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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND 
VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON. E-SE WINDS OFF THE 
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ELEVATED THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND METRO
DETROIT. SO WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY IN FOG WILL BE ADDED TO YIP. THE MORE URBAN
ENVIRONMENT AROUND DTW AND DET WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW THE TEMP TO
COOL AS MUCH. SO FOG WILL NOT BE ADDED TO THESE SITES.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO WORK THROUGH 
FAR EASTERN MICHIGAN AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. 
COLDER POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH 
DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED STEEP FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 
DEVELOP IN THE LOWER-LEVELS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN PER LATEST 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE 
DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE AGGREGATE WORKED 
ACROSS. THERE WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR 
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN 
AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME CENTERED 
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. 
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DROP MIN TEMPS TO 
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE 
THUMB TO NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN DETROIT AREAS.

LONG TERM...

THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IDEAL AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH 
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WARM AIR WASHING IN ALOFT WILL 
PRESERVE A HIGH AMOUNT OF STABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN 
RIDGE BUBBLE PER 1000-850 LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERLAP ALL OF 
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH 15-18Z...EASING ITS GRIP ONLY SLIGHTLY 
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VERY ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE PROGGED TO LOWER 
DOWN TO AROUND 850MB WILL SQUASH BOUNDARY LAYER GROWTH AND MAKE IT 
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE AMOUNT OF CUMULUS 
WITNESSED TODAY. FAVOR WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN 
MANY LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECASTED TO PUSH STRAIGHT OVER LAKE 
SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE REMNANT RIDGING 
EASTWARD. OVERALL...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SETUP TO ALLOW VERY 
STRONG WARM AIR AND HIGHER Theta-e ADVECTION FOR THE DAY ON 
SATURDAY. THE QUESTION IS...HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE THE 
LOW LEVELS. RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PAINTING SOME LIGHT 
QPF...FALLING OUT OF A SATURATED/STEEPER LAPSE RATE LAYER THAT IS 
ABOVE 10 KFT. THE FEELING IS...THAT SOME REMNANT CLOUD/STRATIFORM 
WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. 
HOWEVER...SUSPECT THE WEAKENING AND GLACIATING ACTIVITY TO REMAIN 
VIRGA RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING. PULLED BACK ON 
POPS BEFORE 18Z. MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME LOOSELY FORMED 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND 
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHAT IS PROBABLY A BETTER FEATURE TO KEY IN ON 
IS THE RELEASE OF A NOCTURNAL JET CYCLE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SOMETIME 
VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF 
THE JET PUSH LOOKS GOOD FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT TO INVOKE SOME 
LARGER SCALE WAVE IMPULSE. WENT FAIRLY LIGHT AGAIN WITH POPS IN THE 
MID TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...WILL GIVE IT SOME TIME BEFORE 
INCREASING POPS. ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 
LOW 80S ON SATURDAY DESPITE THE CLOUD THAT SHOULD BE AROUND EARLY IN 
THE DAY.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. 
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FRONTS. 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AVERAGING
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCAL EFFECTS DUE TO LIGHT SHOWERS IN AND NEAR LAKE 
ST CLAIR THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND 
TOMORROW WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY 
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE 
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OTHERWISE WINDS LOOK TO BE STAYING LIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....CB/DE
MARINE.......CB


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