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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
333 am CST sun Feb 14 2016

Discussion...
issued at 331 am CST sun Feb 14 2016

Watching a couple areas of developing precipitation early this
morning. The first is over Iowa and eastern Nebraska ahead of a
shortwave trough dropping out of the northern plains. The second is
across eastern Kansas into southwest MO ahead of a strong 60-kt low-level
jet. The latter area should continue to expand into west central and
into central Missouri through the morning, where forecast soundings
suggest a mix of sleet and snow, and possibly light freezing rain or
freezing drizzle as well. Given the very dry air just off the ground,
current thinking is that sleet may be the more common precip type
across these areas this morning with only light accumulation.
However, if freezing rain/drizzle starts to dominate then a Winter
Weather Advisory may need to be expanded into areas near and south of
US 50.

Both areas of precipitation should merge and overspread much of
northern, central and eastern Missouri later this morning.
Precipitation across these areas should be mostly snow, with as much
as 1 to 2 inches possible near the US 63 corridor where a Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect through the afternoon. Warm air
advection later today will allow for a quick warm up with much of
western MO and eastern Kansas rising into the middle to upper 40s by
afternoon.

The remainder of the forecast looks increasingly Spring-like as
ridging to the west gradually makes its way into the center of the
nation by Thursday and Friday. This will allow temperatures to rise
into the 50s Monday through Wednesday, and well into the 60s Thursday
and Friday with a few 70 degree readings not out of the question. The
only mentionable chance for precipitation will arrive with another
weak clipper system Monday night and early Tuesday. Could see some
light snow across north central Missouri with this system and mostly
rain elsewhere.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Widespread VFR cloud cover around 6k ft agl expected to lower into
MVFR category towards sunrise with patchy freezing drizzle and sleet
forming over parts of west central MO, mostly just south and east of
Kansas City and spread towards central MO during the morning hours.
Further north areas of light snow expected to form over north central
and northeast MO with some accumulations the further east you go.
Precipitation will quickly exit east and likely be out of most of the
forecast area by early afternoon with ceilings likewise improving to
VFR.



&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for moz008-
017-025-033.

&&

$$

Update...mj
discussion...hawblitzel
aviation...mj

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