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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
321 am CST Wed Mar 4 2015

Short term...(today through Thursday night)
issued at 319 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

Today: primary weather of interest in the short-term will be focused
within the next 6-9 hours with the potential for some accumulating
snowfall and cold temperatures. Radar currently shows two separate
bands of snowfall; one over far northwest MO/southeast NE/SW IA, and one over
south central Kansas. Models, including high-resolution models, have
done a poor job with handling the first band. Based on radar
observations and the eastern progression into deeper dry air, a
gradual weakening is expected with the first band. Still, light
accumulating snowfall is possible over northwest MO over the next few
hours. Further south, east central Kansas into west central Missouri
is likely to receive snowfall during the remainder of the morning
hours. The heaviest activity should remain just south of the kc
Metro area, generally between Harrisonville and Nevada, where up to
one inch of snow is possible over wc MO/ec Kansas. Elsewhere, scattered
flurries are possible if light snow can make it through a dry layer
around 850 mb. With the mid/high cloudiness expected to persist and
cold air advection, highs today will remain unseasonably cold, with
readings in the 20s.

Tonight/thursday: the cold airmass will be firmly in place tonight,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows tonight will fall into the single
digits to the lower teens. Wind chill values over northern Missouri
should fall below zero overnight. Little moderation is expected on
Thursday with highs only warming into the 20s to lower 30s. With
high pressure moving through, wind speeds will be light, along with
mostly clear skies.

Long term...(friday through tuesday)
issued at 319 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

The extended time frame continues to look dry and mild. Although,
models are out of phase with surface features through much of this
period, the synoptic pattern generally reveals a pattern providing
for above average temperatures through the period. Saturday reveals
weak northwesterly flow aloft as a upper level shortwave trough
moves through the upper Midwest. Sunday the northwest flow begins to
relax and by Monday the flow becomes more zonal. By Tuesday, weak
upper level ridging that was over the western Continental U.S. Begins to spread
east into the region and temperatures are expected to further warm.
Expect highs in the 50s this weekend. However, as we move into the
upcoming work week, highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s by the
time we reach Tuesday and Wednesday which, is 10 to 15 degrees above


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1124 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

MVFR ceilings will push south overnight as high pressure to the north
begins to build. Increased winds out of the north may become gusty at
times, but will generally remain around 15 kts before weakening
slightly around 12z. Bkn layer will then move over the area from the
NW, with a slight chance of flurries becoming a factor through the
morning as a trough axis crosses into the Central Plains. Minimal
impact is expected with light intensity, should activity develop.
Otherwise, cigs will lift in the early afternoon with northerly winds
rounding out the period.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Blair
long term...73

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