Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.
An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept pops out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, Kansas to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn't amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.
By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
Continental U.S. Will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
IFR to low-end MVFR conditions expected to continue through
mid-morning at terminals. Areas of drizzle should gradually diminish
over the next few hours. Ceilings will improve around 15-18z with
skies becoming mostly clear shortly after the end of the taf period.