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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
630 am CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

issued at 351 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Short term (today through tomorrow night):

The main weather concerns for this forecast package will be the
potential for a couple rounds of severe storms. The first of these
potential rounds of severe storms is expected to affect the western
County Warning Area this evening/tonight. A second round of severe weather will
again be possible for most of the County Warning Area on Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri this morning with a few showers further east.
Showers have been training over those areas for several hours and
radar estimates about 1.00"-1.50" of precip has already fallen across
these areas. Luckily, flash flood guidance for these areas is high,
around 3.5"-4.0" for 6 hours. Nonetheless this will be an area that
will have to be monitored with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms likely over the next 48 hours. These storms will
continue to move slowly eastward over the County Warning Area through the morning
hours. Cloud cover and showers through the morning hours will cause
instability to be slow to recover across the area this afternoon
however, thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across eastern
Kansas where skies may clear out earlier. This evening looks to be
the best chance for severe thunderstorms to develop as a lead
shortwave ejects out from an upper level trough across the eastern
rockies. This will occur as a 40-50kt 850mb southwesterly low level jet get
ramped up across eastern Kansas. Models are depicting a weak surface
boundary bisecting the County Warning Area. Good instability and lift will make large
hail and damaging winds the main threats this evening/tonight across
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. However with the weak surface
boundary in the area there is some potential for tornadic
development. 0-6km shear will be good with the swly low level jet at 850mb and
a 80-90kt mid level jet impinging on the area. However, 0-1km shear
is not as strong as winds near the surface will be light...what is of
more concern is that they are backed to the south-southeast. So, the most likely
scenario is that initial convection develops as supercells across
eastern Kansas with the initial threats being large hail/damaging
winds with a possible tornado or two. Supercells should eventually
merge into a more linear structure with damaging winds and perhaps an
isolated tornado being the main threat as storms move into western

Storms will continue through the early morning hours Thursday across
the County Warning Area weakening toward daybreak as the low level jet weakens. We will then
again turn our attention to the west as the aforementioned upper
level trough digs as it moves out into plains and forces a strong
cold front into the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop west
of the area early Thursday along the front forming a line of storms.
These storms will push into the area on Thursday with the main
threat being damaging winds. The front should finally push east of
the area by Thursday evening. The upper level trough will move
through Thursday night. Some models try to develop instability
showers as the upper trough rotates through but dry air and
subsidence behind the front should undercut any chance for showers.
Two day rain totals could be on the order of 2.5"-3.5" however as
mentioned previously, flash flood guidance is not expected to be
exceeded over any locale.

Long term (friday - tuesday):

The extended period looks much more benign then the short term
providing cold and dry conditions with a gradual warm up through the
period. On Friday, a reinforcing upper level trough will move
through the upper Midwest putting the local area under cool northwest flow
aloft. Highs Friday and Saturday will only be in the mid 50s to
lower 60s with frost being a concern for Saturday morning as lows
drop into the mid to upper 30s. Northwest flow begins to relax
across the area by the second half of the weekend in to beginning of
next week. By Tuesday, highs will return to near normal with highs
in the low to mid 70s.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 630 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Very challenging aviation forecast this go around as several rounds
of convection will be possible at the terminals this afternoon and
evening. Morning convection is pushing east of the terminals this
morning however there could be a few showers in the vc of the
terminals for the remainder of the morning hours with cigs around
8kft, this afternoon expect bkn cu around 5kft. The first challenge
is the potential for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. With
bkn-ovc skies throughout most of the day it may be difficult for
thunderstorms to develop however, models indicate the potential for
scattered storms across the area so have a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention at the
terminals for the afternoon. The better chance for thunderstorms will
come tonight as a low level jet will spark convection across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri after 03z. There is the potential for
some very strong storms reducing vsbys/cigs to IFR conds however,
have just tried to nail down trends and timing at this time. Winds
will be out of the south today btn 10-15kts. Tonight winds will
diminish while backing to the southeast.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...



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