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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
653 am CDT Mon may 25 2015

Update...
issued at 645 am CDT Monday may 25 2015

Have increased pops across far west central and northwest MO and
eastern Kansas for the first part of this morning. The bowing convective
segment we've been watching tracking east across Kansas early this
morning is beginning to weaken but should hold together long enough
as it passes into our far western counties to warrant increasing rain
chances.

&&

Discussion...
issued at 421 am CDT Monday may 25 2015

Memorial day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought US a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the County Warning Area. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern Kansas. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we'll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small mesoscale convective system with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central Kansas. Last several runs of the hrrr
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance pops over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over Colorado is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central Kansas where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ j/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any mesoscale convective system to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 650 am CDT Monday may 25 2015

A bwoing line of showers and thunderstorms will affect the terminals
for the first few hours of the forecast. IFR ceilings over southeast
and east central Kansas may not reach the terminals due to the convection
moving into west central and northwest MO. So, MVFR ceilings for this
morning before rising to VFR this afternoon.

Southerly winds should increase and become gusty as ceilings lift and
possibly even scatter out.

Later this evening scattered convection over southern NE/northern Kansas could
move into northwest MO, including kstj. Plus covection further south may
affect areas south of Kansas City. Otherwise, VFR conditions at the
Kansas City terminals.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

$$

Update...mj
discussion...mj
aviation...mj

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