Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan
352 am EDT sun may 26 2013
Short term...today through tonight
Plus 1026 mb surface ridging is in place this morning across Lake
Superior down into the Lake Huron and Michigan aggregate. The
largest radiational cooling response has taken place in The Thumb
and glacial ridge with temperatures down into the lower 30s. The
main anticyclone center is shown to detach from the polar region
today taking aim for the state...which supports little to no
temperature advection. Nevertheless...still expecting temperatures
to increase some 3-4 degrees with a head start off of warmer mins
from this morning. Highs today should approach 70 degrees across the
south with low 60s in The Thumb/50s along the immediate Lake Huron
shoreline.
The center of a preceding anticyclonic circulation is forecasted to
be directly overhead of the County Warning Area between 00-03z this evening. Very
interested to see how this impacts the lake breeze release late this
afternoon. The main anticyclone center will dive into the Saginaw
Bay vicinity overnight. This should keep The Thumb in a cold
anticyclonic influence...suggesting another nights Worth of cold
mins and possible frost headlines. The cool temperatures-30s should
extend down the glacial ridge as well.
&&
Long term...Monday through Saturday
A potent middle level wave dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will help
deepen the long wave trough over the western US early in the week...
while middle level short wave impulses are forecast to eject out of The
Rockies and into the upper Midwest. A middle level ridge axis will
traverse lower Michigan Monday/Monday night as the deep upper low now over northern
New England lifts across eastern Canada. Lake aggregate surface high
pressure associated with a departing low level anticyclone will
maintain very dry air across Southeast Michigan on Memorial Day...supporting the
current dry forecast. A strong low level warm air advection regime
across the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes region will however lead to
a dramatic increase in high clouds through the day. Model soundings
suggest the low level warm air advection across Southeast Michigan will be strong
enough to offset the increase in high clouds...supporting maximum temperatures
near 70.
The 00z model suite continue to suggest a high probability that a
convective complex will develop over the upper MS valley/western Great
Lakes Monday night on the nose of the low level jet. A fairly agressive
push of higher middle level Theta-E air is also forecast to advect
across lower Michigan. The degree of middle level moisture advection under
the broad pattern of warm air advection/isentropic ascent may be
enough to overcome the residual dry layer in the low levels to
support a chance of some light rain Monday night. The 00z model suite
remain steadfast in suggesting the remnants of an upstream mesoscale convective system
rolling across southern Michigan on Tuesday...supporting the current chance
probability of precipitation. There remains concern that the model solutions are not
handling the potential for propagation to the S-southeast and thus may be
too far north with any remnant mesoscale convective vortex. Persistent low level SW flow
will eventually advect a warmer and much more humid airmass into Southeast
Michigan either Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night...depending heavily on how
remnant mesoscale convective system activity alters the low level inflow. Additional middle
level short wave impulses lifting out of the central US and
increasing instability over the Great Lakes will sustain the chance
of thunderstorm complexes over southern Michigan into Wednesday.
The long wave trough over the western US is forecast to evolve into a
broad upper low centered over the northern rockies/northern High Plains by
late in the week per the 00z medium range suite. This will occur as
additional energy ejects out of the Gulf of Alaska and a seasonally
strong upper jet dives into the West Coast. In response...the
subtropical ridge will build across the eastern US toward the end of the
week. The GFS has trended toward the European model (ecmwf) solution which is more
amplified and farther north with the middle level ridge and suggests Southeast
Michigan may become strongly capped to convection...while southwesterly flow
remains persistent in the low levels. This will support rather warm
and humid conditions /highs well in the 80s/ with low chances of
thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS solutions lift the
remnant upper low into the upper MS valley by next weekend.
Corresponding middle level height falls across the Great Lakes and
potential for some semblance of a surface front to approach from the
west will support a chance of thunderstorms next Saturday.
&&
Marine...
A stable anticyclone will expand across the Great Lakes today and
tonight. Quiet marine conditions with regards to wind and waves will
continue through Monday. Wave heights will fail to reach the 2 foot
mark in all areas.
&&
Aviation...issued 106 am EDT sun may 26 2013
//discussion...
High pressure will maintain VFR conditions today through Sunday
night while drifting slowly eastward. This will be responsible for a
calm wind becoming light northerly during the morning before some
lake breeze influence develops late in the day. The ridge will also
hold off all but patches of high clouds associated with the frontal
system over the Midwest through Sunday night.
//Dtw threshold threats...
* none.
&&
DTX watches/warnings/advisories...
Michigan...frost advisory...miz049-miz054-miz055-miz062-miz063...until 7 am
Sunday.
Lake Huron...none.
Lake St Clair...none.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...none.
&&
$$
Short term...cumulonimbus
long term....SC
marine.......cb
aviation.....Bt
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at www.Weather.Gov/Detroit (all lower case).
