Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
544 am CDT Tue may 21 2013
Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 304 am CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
The main upper-level low is still spinning in the upper Missouri
Valley but the cold front associated with the upper storm system may
almost be out of our forecast area by this afternoon. So the best
chances for storms looks to only be our southeastern zones. The NAM
hangs the front up this afternoon further north but even with the
slower NAM, the instability is very weak and shear is marginal at
best for storm organization. So any storms we do see are not expected
to become severe.
Outside of the small convective chances for our southeastern zones,
the forecast for today and tonight looks quiet. Cooler and drier air
will move into the region with highs in the low to mid 70s expected
across much of the area.
The persistent upper low will finally begin to move east but as it
does, may bring a small chance for showers and thunderstorms to
northern and northeastern Missouri. Being that it's may, with surface
temperatures expected to be in the 60s across northern Missouri, and
the colder air aloft associated with the upper low moving closer to
the forecast area, some diurnally driven showers and few storms look
possible. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Quiet, comfortable weather is expected for Thursday as high pressure
builds into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes area. This
will bring drier northeasterly winds to the area with highs in the
middle 70s.
Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 304 am CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Near to above normal temperatures and somewhat unsettled conditions
are expected through the long-range forecast period as a shallow
ridge builds over the eastern plains and several shortwave troughs
ride over the ridge axis.
The first shortwave trough should push into the area by late Friday
or early Saturday, bringing scattered thunderstorms chances into the
forecast area for the end of the work week and into the weekend. The
best chance of precipitation should be Saturday as the main trough
axis moves through. A frontal boundary may linger across northern or
northeast portions of the region on Sunday and Monday, stretching
precipitation chances through the remainder of the weekend and into
early next week, but the overall chance of precipitation will be
much lower with this more subtle feature. Another shortwave trough
will head into the region late Monday and into Tuesday, which could
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms into the region for
the end of the forecast period.
Highs will start out in the lower to mid 70's for Friday, then will
warm into the upper 70's and into the 80's by the end of the period
as the ridge strengthens across the region. Lows should also be a
few degrees above normal in the mid 60's as a result of cloud cover
and precipitation around the area.
&&
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 538 am CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will generally
be from the west through the period with winds increasing to 10-15 kt
range this afternoon. Winds will diminish around sunset. Lower
ceilings, though still VFR are expected to move into the region
tonight as the upper-low drifts southeastward. Lower ceilings,
possibly MVFR or lower, may move through northern Missouri by 12z and
possibly further south, impacting the terminals after 12z.
&&
Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&
$$
Short term...cdb
long term...Laflin
aviation...cdb
