Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
603 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013
Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 345 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013
Very few changes were needed to the forecast through tomorrow. Based
on latest high res models, radar, and satellite trends it appears,
other than a stray shower across the MO/Iowa border, the County Warning Area should
remain dry this evening. Later tonight a small cluster of storms is
progged to work in from the west, but the latest hrrr depicts a
weaker system than what much of the northern third of the County Warning Area experienced
early this morning. At this time I have an overnight precip forecast
that favors the northern half of the County Warning Area with higher chance pops
compared to lower chances to the south. As for tomorrow, more of
the same with lingering scattered morning showers and weak
thunderstorms with perhaps redevelopment in the afternoon.
Temperature wise the County Warning Area will remain mild and rather muggy as
compared to the past several days under partly to mostly cloudy
skies.
Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 345 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013
The potential for wet weather looks to bracket either end of the
work week, though there will be plenty of dry days in between.
Shortwave ridge will be dominating the Central Plains as Memorial
Day dawns, with nocturnal thunderstorm activity likely lingering
through the morning hours. In general, operational and ensemble
models continue to advertise that this modest ridge will stay in
place across the plains states through Tuesday, when the west Continental U.S.
Trough will finally begin to shift east. As the trough begins to
move into the plains the storm track will shift farther north which
should give most locations in our forecast areas a break from the
rain chances. However, given the negative tilt to the trough as it
shifts into the plains, and the general synoptic pattern, thoughts
are that storms will not only return tot he forecast, but severe
weather may plague the region by the end of the work week.
Currently, the best potential for storms looks to be Thursday night
and Friday night as the nocturnal jet Cranks up ahead of the west
Continental U.S. Trough.
Otherwise, with the prevailing storm track, and by extension the
prevailing westerlies, remaining to the north of Kansas and Missouri
through the work week we expect temperatures to rise to a category
or two above normal through the week.
&&
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 603 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013
Convection has blossomed across western Kansas however models seem to
be evaporating this convection as it moves eastward tonight. With
temperature/dewpoint spreads of 15-20 degrees across the area, that
seems reasonable so have left tafs dry overnight. It appears better chance for
convection may come tomorrow afternoon but no confidence in timing or
placement to include in the taf at the moment. GFS MOS/lamp as well
as NAM bufr soundings are hinting at MVFR cigs tomorrow morning but
continue to think boundary layer is too moist so have held off on
inclusion in the taf. Winds will be out of the south between 10-15kts
through tomorrow afternoon when they will become gusty around
20-25kts.
&&
Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&
$$
Short term...pietrycha
long term...cutter
aviation...73
