Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
351 am CDT Mon Sep 1 2014
issued at 351 am CDT Monday Sep 1 2014
A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.
This morning's storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our County Warning Area. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.
Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing Lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the County Warning Area. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 c range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1151 PM CDT sun Aug 31 2014
Line of storms that affected the terminals tonight has moved through as
of this time, leaving strati-form rain and thunderstorms in the vicinity as the primary weather
at our sites currently. This activity could last through 11z at the
Kansas City terminals, but should end sooner at kstj --09z--.
Otherwise, expect southerly winds to prevail for much of the day
behind the exiting rain. There will be a returning threat for
thunderstorms generally near and south of Kansas City again Monday
afternoon, so have inserted thunderstorms in the vicinity in after 21z.