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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Short term...(this evening through Monday afternoon)
issued at 336 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

A beautiful stretch of days has kicked off across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri as shortwave ridging is overspreading the forecast
area. At the surface the ridge over the western Great Lakes
continues to move east, allowing a surface trough to move across the
High Plains, into the Central Plains. The result is a tightening
surface pressure gradient across Kansas. For today the tighter
pressure gradient will remain off to the west, keeping our area a
little lighter with the winds. That will generally change as we move
into Saturday. The tighter surface pressure gradient will move
across this forecast area, allowing the southerly winds to respond
by increasing through the early morning hours on Saturday. Expect
southerly winds to increase to around 15 mph by mid day Saturday,
with gusts up to 25 mph. In response to the warm air advection and
mid level ridging expect a very warm day on Saturday with highs
approaching 80 degrees across the entire area.

The focus then shifts to Sunday, and outdoor Easter festivities.
Models continue to show a solution that keeps the entire forecast
area dry through the morning. Good moisture advection through the
day on Sunday should prime the atmosphere adequately to kick of
showers and thunderstorms as the mid level trough approaches the
area from the west. At this time it still appears that the morning
to afternoon hours on Easter Sunday will remain dry, with showers
and thunderstorms overspreading the area Sunday evening through the
overnight hours. Marginal instability, mainly in conjunction with
the cooler temperatures aloft with the trough will yield values of
around 1000 j/kg of sb cape for Sunday evening. With virtually no
deep layer shear it is highly unlikely that severe weather will
occur with any of these storms. Widespread light to moderate rain,
with embedded pockets of heavy rain will move through Sunday night
through Monday morning, bringing about .25 to .50 inch of rain
area-wide with a some locations perhaps receiving more. Most of the
rain should be clear of the area by mid day on Monday. Light
northwest surface winds and passing clouds could help keep
temperatures a bit lower for Monday, but still expect highs to
generally creep back into the lower to mid 70s by Monday afternoon.

Long term...(monday evening through friday)
issued at 336 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Upper pattern amplifies in the later portion of the forecast period
with chances for thunderstorm activity increasing during the middle
to end part of the work week. Progressive ridge builds into the
central US for the early part of the week in response to departing
upper low over the Great Lakes and deepening trough moving into the
northwest US.

Surface high pressure should bring nice Spring weather to the region
on Tuesday with temperatures at or slightly above normal. Return
flow sets up in wake of departing high pressure and in advance of
surface low pressure moving into the northern plains. As a result
there should be a corresponding increase in deeper low level
moisture and strengthening low-level warm advection through the day
on Wednesday with temperatures warming well into the 70s.
Strengthening nocturnal low level jet and deepening upper trough over the
northern plains should provide for decent chance for thunderstorms
across the region especially Wednesday night into Thursday. European model (ecmwf) a
bit faster with the progression of these features than GFS, however
both indicate the threat for precipitation dwindling during the day
on Friday as a surface cold front pushes through the forecast area
ushering in cooler and drier air.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 615 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

VFR conditions with increasing and gusty southerly winds by mid
Saturday morning.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Leighton
long term...Mitchell
aviation...mj