Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service quadrant cities Iowa Illinois
250 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

issued at 233 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Quiet and seasonably cool temperatures reside over the upper
Midwest as a large surface high pressure system over Iowa moves
slowly southeast. Near record moisture levels over Mexico and the
extreme southwest related to Tropical Storm Odile to be watched
with northwest flow the next few days to keep the region dry with slightly
normal temperatures.


Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 233 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Short term forecast confidence assessment...above average or good
with no sensible weather issues. Light winds favoring the south
with highs and lows should be within a degree or two of forecast
with mostly clear to clear skies.

Tonight...clear skies and light winds that will tend to favor the
south to allow for mins on low side of guidance. Lows lower 40s
northeast to upper 40s southwest. Patchy fog may be possible near
rivers and low lying spots but conditions appear marginal at this time.
Similar to last night of very patchy and light fog.

Wednesday...slightly warmer as light south winds of 5 to 10 miles per hour to
allow for continued modification of our cool airmass. Highs with
some bl mixing suggested to allow for highs of 66 to 72 degrees
across the forecast area with some passing high clouds and some
fair weather cumulus clouds middle day.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 233 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Quiet and dry conditions will continue Wednesday night through
Friday as high pressure slowly moves through the Midwest.
Temperatures will slowly moderate to near normal.

Friday night on...
Friday night through Saturday night the weather becomes more active.
Moisture from Odile will arrive along with another front. The
potential is there for another widespread rain event for the area.

The model consensus has slight chance to low chance probability of precipitation Friday
night...and then chance to likely probability of precipitation for Saturday and Saturday
night. Right now it appears that Friday evening will be dry.

Sunday through Tuesday the model consensus has dry conditions as
northwest flow aloft resumes with another Canadian high moving into
the Midwest and Great Lakes. Temperatures should average a little
below normal.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 233 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

VFR conditions with fair skies and light winds favoring the south
to southwest will continue through 17/18z as high pressure overhead
moves slowly southeast.


Dvn watches/warnings/advisories...



short term...Nichols
long term...08

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations