the 06z issuance.