Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 PM CDT Friday Sep 4 2015
issued at 330 PM CDT Friday Sep 4 2015
An upper ridge will keep the weather quiet and dry through Sunday
afternoon for the area. High temperatures will warm into the 90s
each afternoon this weekend, with heat indices creeping into the
The ridge will begin to break down and flatten across the central
Continental U.S. As a large upper trough moves into the northern plains.
Operational model guidance continues to suggest a period of
unsettled wet weather for the forecast area Sunday night into middle
next week. As the initial upper wave lifts into the northern plains,
an associated cold front will Sage southward into the area,
eventually stalling as upper support quickly lifts away from the
region, with flow parallel respective to the front over the region.
This surface frontal boundary will reside across/near the County Warning Area over a
multi-day period, with several upper waves rotating around the
longwave trough. This surface focus and upper ascent, along with
ample deep moisture, will be the catalyst for periods of showers and
thunderstorms across the area. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with the high precipitable water values, and areas with repeated moderate
to heavy rainfall may become susceptible to localized flooding as
the multi-day event progresses. Specific locations and timing of the
heaviest precipitation still remain challenging to pinpoint, but the
overall signal certainly suggests periods of active weather ahead.
At this time, the severe weather potential looks low, as the
stronger shear for storm organization should remain well Post-
frontal and separated from the stronger instability.
Chances for precipitation should gradually end as the aforementioned
frontal boundary sags south of the forecast area as the upper trough
progresses eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. Cooler and
drier air will advect into the region, with highs Thursday and
Friday in the 70s.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 641 PM CDT Friday Sep 4 2015
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Decreasing southerly winds are anticipated tonight, then south to
southwest winds will increase during the late morning Saturday ahead
of an approaching cold front, gusting to 20-22 kts during the
afternoon. Scattered cumulus is also expected to develop by late
morning to early afternoon, but with bases around or above 6 kft.