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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1208 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 406 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Forecast appears to remain on track with widespread rain
overspreading the entire forecast area. As was anticipated this rain
appears to be very efficient in accumulating, as over 1/2 inch fell
at the office in about 1.5 to 2 hours time. Very good moisture
influx characterized by precipitable water in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range will
continue to fuel the steady efficient rain. Some fairly major
changes to the forecast are highlighted in this package, as early-
day observations behind the surging cold front revealed much
steadier falling temperatures than models ever grasped onto. Even
short term models were having a difficult time keeping up with the
rate of temperature decrease through the morning and afternoon hours
behind the front. Making this situation muddier is that the freezing
isothermal line is still located north of the forecast area, likely
right on the doorstep of Atchison co (mo). So with the cold air
being more progressive than anticipated, yet the 32 degree line
still lagging to the north it creates a forecast difficulty trying
to figure out how far south the freezing line will actually get over
the next 12 to 24 hours. 12z NAM came in quite a bit cooler than
previous runs, and indicates cold enough air to change precip type
from rain to freezing rain as far south as the northern kc Metro
area as early as midnight, but more likely deeper into the overnight
hours. Despite this change in spatial extent of the freezing rain
the gradient separating possible accumulating ice and continuous liquid
rain will be rather tight and could run through the kc Metro,
meaning portions of the northern kc Metro could see ice accretions
of around .10" while portions of the southern Metro nearer to Lee's
Summit could only see a very minor glazing. As a result of the
concern for some accumulating ice have expanded the Freezing Rain
Advisory a couple counties south and east, to encompass the kc
Metro. Later in the night, perhaps into the daytime hours on Friday
low level temperatures could actually drop enough to create some
sleet. With the cold air remaining in place through Friday and
little warming anticipated its conceivable that light freezing
drizzle or sleet could occur through the day on Friday, mainly
across western Missouri and eastern Kansas.

Further to the south, moderate to heavy rain will persist through
the night on Thursday night and into Friday. Still anticipating
several inches of rain south of I-70, through the next 24 to 36
hours. With local soils and streams still somewhat saturated from
previous rains areal river flooding is still a concern. With several
rivers forecast to go into flood based on forecast precipitation
amounts a Flood Watch will remain in effect through at least Friday
evening. While river flooding is the main concern widespread flash
flooding is not anticipated, although some areas could see water
flowing over roads.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 406 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Surface high pressure will remain north of the forecast area through
Sunday which will keep surface temperatures on the cold side.
However, there will be a persistent layer of above freezing
temperatures aloft which greatly complicates the forecast. During
the day Saturday, the heaviest precipitation should be well to our
south. However, there may still be pockets of pockets of light
precipitation as the region remains in moist southwesterly flow.
Surface temperatures should warm from the lower 30s to the middle
30s through the day which will allow for any overnight/morning
freezing rain to become rain. By Monday into Tuesday, the main upper
low, which has been cutoff over the intermountain west, should begin
to move east into the plains. This will result in another round of
wintry precipitation for the region. Initially, Sunday night into
Monday morning, this could be in the form of freezing rain or a mix
over northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. By Monday night,
a transition to light snow is possible as the upper trough and
associated surface low track east northeast, through northern
Missouri. By the middle to later portion of next week the weather
becomes quieter. The the flow across the country becomes more zonal
with a drier high pressure area over the center of the country.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1153 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

The large band of mainly rain currently stretching from southeast
and east central Kansas through northeast MO will gradually shift east
overnight. As the rain ends subfreezing temperatures will slowly ooze
south. Am expecting patchy freezing rain to affect east central Kansas
and northwest/west central MO overnight through Friday afternoon.
Good chance the freezing rain will increase in coverage Friday
morning over east central Kansas into west central MO.

Low end MVFR ceilings with pockets of IFR expected over the region
overnight with a chance for them to become predominantly IFR by
Friday morning.

Northerly winds have not been as strong or gusty this evening and
with the gradient relaxing on Friday they will likely weaken during
the afternoon and evening hours.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...Flood Watch through Friday evening for ksz057-060.

Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for ksz025-102.

Freezing Rain Advisory from 3 am to 6 PM CST Friday for ksz057-

MO...Flood Watch through Friday evening for moz038>040-043>046-053-

Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for moz002>005-011-

Freezing Rain Advisory from 3 am to 6 PM CST Friday for moz013-

Winter Storm Warning until 9 am CST Friday for moz001.



Short term...Leighton
long term...cdb

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