Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan 352 am EDT sun may 26 2013 Short term...today through tonight Plus 1026 mb surface ridging is in place this morning across Lake Superior down into the Lake Huron and Michigan aggregate. The largest radiational cooling response has taken place in The Thumb and glacial ridge with temperatures down into the lower 30s. The main anticyclone center is shown to detach from the polar region today taking aim for the state...which supports little to no temperature advection. Nevertheless...still expecting temperatures to increase some 3-4 degrees with a head start off of warmer mins from this morning. Highs today should approach 70 degrees across the south with low 60s in The Thumb/50s along the immediate Lake Huron shoreline. The center of a preceding anticyclonic circulation is forecasted to be directly overhead of the County Warning Area between 00-03z this evening. Very interested to see how this impacts the lake breeze release late this afternoon. The main anticyclone center will dive into the Saginaw Bay vicinity overnight. This should keep The Thumb in a cold anticyclonic influence...suggesting another nights Worth of cold mins and possible frost headlines. The cool temperatures-30s should extend down the glacial ridge as well. && Long term...Monday through Saturday A potent middle level wave dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will help deepen the long wave trough over the western US early in the week... while middle level short wave impulses are forecast to eject out of The Rockies and into the upper Midwest. A middle level ridge axis will traverse lower Michigan Monday/Monday night as the deep upper low now over northern New England lifts across eastern Canada. Lake aggregate surface high pressure associated with a departing low level anticyclone will maintain very dry air across Southeast Michigan on Memorial Day...supporting the current dry forecast. A strong low level warm air advection regime across the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes region will however lead to a dramatic increase in high clouds through the day. Model soundings suggest the low level warm air advection across Southeast Michigan will be strong enough to offset the increase in high clouds...supporting maximum temperatures near 70. The 00z model suite continue to suggest a high probability that a convective complex will develop over the upper MS valley/western Great Lakes Monday night on the nose of the low level jet. A fairly agressive push of higher middle level Theta-E air is also forecast to advect across lower Michigan. The degree of middle level moisture advection under the broad pattern of warm air advection/isentropic ascent may be enough to overcome the residual dry layer in the low levels to support a chance of some light rain Monday night. The 00z model suite remain steadfast in suggesting the remnants of an upstream mesoscale convective system rolling across southern Michigan on Tuesday...supporting the current chance probability of precipitation. There remains concern that the model solutions are not handling the potential for propagation to the S-southeast and thus may be too far north with any remnant mesoscale convective vortex. Persistent low level SW flow will eventually advect a warmer and much more humid airmass into Southeast Michigan either Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night...depending heavily on how remnant mesoscale convective system activity alters the low level inflow. Additional middle level short wave impulses lifting out of the central US and increasing instability over the Great Lakes will sustain the chance of thunderstorm complexes over southern Michigan into Wednesday. The long wave trough over the western US is forecast to evolve into a broad upper low centered over the northern rockies/northern High Plains by late in the week per the 00z medium range suite. This will occur as additional energy ejects out of the Gulf of Alaska and a seasonally strong upper jet dives into the West Coast. In response...the subtropical ridge will build across the eastern US toward the end of the week. The GFS has trended toward the European model (ecmwf) solution which is more amplified and farther north with the middle level ridge and suggests Southeast Michigan may become strongly capped to convection...while southwesterly flow remains persistent in the low levels. This will support rather warm and humid conditions /highs well in the 80s/ with low chances of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS solutions lift the remnant upper low into the upper MS valley by next weekend. Corresponding middle level height falls across the Great Lakes and potential for some semblance of a surface front to approach from the west will support a chance of thunderstorms next Saturday. && Marine... A stable anticyclone will expand across the Great Lakes today and tonight. Quiet marine conditions with regards to wind and waves will continue through Monday. Wave heights will fail to reach the 2 foot mark in all areas. && Aviation...issued 106 am EDT sun may 26 2013 //discussion... High pressure will maintain VFR conditions today through Sunday night while drifting slowly eastward. This will be responsible for a calm wind becoming light northerly during the morning before some lake breeze influence develops late in the day. The ridge will also hold off all but patches of high clouds associated with the frontal system over the Midwest through Sunday night. //Dtw threshold threats... * none. && DTX watches/warnings/advisories... Michigan...frost advisory...miz049-miz054-miz055-miz062-miz063...until 7 am Sunday. Lake Huron...none. Lake St Clair...none. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...none. && $$ Short term...cumulonimbus long term....SC marine.......cb aviation.....Bt You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.Weather.Gov/Detroit (all lower case).