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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
334 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Discussion...(today through monday)
issued at 334 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Areas of showers focusing along the elevated cold front will
gradually shift southward over the next several hours as its parent
trough pushes east southeast, allowing precipitation chances to
gradually taper off during the morning - early afternoon hours.
Although these showers will be fairly efficient rain producers,
generally less than a half inch of rainfall is expected out of this
second band of showers.

Quiet and cooler than average conditions are expected behind this
area of showers as high pressure begins to drift into the region,
limiting high temperatures to the low to middle 70s and sustaining cool
northeast winds through the daytime hours. Drier air will also make
this afternoon noticeably cooler, in addition to very few breaks in
the clouds as a second system begins lifting into the Central Plains.

Showers and thunderstorms producing areas of very heavy rain will be
the main concern in the forecast period, and should begin early
Wednesday morning as a shortwave trough superimposes over a slowly
northward-moving warm front. The most likely area for heavy rainfall
will be across the southeastern half of the cwa, and the Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect through Wednesday evening when precipitation
should begin exiting to the northeast. An additional 1-2+ inches is
expected on top of the heavy rain that fell last evening, and could
occur in periods of high rainfall rates.

Yet another system will follow on the heels of wednesday's storms,
bringing periods of showers and storms Thursday evening through
Friday morning. Currently, the track of the system brings most
rainfall through northern MO which will be an area relatively unable-
scathed by the last few rounds of heavy precipitation, but will have
to watch for any potential shifts southward in very broad, gradual
southwest flow.

A bit of a drier period is possible for the weekend into early next
week as upper-level high pressure over the southeastern U.S. Begins
to retrograde and allows ridging to build over the eastern plains
through the Ohio Valley. Warmer temperatures are also expected in
this type of pattern, and highs are expected to be in the 90s by
Saturday and especially Sunday.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)

Transient IFR ceilings will accompany a line of showers over all
kc area terminals over the next several hours, before translating
southward and away from the terminals. By middle-morning, VFR
ceilings are expected at all taf sites. Gusty northeast winds will
diminish slightly but remain sustained at 10 kts or greater during
the daylight hours, then will lighten and veer to the south late
in the period. Another round of showers and storms will become
possible by the end of the forecast period.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ksz057-060-

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for moz013>017-




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