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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
612 am CDT Tue may 26 2015

Discussion...
issued at 455 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Today - wednesday:

Vorticity Max which lifted out of West Texas yesterday and helped
generate the mesoscale convective complex that roared through East Texas has attempted to merge
with the NE/Kansas upper trough. Hard to say if this process has been
successful. Operational models appear to wash out the vorticity Max
currently over east central Kansas while allowing a separate h7
vorticity Max to rotate east through the NE/Kansas upper trough and
across northern MO this afternoon.

Near term portion of forecast is tied to radar trends which shows a
fairly expansive region of tropical type showers with a few
thunderstorms. The entire region of rain is starting to lift
northeast. Have followed the trend of the hrrr and gone with
categorical pops for much of northern and west central MO this
morning. Think we'll see scattered afternoon convection over
northern MO in response to the above mentioned h7 vorticity Max
spinning through that area. A weak cold front/convergent zone is
expected to drift south through the County Warning Area tonight and will provide
additional lift for scattered convection.

Also watching area of loosely organized convection coming out of nm
and into the Texas Panhandle. Can see some rotation in water vapor
imagery. NAM and sref seem to have best handle of this feature and
they both lift it northeast today. Am expecting to see scattered
convection reform with this feature and likely affect at least the
far southern counties this evening/overnight. So have upped pops
this region.

Wednesday should be relatively quiet with low chance pops tied to
weak convergence with whatever is left of the weak cold front.

Thursday - weekend:

Very unsettled pattern as upper flow backs to the southwest and a
series of weak embedded disturbances lift northeast through the
Central Plains. Eventually a broad upper trough will shift east out
of the central rockies over the weekend and enhance precipitation
chances for at least Saturday. Deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
will once again flow northward and gradually result in a tropical
environment by Thursday night. Medium range models have been hitting
the pops hard with only minor run-to-run changes. See no reason to
deviate from likely pops during this period. Due to recent heavy
rains leaving sub-soil saturated will need to be watchful for
flooding issues as progged soundings once again are suggestive of
warm-rain processes.

Have some concern that the model pops are too low as both the
GFS/European model (ecmwf) still have the upper trough just passing through MO. Think
the model blended pops have not picked up on this. Sunday is looking
a bit chilly since we'll be under an extensive cloud shield with
scattered convection.

Monday:

Finally should see the start of drying out as the upper trough
should have passed east of the region with subsidence overspreading
the region.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 608 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Large area of tropical type rain will gradually lift northeast and
out of northwest and west central MO by mid-morning and northern MO
by noon hour. However, scattered afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms look like they;ll reform across northern MO. Otherwise,
despite the rain ceilings have remained generally VFR. Should see
clouds scatter from the southwest this afternoon.

Additional area of showers and storms are expected to spread into
west central MO late this evening as a system lifts out of the Texas
Panhandle.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...Flash Flood Watch until 10 am CDT this morning for ksz102.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 10 am CDT this morning for moz001>005-
011-012.

&&

$$

Discussion...mj
aviation...mj

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