Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Discussion...
issued at 354 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Tonight - monday:

Before we discuss the overall pattern into early next week the near
term concerns center around fog potential. Airmass ahead of a
windshift line from western Iowa into north central Kansas is quite moist
with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. Much drier air resides
behind this boundary which is expected to slide southeast through
the County Warning Area overnight. Latest sref visibility prog and WRF simulated
GOES-r 10.35u-3.9u product, which did a great job on last nights
fog, favors areas south of a irk to mkc line for fog redeveloping.
Also think there is good chance for at least patchy dense fog over
the southern 1/3 of the County Warning Area. Will hold off on issuing an advisory
and let evening shift evaluate visibility trends.

As for the weekend and next Monday we are looking at a very warm and
dry period. A moderately high amplitude upper ridge will translate
eastward through the plains/MS valley allowing a large fetch of
unseasonably warm air to spread northeast. Max temperatures by
Sunday will fall just short of record readings with most locations
seeing 80s. Mci and stj record highs for Sunday is 87.

Monday night - tuesday:

Medium range models similar in handling a shortwave trough tracking
through the northern/Central Plains and upper MS valley. Associated
cold front will push through the County Warning Area. Increasing warm air advection
multi-layered clouds will overspread the region with scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Considerable amount of cin
within the warm sector to overcome so thunder chances most likely
tied to minuscule elevated instability. Much cooler air, albeit
nothing worse than seasonal readings, will move into the region.

Wednesday - friday:

Upper pattern becomes a bit more unsettled with northwest flow and
the remnants of ts Ana diving southeast through the northern plains
and into the mid MO River Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. Models
just starting to take into consideration the energy and moisture
with Ana and won't be surprised if later model runs ramp up the pops
for Wednesday night/early Thursday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 608 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

The main concern for aviators this taf period will be the potential
for fog and even dense fog tomorrow morning. However, VFR conds will
prevail until after midnight with just sct-bkn high cirrus. Winds
this evening will diminish out of the SW to around 5kts. A surface
trough will move through the terminals btn 07z-09z causing winds to
become lgt and vrb with mainly clr skies. This will allow fog
to develop at the terminals reducing vsbys to 3sm-5sm. The question
then becomes does dry air behind the surface trough allow fog to cont
to be lgt or the moist air near the surface prevail. If the moist air
does prevail then there is the potential for dense fog btn 10z-14z
which would reduce vsbys into the IFR range. For the 00z taf
issuance, have not included a tempo grp for dense fog at the
terminals (with the exception of fog prone stj) due to uncertainty of
development. However can not rule out the addition of a tempo grp for
dense for with the 06z issuance. In any case, fog will lift from the
terminals btn 14z-15z and VFR conds should then prevail through the
remainder of the period with clr skies. Winds throughout the day
tomorrow will be lgt and vrb.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...mj
aviation...73

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations