Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1242 PM CDT Wed may 22 2013
Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 254 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
The upper-level low will pass just to the north of the forecast area
this afternoon as it tracks to the east southeast. This close
proximity may lead to a few showers across northern and northeastern
Missouri this afternoon. These should be mainly diurnally driven so
think the best chances will be during the afternoon with dissipation
around 00z or so.
A cool and dry surface ridge will build into the region Thursday and
with the upper storm exiting to the east and shortwave ridging aloft,
we should see quiet and comfortable weather. Highs should range from
the upper 60s to the lower 70s with humidity in the 40 to 50 percent
range.
For Friday and especially Friday night, chances for precipitation
will increase. At the surface, the high pressure center will be
sliding off into the Great Lakes. This will eventually turn our
winds to the southeast but trajectories for our area will basically
be recirculating the cooler and drier air into the region. While it
looks to a bit warmer, highs should still be in the mid 70s and
humidity values of 40 to 50 percent will continue to result in
comfortable weather conditions. Have kept a mention of low pops
across eastern Kansas and far western Missouri for the daytime
hours. But not very confident that precipitation will make it this
far east through the day. The better chances will come over night
when broad and moist isentropic ascent will spread across the area.
Still the chances look to be less than 50 percent at this time. The
best chances for storms should be more across central Kansas and
Nebraska where the nose of the low-level jet will be focused.
Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 254 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Warming temperatures and on-and-off thunderstorm chances will spread
through the weekend and the early half of next week, as ridging
gradually strengthens over the eastern plains and a series of
shortwave troughs push through the forecast area. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated through the end of the forecast period,
due to a lack of low-level focus for convective initiation underneath
the mid-level disturbances.
The best chances for precipitation will be on Saturday afternoon and
into the evening as both the ec and GFS bring a fairly well-defined
shortwave trough through northern or central missouri; and then
again on Sunday as trailing energy continues to push through the
region. Afterward, lower-end precipitation chances will spread
through the rest of the forecast period as a multitude of shortwave
troughs head into the region; however, the timing and placement of
these features becomes very uncertain as we move further into next
week.
Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be near to slightly above normal
as ridging begins to set up over the region; for Monday through
Wednesday, highs will hit a few degrees above normal in the lower
to mid 80's. Lows will also be several degrees above normal in the
mid 60's throughout the long-range forecast period.
&&
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1235 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Cold air advection tied to cyclonic circulation around deep low over
Iowa will maintain large area of MVFR cigs across northern/central MO
and northeast Kansas through mid afternoon. Mixing should allow cigs to
rise to low end VFR later this afternoon and continue through
tonight. Low level moisture should remain plentiful and BUFKIT
soundings and condensation pressure deficit progs indicate another
southward surge of MVFR cigs out of Iowa/northern MO will push into the
terminals Thursday morning.
Any instability showers this afternoon should remain north of the
terminals over northern MO and dissipate a few hours after sunset.
&&
Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&
$$
Short term...cdb
long term...Laflin
aviation...mj
