Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan
327 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2015
Rising mslp in the wake of this mornings backdoor cold and
increased influence of a burgeoning stable lake aggregate has led
to surface winds to decidely respond out of the northeast today.
Low near surface Theta-E content has been steadily building into
southeastern Michigan and has offset diurnal heating to cap the
temperature response this afternoon. Theta-E forecasts suggest that
conditions will cool rapidly between 22-00z with help from the
nocturnal release of the marine layer. Message to communicate is
temeperatures falling into the 40s and 50s by 8 or 9pm.
Strong low tropospheric ridging will keep the main frontal zone
bottled up south of the state tonight. Expect quiet but cool
conditions for the duration of the overnight.
Conditions are expected to slowly deteriorate on Sunday as a
deepening low pressure system approaches the area from the south and
forces a warm front northward through the Ohio Valley. Did have to
adjust the timing of rain as models have back off notably with the
initial arrival of quantitative precipitation forecast...which is understandable given the amount of
dry air in place over central Great Lakes...reference kdtx and kapx
12z radiosonde observations.
Sunday morning will likely be dry with just an increase in middle and
high level clouds. A decent area of rain will then progress from
south to north across the area from early to middle afternoon into the
evening as the warm front lifts through lower Michigan. While the
instability with this system is quite limited...will maintain a
slight chance of thunder given the decent dynamics expected with
this deepening system. At most...though...expect just a rumble or
two of thunder within a more general rain.
A trailing shortwave will wrap around this main system late Sunday
night into Monday as the main low pressure center lifts through
Ontario. This wave will help focus additional showers along a cold
front that will be surging east to northeast around this initial
low. With drier air working into the area within the increasing
southwesterly flow on Monday...activity will become more scattered
with time...particularly over the southern half of the County Warning Area. Any
leftover activity during the evening will end by around midnight.
With the slower arrival of rain...temperatures will most likely warm
a couple extra degrees...especially from around Flint into the
Saginaw Valley where downsloping east southeast flow will aid in
warming to some extent. Temperatures will remain fairly mild Sunday
night into the first part of Monday as major cooling waits until the
aforementioned cold front is pulled east across the area during the
day Monday. Lows of 45 to 50 will be common Sunday night with highs
back to 60 or so on Monday before stronger cold air advection leads
to a notable cool down late afternoon/evening with temperatures then
falling into the 30s Monday night.
Overall story for the extended period next week is below
normal temperatures along with some unsettled weather. A longwave
trough will have a hold over the Great Lakes region Tuesday through
the end of the week. This will allow for continued precipitation
chances as multiple shortwaves move through the trough. Cooler
temperatures...with highs only reaching into the 50s and lows
dropping to around the freezing mark...will also be persistent
during this time.
Northeast flow will gradually become east and diminish this evening
as high pressure builds past the area through Ontario. This will in
turn allow waves to subside. The east winds will begin to increase
late tonight into Sunday as a strengthening low pressure system
approaches from the south. Small craft advisories may be needed once
again by Sunday and Sunday night as this system lifts through the
area. While gusts may approach gale force...generally stable low
level conditions over Lake Huron will limit this potential greatly.
Winds will veer from southeast to south and southwest Sunday night
into Monday as this low pressure lifts to near James Bay. Gusty
conditions will gradually subside during this time frame.
Aviation...issued 131 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2015
VFR sky conditions are forecasted for the duration of the taf
period. Northeasterly winds of 15 to 20 knots have developed as
forecasted and will persist throughout the remainder of the
afternoon hours. No rain is expected between 12-18z Sunday with
model data trending slower with the onset of precipitation.
//Dtw threshold probabilities...
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for lhz421-422-
Lake St Clair...none.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...none.
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.Weather.Gov/Detroit (all lower case).