Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
352 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 351 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

The prolonged light wintry system continues through the evening and
possibly through the overnight period tonight. The cold air in place
across the region will likely remain in place with little to no
modification, and might actually cool a little overnight. But even
overnight cooling will be somewhat tempered by the cloud deck
remaining in place. Still expecting temps to remain below freezing
across most of the area. Forecast soundings through the night
struggle to dry much, especially in the lowest levels, so while
steady light freezing rain isn't likely, there is a chance for
intermittent, off and on, light rain and sleet through the overnight
hours tonight. While further ice accumulation is unlikely it's still
possible that a glazing of ice can still form on elevated surfaces,
bridge decks, and isolated roadways across the area, causing vehicle
slideoffs. Areas across far northern Missouri will see a better
chance for dry conditions through the overnight hours, although
light intermittent/isolated freezing drizzle could still occur.
Given the steady mid level southwest flow aloft, there is still a
decent tap to the tropical/subtropical moisture source responsible
for the widespread rain over the past couple days, so chances for
precipitation will remain in the forecast almost every day through
the weekend, before the large upper trough finally ejects out and
through the area. Despite north/northeast surface winds late in the week
temperatures should gradually rise to above freezing across most of
the area, save the far northern portions of Missouri, so most of the
precipitation that falls after tonight should remain liquid. The
areas of far northern Missouri where temps struggle to get above
freezing could see some very minor accumulations of ice through the
late week and into the weekend.

Long term...(monday through friday)
issued at 351 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

The cutoff upper low that has been spinning over the intermountain
west will begin shift eastward into the center of the country
early next week. This will induce southerly low level flow with
moisture streaming back north. With a well pronounced warm nose
aloft and sub-freezing surface temperatures to start the day off,
especially over northern Missouri, freezing rain or sleet looks
likely across the northern portions of the forecast area Monday
morning. With the upper low and its associated surface low tracking
to the north, surface warm advection should lift temperatures above
freezing across the entire forecast area. This will shift the
freezing rain/sleet threat further to the north. By Monday night,
temperatures fall back below freezing in the wake of the system, but
by this time strong subsidence should also end much of the
precipitation across northern Missouri. However, there may be some
lingering snow showers/ light snow overnight, depending on the
proximity of the low and the amount of moisture wrapping into the
back side of the trough.

The remainder of the extended should be quiet with a bit of a
warming trend. Dry high pressure will move into the region behind
the above mentioned low and help to suppress any precipitation
chances. Aloft, a ridge should traverse the region with increasing
heights and thicknesses allowing for temperatures to warm back into
the 50s Friday and Saturday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1153 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Low level stratus will likely stick around for the remainder of the
forecast period, bouncing between IFR and MVFR for periods. Light
freezing rain will persist through the next several hours, but might
go away by this evening, leaving off and on freezing drizzle for the
overnight hours and early morning hours on Saturday. Visibility, like
ceilings, will vary between MVFR and VFR, so tempo groups will likely
be needed for the next several hours to capture the frequently
fluctuating conditions.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 am CST Saturday for ksz025-057-

Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for ksz057-060.

MO...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 am CST Saturday for moz012-013-

Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for moz038>040-043>046-



Short term...Leighton
long term...cdb

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations