Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1152 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015

Discussion...
issued at 343 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a Stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping US in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the County Warning Area. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the County Warning Area. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn't reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1152 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015

MVFR conditions rapidly improving early this afternoon as drier air
moves into the area. Expect cigs to scatter out this afternoon with
VFR conditions expected through much of the fcst period. Winds from
the northeast between 10-15 kts will gradually weaken to 4-8 kts this
evening.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
aviation...32

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations