Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Discussion...
issued at 203 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

The inherited forecast appears to be on track for the next several
days with the latest model guidance. Late tonight the area should
see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a
low amplitude middle-level trough moving in from the northwest coupled
with modest isentropic ascent / warm air advection. Instability and
shear profiles are support for the possibility of small hail with any
of the stronger storms...severe storms are not anticipated. The best
chances to see precipitation exists across the western half of the County Warning Area. The
activity should persist into the middle-morning hours before another
low amplitude trough moves through. Additionally a warm front will
slowly mix into the region from the west serving as the focus for the
redevelopment of thunderstorms during the day tomorrow and continue
into the evening. As with tonight's activity the best chances of
seeing any precipitation will be across the western half of the County Warning Area.

Thursday and Friday should be dry with moderating temperatures
heading into the weekend. On Saturday a deep trough will move across
the northern plains and upper Midwest. As it does some of the
moisture from the remnants of Odile will be advected into the system.
Furthermore, moisture advection out of the Gulf of Mexico will be
rather robust thus setting the stage for the possibility of
widespread rainfall...some locally heavy. Dprog/dt of the GFS and ec
have backed off on quantitative precipitation forecast amounts with the bulk of the precipitation remaining
well south of the County Warning Area. At this time I stayed the course of a wetter
solution but obviously something to monitor should the latest drier
trends continue. On Sunday the area clears out with drier weather and
near normal temperatures to start the new work week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 627 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

The near looks to remain VFR with increasing mid lvl clouds expected
tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the area after
midnight with hi-res models bringing thunderstorms into the vc of the
terminals around 10z with MVFR cigs. Thunderstorms will shift south
of the terminals by mid-morning with cigs scattering out around
2-3kft. Winds through the period will be light out of the southeast.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...pietrycha
aviation...73

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations