Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
657 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 337 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of surface low located over south
central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has been a bit
slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high temperatures.
Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over a majority of
the County Warning Area as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas of northern Missouri,
though this too will eventually begin to break up by the early

A developing shortwave feature cresting the midlevel ridge to the
west will be the primary feature affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the County Warning Area Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however. Given
the progged position of the llj, the better lift for widespread
convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with precipitable
water values approaching 2 inches across the cwa, the better forcing
over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy rainfall in this
region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief cooling trend
will commence Saturday before return southerly flow will bring
increasing temperatures through the early week. At that time, broad
mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended drying trend.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 337 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 657 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Isolated showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm will be possible
again at all terminals by 03z-04z, then will become more probable
after 08z as a complex moves in from the west. A short break in
precipitation is possible between 16z-mid afternoon, then another
round of showers and storms will be possible from 21z Onward at all
taf sites. Ceilings and visibilities will be mainly VFR except in
periods of heavier precipitation, and winds will veer and increase
out of the southwest during the daylight hours Friday.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Welsh
long term...Leighton

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations