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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service quadrant cities Iowa Illinois
336 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

issued at 335 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Secondary cold front moving through the northern County Warning Area early this
morning with a band of low clouds with the it drops southward.
North winds increase briefly to 25 miles per hour and dewpoints drop 5 degrees.
Otherwise skies were clear and 3 am temperatures were in the upper
50s to middle 60s.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 335 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Today...north winds at 10 to 15 miles per hour will continue to bring drier
and cooler fresh air from Canada. Scattered to broken cumulus
clouds can be expected to dot the landscape. Models including the
hrrr mesoscale want to paint some light quantitative precipitation forecast in the form of isolated to
scattered showers across western and central Iowa today. There is a
short wave in Minnesota that the models drop southeast but the airmass in
the dvn County Warning Area appears too dry to support anything more than an isolated
shower or sprinkle...but coverage too small to mention in the grids.
Maximum temperatures will be mainly in the middle 70s which is about
10 degrees cooler than normal for late July.

Tonight...high pressure ridge should remain west of the dvn County Warning Area with
clear to partly cloudy skies. North wind should remain around 5 miles per hour
most of the night. I will continue to forecast minimum temperatures
in the middle to upper 50s. However...if winds can go calm for several
hours...especially in the west closer to the ridge...then readings
may drop into the lower 50s at some locations. Not expecting record
lows as they are in the middle to upper 40s in late July.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 335 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Northwest flow aloft and close proximity of surface high pressure will keep the
area cooler than normal and mainly dry through midweek. Isolated PM
showers can/T be ruled out Tuesday and Wednesday with cold air aloft
and any weak impulses moving through the area in northwest flow... but
any rain that does occur will be very light and brief in nature thus
have kept probability of precipitation below mention at this time. Thursday into Saturday may bring
about better chances for diurnally driven showers as more robust
shortwave energy rides southeastward within mean upper level flow and
possibly develops closed low near to east of County Warning Area. 850 mb temperatures shown
to warm only slightly from around 10-11c to 13-14c by next weekend
but anticipate more in way of cloudiness with cancellation resulting in
little day-to-day variation on temperatures (highs middle 70s to lower 80s and lows
middle 50s to lower 60s).


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 335 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Canadian high pressure building over the northern plains will
provide VFR conditions over the area tonight through Monday.
Winds will be light north to northwest. There will be a scattered
to broken cloud cover over the region with bases above 4000 feet
tonight...then fair weather cumulus clouds at that level during
the daytime hours Monday.


Dvn watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...haase
long term...05

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