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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
311 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

Short term...(this evening through Thursday afternoon)
issued at 310 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

For much of the County Warning Area the low clouds have been hanging tough with slow
erosion on the northern edge. This has resulted in highly variable
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Further west in
Kansas lies a warm front with upper 80s to low 90s and very humid air.
That airmass will work in here on Friday, but until then we will see
cloudy skies again tonight with a small chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms. Latest model guidance have drier solutions for tonight
compared to earlier runs as forcing and instability fields are rather
meager. Based on the data I lowered pops just a bit for tonight
having only the western third of the County Warning Area with slight chance to chance

For tomorrow the clouds should slowly mix giving way to hopefully
more sunshine compared to today with temperatures in the middle 70s
along with light southeasterly winds. There is only a slight chance
for showers/thunderstorms for mainly the western zones closest to
the warm front. Tomorrow night should be dry leading into Friday.
On Friday the warm front rapidly lifts north in response to a
developing upper level trough. Once the front mixes north, very
warm and humid air returns to the region.

Long term...(thursday evening through wednesday)
issued at 310 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

A positively tilted trough will move through the northern plains and
upper Midwest on Saturday, pushing a cold front into the area.
Models are a little slower with the front, so have delayed the start
of the precipitation in northwestern Missouri until during the
daytime period. Also, with the strongest dynamics associated with
the trough well north of the area, there will be little upper-level
support to aid the front. Surface and low level winds look to be
strongly veered as well and instability is modest at best. So the
potential for widespread rainfall loos to have diminished some,
especially the farther south one is away from the upper-level support
of the upper trough. So, have lowered pops for the day Saturday,
though much of the area remains with about 40 to 50 percent chance.
With veered winds and the upper trough moving away from its trailing
front, the front may be somewhat slow to clear the entire forecast
area, so there will remain a chance for showers and storms well into
the overnight hours. Overall, the threat of severe weather looks
rather low as instability is modest and shear is weak, in addition to
there being limited forcing.

Once that front does clear the area, high pressure will settle into
the region bringing cooler and drier weather to the region through
the early part of next week. By the middle of the week, as that high
shifts to the east, winds will become more southerly ahead of the
next upper trough. This may bring another chance for storms to
eastern Kansas and western Missouri by Wednesday of next week.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1224 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

The low cloud deck and reduced visibilities are expected to persist
through much of the day. The exception should be stj where ceilings
should improve to MVFR by mid-afternoon as visible satellite trends
show clearing close to the terminal and working toward the terminal.
Otherwise apart from a brief period of MVFR ceilings late this afternoon
at mci and mkc all model guidance indicates IFR to LIFR ceilings and visible
to redevelop overnight. After sunrise tomorrow ceilings and visible should
slowly improve to MVFR. As for precip chances, at this time kept the
terminals dry as latest model data has the better chances for
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain west and south of the terminals overnight tonight.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...pietrycha
long term...cdb

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