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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the 
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers 
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures 
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing 
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should 
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with 
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should 
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern 
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing. 
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning 
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs 
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations 
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late 
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight 
will fall into the teens to lower 20s. 

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the 
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity 
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to 
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west 
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south 
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow, 
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect 
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the 
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly 
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air 
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the 
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night, 
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind 
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for 
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to 
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend 
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period 
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on 
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday 
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while 
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast 
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20 
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday 
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface 
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as 
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal 
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across 
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front 
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent 
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid 
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure 
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its 
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s 
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the 
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the 
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR conditions will continue for the next few hours at TAF sites
before mist/drizzle ends and low ceilings slowly improve to MVFR.
Uncertainty exists with ceilings heights by late this morning into the
afternoon, but should see some form of MVFR nearby terminals. Overall
should see ceilings return to high-end MVFR or even VFR this
evening/overnight, but timing is uncertain. Otherwise, wind will
remain gusty today and gradually veer as a cold front
approaches/moves through the area. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR 
     MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Blair





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