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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Des Moines Iowa
409 am CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014

Short term /today/...
issued at 405 am CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014

As anticipated elevated thunderstorms have formed in a broken band
across southern/southwestern Iowa early this morning...along the
nose of the veering low level jet and within a region of Theta-E
advection aloft. A few storms will likely produce some hail but no
organized severe weather is expected. This activity will persist for
the next several hours as it slowly drifts northeast toward central
Iowa...then gradually fade later this morning with mostly dry
conditions anticipated by the afternoon. effective
warm front in the form of a surge of warmer and more moist air will
move in from the southwest today...resulting in sultry conditions
across much of our area by later today. Heat index values will top
out near 100 degrees from around the I-80 corridor southward thus no
advisory is warranted at this time.

Long term /tonight through Tuesday/...
issued at 405 am CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014

Precipitation trends will be the primary forecast concern right on into
next week...but unfortunately details will be hard to come by.
General pattern changes little with persistent western Continental U.S. Trough/eastern
ridge scenario as pna index continues to lower. This leaves Iowa in
prolonged SW flow aloft with surface features reaching the state
later this week and moving little into next week. Convection for
the next few days will mainly be nocturnal with little convergence
or larger scale forcing. Warm/Theta-E advection surge will push
through tonight with weaker thermodynamic forcing Thursday night. With
baroclinic zone advancing NE...this will leave Iowa in a very warm and
humid airmass with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Peak heat
indices will be pushing advisory criteria...just over 100f...but not
quite there so will continue mention in the severe weather potential statement.

By the weekend and early next week surface boundary should advance
more south and east increasing the potential for peak
heating/surface based convection. Surface features should linger
through the end of the valid period with a prolonged mention of
probability of precipitation. Better synoptic forcing with western trough finally advances far
enough east to increase probability of precipitation and precipitation coverage by Tuesday...but best
sensible weather reflection seems just beyond the current valid
period Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The airmass will be favorable for locally heavy rains through the
entire period with quite favorable elevated k indices...warm cloud
depths and precipitable waters . Have started with heavy rain mention north
tonight...but additional wording may need to be added with later
packages. NE half of the forecast area remains quite no
headlines for now until confidence of heavy rain locations and
more favorable antecedent moisture conditions become better
phased. Severe potential will remain elevated as well due to the
degree of instability and at least marginal effect shear...but
there does not appear to be any particular period to focus on
beside marginal increase from the weekend on due to boundary
interactions. Will keep broad mention of both threats going in
the severe weather potential statement.


issued at 1134 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2014

Boundary will lift across Iowa through Wednesday...this will bring
chances for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain to sites...primarily southern sites
throughout the period. Best chances will come before 12z...before
decreasing. Have included vc mention at kfod/kdsm/kotm. Northern
sites will likely see br/fog near 12z given ample low level
moisture. MVFR...IFR or lower ceilings and visibilities will be
possible at times at sites through 12z before improving quickly
after 12z. Winds will become southerly and conditions will remain
VFR through remainder of period.


Dmx watches/warnings/advisories...none.



Short term...Lee
long term...small

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