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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1230 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

Discussion...
issued at 419 am CDT Friday Aug 22 2014

Today - tonight:

Excessive heat and humidity continues to be the main theme today
with similar heat index values as Thursday. Have expanded the
advisory to include northeast MO as the hotter air is expected to
spread into this region. Primary caveat is how long/much of the
convective cloud debris will linger and how much of the upstream mid
level cloudiness now over central Kansas can migrate northeast.

An upper ridge axis extends north from a large dome of high pressure
centered over the central Gulf Coast. Despite the presence of this
feature convection blossomed over north central Kansas Thursday evening
and now an expanding mesoscale convective system over southern Iowa and extreme northeast MO.
Moderately strong moist isentropic ascent on the 310k through 314k
surfaces appears to be the primary catalyst with quasi-stationary
front now distorted by the Iowa/MO convection. A look at the h7
temperatures progged through this evening reveals a relatively
uncapped environment and the potential for additional widely
scattered elevated convection this evening with another surge of
isentropic ascent on the same surfaces. Will blanket northern MO
with chance pops to account for this.

Saturday:

Slightly warmer air at h7 is expected to spread into the region,
effectively capping the airmass and rendering the region rain-free.
With h8 and 925mb temperatures unchanged or slightly warmer
saturday's highs should be similar to fridays if not a degree or two
hotter. Better/deeper mixing should yield slightly lower dewpoints
but no net improvement of heat index values. Given that feel it's
warranted to extend the advisory into early Saturday evening.

Sunday:

Increasing concerns that there will be no change in airmass but this
far out runs the risk of better/deeper mixing lowering dewpoints and
any debris left over from nocturnal convection can limit heating,
resulting in heat index values not reaching criteria. Later shifts
will need to re-evaluate. Extending the excessive heat for a fourth
day would require issuing an excessive heat warning.

Monday - tuesday:

Looking more and more like the excessive heat will linger into the
first part of next week. However, it also appears dewpoints will
continue to mix out more with each passing day. This would result in
heat index readings below criteria. An elevated mixed layer will
continue to cap any convection and result in a dry forecast.

Tuesday night - thursday:

Finally a break in the heat as a cold front is expected to dive
southeast through the County Warning Area Tuesday night and bring a chance of storms
to the entire County Warning Area. Cooler and somewhat drier air is expected to move
into the region with the passage of the front.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1230 PM CDT Friday Aug 22 2014

Morning showers and storms across northern MO are expected to
dissipate over the next 1-2 hours, and cirrus associated with them
should gradually dissipate. A few isolated storms may continue
across central and eastern Kansas this afternoon, with some possible
additional isolated shower/storm development by mid to late afternoon
across far western MO. Any storms that do develop may creep into the
vicinity of all taf sites between 22z-02z this evening, but are not
expected to be widespread or make it much further east than the I-29
corridor. Otherwise, ceilings will remain VFR and winds will remain
out of the south southwest.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ksz025-057-060-102>105.

MO...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for moz001>008-011>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...mj
aviation...Laflin

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