Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1112 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015

Discussion...
issued at 313 PM CDT Monday Jun 1 2015

Clouds have been hanging out across much of the forecast area
today with portions of northern Missouri seeing more breaks in the
cloud cover as compared to locations further south. 12z top
sounding, in line with GFS and NAM bufr soundings, shows low-level
moisture trapped beneath a layer of rather dry air between around
850mb up through 700mb or so. This trapped lower-level has been
keeping ceilings rather low and overcast. Flow throughout the mid
to lower levels of the vertical extent of the atmosphere has been
rather weak and variable, with southeasterly flow closer to the
surface, becoming northwesterly aloft. This messy pattern of
sorts has kept the moisture in the region as there really isn't
much to move it out of the area. While some of the drier air to
the north has allowed for some erosion of the clouds, it likely
won't be enough to break them up until much later tonight. That
said though, additional moisture advecting into the region will
still keep at least some clouds in the area through much of the week.

The next chance for precip enters into northwest MO and NE Kansas as early as
Wednesday morning. Looking at the overall pattern, relatively weak
upper-level ridging will be extending from Mexico northeastward
into eastern Kansas and western MO through the latter half of the
week. With at least the northern half of the forecast area on its
periphery, along with southerly flow at/near the surface with an
area of lower pressure across the Western Plains, this will setup
this area for another period of unsettled weather, although isn't
indicative of being quite as extensive impactfully speaking as has
been par for the course as of late. This is still several days out
though (thursday through the early part of the weekend) so this
could change as the details come into better view. For example,
will need to monitor how much instability ends up advecting into
the area, shear parameters, and so forth. Regardless though,
thunderstorm chances are in the forecast beginning later Wednesday
through at least the start of the weekend, and potentially through
the weekend as well.

Throughout the entire forecast period, temperatures should be
rebounding back toward normal for this time of year with tomorrow
perhaps the coolest day with the possible cloud cover lingering
around. Lows will respond accordingly with mid 50s greeting
everyone Tuesday morning, then mostly in the 60s for the rest of
the period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1110 PM CDT Monday Jun 1 2015

A steady stream of moisture is maintaining the MVFR ceilings across
the area and as diurnal cooling continues, bases should fall into the
low MVFR range. This looks to persist until at least tomorrow
morning. Bases look to rise by tomorrow afternoon with VFR conditions
expected by then. Winds will generally be less than 10 kts and veer
from the east-southeast to the southeast tomorrow afternoon.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
aviation...cdb

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations