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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
546 am CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

issued at 320 am CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

With northwest flow prevailing over the region through the weekend,
there will be several shortwave troughs moving through the flow that
will bring US several rounds of weather. On the heels of the wave
currently moving through, another and potentially stronger wave will
slide southeast through the region tonight. Given more widespread
but still light accumulating precip this morning, and that tonight's
wave looks stronger, have increased pops substantially across much
of the forecast area. Temperatures should also be colder and this
may bring some light accumulations, less than half an inch, to parts
of northern/northeastern Missouri into central Missouri.

Another upper level shortwave trough will move through the region
late Saturday night and into the day Sunday. By this time,
temperatures will be much warmer so the potential for snow is nil,
but there should be at least scattered showers across the area
through the morning and daytime hours on Sunday.

Shortwave ridging should spread over the region Monday into Tuesday,
allowing for a nice warm up into the 70s. But another strong
northern stream storm system will track across the northern plains
and upper Midwest, trailing a cold front into the area on Wednesday.
Based on the latest model trends, this front should arrive later in
the day, after peak heating, allowing for temperatures to climb into
the mid to perhaps upper 70s ahead of the front. Very warm
temperatures aloft coupled with good southwesterly winds and modest
mixing ahead of the front will all aid in the warm pre-frontal
conditions. While there will be some instability across the area
ahead of the front, the best dynamics will occur behind the front
and as a result, the chances for severe storms looks rather low at
this point. But models do depict a decent amount of quantitative precipitation forecast so hopefully
we can get some widespread moderate rainfall to eat into the
precipitation deficits we've racked up so far this year.

Above normal temperatures should persist through the end of the
week. Models vary on the next chance for precipitation but the
active pattern may continue Thursday night into Friday. The European model (ecmwf)
shows a modest low pressure system tracking through the region with
ample quantitative precipitation forecast across the area. The GFS is slower and more southerly with
this low bring its greatest precip amounts to southern Missouri.
Overall, didn't change much from the forecast initialization and
have maintained the chance pops for this period of time.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 546 am CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

MVFR ceilings will shift southward in the predawn hours and should
move away from the terminals by 12z. This will give way to VFR
conditions for much of the day and into the evening with light winds.
Tonight, light rain may move into the terminals with another round of
MVFR ceilings.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...



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