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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
328 PM CDT Mon may 4 2015

issued at 327 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, Kansas. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000j/kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main Mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern Continental U.S. Into The Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance pops over portions of
the County Warning Area if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
The Four Corners into the eastern rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern Continental U.S. Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1218 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Main concern for aviators during this taf cycle will be the potential
for thunderstorm activity at the terminals from late this afternoon
into tonight. VFR conds are expected thru the period with sct-bkn
mid-lvl clouds this afternoon giving way to a bkn deck around 5kft
around 22z-00z when thunderstorms move into the terminals. Vis
restrictions are not expected with these storms. Storms are expected
to cont at the terminals thru 05z-07z when thunderstorms will shift
north of the terminals however a few could remain in the vc in the
terminals until the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Otrw...expect clouds too
sct out around 10kft tomorrow morning.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...



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