Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan
320 am EDT sun Mar 16 2014
Short term...today and tonight
Arctic high pressure will continue to build into lower Michigan
through tonight. The cold air is deep...as 850 mb temperatures look to be
solidly in the negative middle teens (00z apx sounding showed -18 c at
850 mb). As tough as it is to believe...even with a good deal of middle
March insolation...temperatures are expected to remain in the low
to middle 20s for highs...based on forecasted 925 mb temperatures of -11 to
-13 c...per 00z Euro. The Flint record low maximum for today is 27
degrees (1950)...so there is a good shot at that record.
Mbs record is 24 (1939)...while Detroit is the coldest 19 (1900).
Good radiating night tonight is expected...sending mins back into
the single numbers across most areas...with normally colder spots
along/north of I-69 dipping below zero with the center of the high
in place. Saginaw stands the best chance of reaching the record low
of 1 set in 1916...otherwise Flint and Detroit record lows for March
17 are below zero.
Long term...Monday through Saturday
After another cold day Monday with highs struggling to reach 30
degrees...temperatures will moderate for the balance of the week as
Arctic high pressure shifts east of the region. While the upcoming
pattern will not be a sustained warmup...the week will yield a
number of days in which highs climb to or above 40 degrees. This is
pretty close to average for the third week of March.
One noteworthy storm system is still expected to develop over the
plains and lift up through the upper Midwest/Great Lakes Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Model consensus takes the center of this low
pressure system just to the northwest of the region...which will
allow a push of mild air into the area late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This will result in most of the precipitation associated
with this system falling as rain. Will add a mention of freezing
rain over the far northern County Warning Area Tuesday night as temperatures near
30f are slow to dislodge...but overall...expect temperatures to
creep up through the 30s Tuesday night and reach the Lower/Middle 40s
Additional shortwave energy will funnel into area within the pseudo
zonal upper level flow in place over the northern Continental U.S. On the far
southern fringe of larger scale noam upper level trough centered
over Canada. Model differences with regards to this system have
increased in the past 24 hours...so confidence remains rather low on
how the week wraps up. Forecast temperature profiles amongst the
model runs would suggest a mix bag of precipitation again Friday
into early Saturday. Unfortunately...the magnitude and location of
any such system remains difficult to predict.
High pressure will bring relatively light winds to the area today to
Lake Huron. However...the pressure gradient between this high and
low pressure crossing well south of the area will bring increased
east to northeast flow to Western Lake Erie with gusts of 20 knots
or more at times. This high will expand through the area tonight and
then build east Monday into Monday night.
Relatively quiet conditions will persist early in the week as south
to southeast flow slowly increases on the west side of this high
pressure system. Winds then become rather gusty by midweek as low
pressure tracks through the central Great Lakes...crossing Northern
Lake Huron late Wednesday. Gusty south/southwest winds will veer to
the west and northwest with this passage of this system.
Aviation...issued 1157 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2014
A thicker canopy of middle level cloud will continue across Southeast Michigan
early this morning. A dry low level northerly flow will limit the
prospects for a lower ceiling to develop during this time...ceilings
predominately holding above 7000 feet. High pressure takes a firm
hold on Sunday. The strong presence of dry air will limit the
potential for a brief late day diurnal cumulus field. Northeast winds in
the 10 knot range through the day.
//Dtw threshold threats...
Lake St Clair...none.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...none.
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.Weather.Gov/Detroit (all lower case).