Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Des Moines Iowa
341 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Short term /tonight/...
issued at 340 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Strong south winds will persist into the evening given a tight
pressure gradient ahead of the low approaching from the northwest.
Relative humidity has not quite gotten down to 25 percent...but is
close enough that the red flag warning will remain in place until 6
PM along with the Wind Advisory. As the surface low and attendant
cold front sweep across the area overnight we will see a sharp wind
shift with much cooler temperatures moving into the area. Earlier
this afternoon in South Dakota Yankton...just ahead of the
front...was 61 degrees while Mitchell was at 35 degrees only about 50
miles to the northwest. Meanwhile radar imagery continues to return
widespread light intensity echoes all across north and northwest
Iowa and Minnesota...but forecast soundings and ceilometers indicate
a lot of low level dry air/high cloud bases and most observation are not
registering any precipitation south of the Iowa/Minnesota border. Have maintained
modest chance probability of precipitation across our far north this evening but any amounts
will be light and of no impact.

Long term /Thursday through Wednesday/...
issued at 339 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

No significant weather is anticipated through the period...but a
progressive and somewhat active pattern nonetheless. Nothing of note
at onset with Iowa behind effects of current system with approach of
surface high pressure. First precipitation window is introduced by late
Thursday night with increased thermodynamic forcing. Anything with this
would be quite light with weak lift and dry low levels. Soundings
suggest warm layer would be just adequate enough to flip p-type to
liquid so resultant precipitation would likely be either sprinkles or
freezing sprinkles. Removed probability of precipitation by Friday afternoon with typical
decreasing diurnal warm advection cycle which leads into Sat.

Weak system finally deepens forcing and moisture sufficiently for
more robust and widespread probability of precipitation. Instability also increases with
MUCAPES at least several hundred into the state. Severe potential
rather low however with shear/kinematics weak. Big question with
this system will likely be how long to hold onto probability of precipitation. GFS places
more emphasis on the northern stream pushing things out quicker while the
European model (ecmwf) with its Central Plains focus is slower. A consensus would
suggest best potential Sat night into sun but lingering chance probability of precipitation
into Sun night and potentially Monday per the European model (ecmwf).

Drying is then expected into early next week with upper level ridge
building into the MO valley. Temperatures will be mild and just
above normal with increasing warm/Theta-E advection returning probability of precipitation
Tuesday night into Wednesday.


issued at 1234 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Strong south-southwest winds will persist through this afternoon...resulting in
Crosswinds of 20 to 25 knots or greater at times on east-west runways.
Meanwhile a cold front will approach from the northwest...moving across
the area this evening and early tonight with winds gradually
diminishing then swinging around to northwest. Low clouds will accompany
the front...with MVFR ceilings and brief -ra possible especially at
kfod/kmcw/Kalo. After about 14z Thursday expect clearing skies and VFR


Dmx watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for Adair-Adams-

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Adair-Adams-
Appanoose-Audubon-Black Hawk-Boone-Carroll-Cass-Clarke-Crawford-



Short term...Lee
long term...small