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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1210 am CDT Sat Aug 2 2014

Update...
issued at 944 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

Have added patchy fog for late tonight over all but the central
portion of the County Warning Area. Believe surface dewpoints will stay up and with
light winds and clear skies conditions are favorable for fog to form.
Not convinced on it being widespread or dense as there is a chance
that the dewpoints could also fall with the temperatures and we end
up with a lot of dew. Bufr soundings and latest sref visibility prog
do hint that fog is at least possible.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 244 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

A weak wave embedded in northwest upper-level flow has led to
isolated showers and thunderstorms over far northern Missouri this
afternoon. This activity will remain isolated to widely scattered in
nature, focused mainly east of the US 65 corridor and north of I-70.
Precipitation will die down quickly later this evening once daytime
heating is lost.

Little change to the weather pattern through the weekend with
persistent northwest upper flow. Increasing temperatures aloft should
increase inhibition and prevent much if any precipitation from
developing from any weak impulses that may drop down. Temperatures
will be close to average through the period.

Long term...(monday through friday)
issued at 244 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

Warming trend to continue into the first part of the work week as
upper pattern gradually begins to flatten. Both European model (ecmwf) and Gem
models warm 800 mb temperatures back to greater than 20c by Monday
particularly over northwest Missouri, which should lead to a return
of temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.

A weak upper vorticity Max forecast to rotate down the
upper ridge into the Central Plains by Tuesday. Feature not
particular strong but could justify some slight chance pops mainly
over north central and northeast Missouri. Better signals for
precipitation chances in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe when a
surface boundary works southward into the forecast area.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1206 am CDT Sat Aug 2 2014

Couple of upper level impulses dropping southeast from the Dakotas
will likely remain northwest of the terminals through early Saturday
evening resulting in VFR conditions with light winds. Models do hint
that isolated convection could move into northern MO late Saturday
evening.

Patchy MVFR fog expected to form over most of northern and central
MO shortly before sunrise but only affect the kstj terminal.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

$$

Update...mj
short term...hawblitzel
long term...Mitchell
aviation...mj

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