Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1202 am CDT Thu Jun 20 2013
Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 245 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Temperatures have warmed into the lower and even middle 80s across
the forecast area this afternoon. The primary concern in the short
term portions of the forecast deal with minor precipitation chances
through Friday morning.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a minor shortwave moving
into east central Kansas. Precipitation development along and ahead
of this wave should be minimal as lift remains fairly weak with the
shortwave. Without any well defined boundary in area area, surface
convergence remains fairly limited. Given a shortwave in the area
with minimal capping (suggested further by aftn aircraft soundings
from kci), wouldn't rule out isolated to sct development later this
afternoon, with best chances focused along 700 mb moisture axis over
NE Kansas and northwestern portions of Missouri. There remains a
fairly large area of 1500-2000 j/kg instability over eastern Kansas
and parts of western Missouri, however little to no effective shear
should preclude any organized severe weather outside of a few
stronger wind producing downbursts.
Tonight: much of the evening and most of the overnight should be dry
as subsidence behind the upper wave prevents convection. Further
west, we'll watch elevated instability increase as a secondary
shortwave lifts northeast out of The Rockies. Higher quality
low-level moisture should advect into central Kansas after midnight,
with a developing low level jet forcing scattered elevated convection towards
daybreak.
Thursday: the remnants of convection to the west will move into the
County Warning Area by daybreak Thursday as the low level jet begins to veer. Several models
indicate some lingering vorticity center (potential mcv) which moves
across the County Warning Area later in the afternoon. Depending on any remnant
outflow boundaries, we could have scattered convection again in the
afternoon.
Thursday night: mid-level heights continue to rise over the central
US as low-level temperatures being to increase. Again, with the
development of a strong nocturnal llj, plausible to see scattered
overnight convection over northern Missouri, Iowa and Nebraska into
Friday morning.
Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 245 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Friday through Wednesday...relatively quiet weather is expected
during the mid and extended periods. By Friday, upper heights will
rise as the pattern over the central Continental U.S. Begins to amplify, with
an upper ridge firmly in place through the period. Little change
from day to day is expected, or at least what can be resolved at
this time, with no notable upper disturbances anticipated to move
across the area. Operational models occasionally generate light quantitative precipitation forecast
amounts during this period, but with no discernible forcing, kept
probabilities of precipitation low. Any thunderstorms that develop
are expected to be relatively short-lived and isolated in part due
to poor wind shear and little forcing.
The bigger story perhaps will be the persistent above normal
temperatures and humid conditions expected over much of the forecast
area with little pattern change currently anticipated. High
temperatures each afternoon are expected to reach between 89 to 93
degrees. These readings when combined with dewpoints in the lower
70s will result in afternoon heat indices between 95 to 100 degrees
each afternoon Fri-Wed.
&&
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1151 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Conds are expected to be VFR overnight as just scattered mid level
clouds are expected. Tomorrow morning scattered showers and
thunderstorms across eastern Kansas and western Missouri which may
affect the terminals. As such have thunderstorms in the vicinity at the terminals between 12z-
16z with a sct-bkn deck around 8kft. Tomorrow afternoon will feature
scattered cu around 4kft with a bkn mid level deck. Winds will be out
of the south-southeast overnight between 5-10kts. Winds will pick up
to 10-15kts tomorrow morning before increasing to around 15kts by
late morning with gusts to 20-25kts. Gusts will subside tomorrow
evening however wind will remain near 15kts.
&&
Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&
$$
Short term...dux
long term...Blair
aviation...73
