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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
513 am CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Discussion...
issued at 306 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Short term (today - Wednesday night):

The short term will be characterized by dry conditions with
temperatures well above normal. Today, an upper level shortwave
moving through the upper Midwest will force a weak cold front
through the area during the afternoon. A lack of cold air is
associated with this front however it will provide for enhanced
mixing during the afternoon. With 925mb temps ranging from 5c to 10c
from east to west respectively this will yield highs in the 50s with
a few locations in the western County Warning Area and Metro reaching 60. After
midnight tonight, high pressure will begin to encroach on the County Warning Area
from the west. This will help temperatures fall back into the upper
20s to lower 30s Tuesday morning. High pressure will remain in
control for most of the day Tuesday. However, late in the day, the
high pressure ridge will slide east as an upper level shortwave
rounds an upper level ridge over the eastern rockies. This will
force a cold front into the plains and tighten the pressure gradient
across the western County Warning Area. This will lead to temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 50s over the western County Warning Area while the eastern cwa,
remaining under the influence of the high pressure ridge, will only
achieve the upper 40s. Wednesday, could potentially be a record
setter as the high temperature of 65 degrees at mci for the date
will be threatened. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge over The
Rockies will be flattened out by the aforementioned upper level
shortwave as it slides east into the area. However, weak upper
ridging will still be present over the region. 850mb temperatures
will range between 10c-13c across the area which will yield highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Late in the day Wednesday the upper
level shortwave will push into the region forcing a cold front into
the County Warning Area. The frontal passage will remain dry Wednesday night as the
better moisture will be north of the County Warning Area. However, this front will
bring an end to the well above normal warmth for the end of January.

Long term (thursday - sunday):

An upper level shortwave will strength as it pushes east of the area
leaving the area under cool northwest flow aloft. Couple that with
modest cold air advection on Thursday behind a cold front and highs will return to
near normal in the ow to mid 40s. High pressure will move in for
Friday under continued northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Saturday however,
models have not been consistent with the evolution and phasing of
two systems. The first of these system is a deep upper level trough
over the southwestern Continental U.S. The second is an upper level shortwave
moving through the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Models
have continued to flip-flop in recent runs on phasing these two
systems. If these two system phase over the plains as the most
recent iteration of the ec and GFS would suggest that would increase
the chances of rain or snow on Saturday and Saturday night. However,
if these two systems do not phase as has been suggested by the
previous runs of the ec and GFS the two systems would split the area
leaving conditions dry locally. Consequently, have opted not to
deviate from the blended solution providing for slight chance and
low end chance pops for the area on Saturday. Behind the systems on
Sunday, high pressure is expected to build back into the area under
reinforced northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 513 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

VFR conds are expected thru the taf pd with the main concern for
aviators (other than a record snow storm along the east coast) will
be gusty and veering winds today. Winds this morning are light out of
the SW however they will pick up by late morning out of the west-southwest
(except at stj where winds will be out of the w) around 10-15kts with
gusts to around 20kts. This afternoon a cold front will move through
the terminals and winds will veer to the northwest btn 10-15kts with gusts
to around 20kts. Winds will subside this evening, while veering to
the north btn 5-10kts. Otrw...expect just sct high cirrus clouds today
before skies clr tonight.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
aviation...73

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