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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Des Moines Iowa
647 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Synopsis...
issued at 320 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Low pressure over southeastern Nebraska will drift east as frontal
boundary extending east form the low begins to sink south tonight.
Secondary low will move up the front from the southwest on
Saturday. High pressure will build into the region and dominate
the weather into next week.

&&

Short term /tonight/...
issued at 320 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Weak low pressure system in southern NE with weak boundary into
southern Iowa did not advance as far north today as
anticipated...with clouds from overnight convection also lingering
across the area. This helped to keep temperatures much cooler than
anticipated across central and southern County Warning Area. Therefore...will drop
heat advisory for remaining portion...locations in the old advisory
area may see heat index values near 100 through the remainder of the
afternoon...below criteria. In addition...have dropped overnight low
temperatures a few degrees as well.

Low will push eastward overnight...though will remain capped across
the County Warning Area and have kept dry forecast. Secondary low begins to
influence area near 12z...though models keep system further
west...and have cut probability of precipitation for end of period.

Long term /Saturday through Friday/...
issued at 320 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Frontal boundary will remain south of Iowa through Saturday. Low
pressure will move northeastward along the boundary on Saturday with low
chances for thunderstorms across the south. Given the little northward
progress of the warm front...do not see a strong chance of
vigorous thunderstorm development as far north Iowa Iowa will keep in
chances across the south...leaning toward the further south
solutions of the of NAM.

High pressure will exert its strength into the central U.S. Sat
night into next week. This will keep temperatures at least 5 to 10
degrees below normal for a good part of the week. There will be
little chance for any significant rainfall.

&&

Aviation...26/00z
issued at 0647 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Areas of low clouds may break up through middle evening across the SW
but should remain over NE taf locations. Fog is probable overnight
due to lighter winds and previous rainfall so MVFR ceilings/visibilities were
adjusted but left from the previous taf forecast. At
present...thinking is that boundary will stay south of Iowa so storm
chances appear low or at least questionable enough to leave out of
tafs at this point. Should the front shift further north or the
then thunder may need to be added in later forecasts but it is too
far out of the forecast cycle and too many variables in play to
place in the forecast at this point.

&&

Dmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Synopsis...MS Jul 14
short term...awb
long term...MS Jul 14
aviation...fab

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