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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
656 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 313 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

At 310 PM...the Northland had gusty northwest winds due to the earlier
passage of a strong cold front. The winds were gusting to 25 to 35
miles per hour over most of the region...and in some areas nearly 40 miles per hour. The
eastern forecast area had cloudy skies...but there was clearing
over the western areas. Temperatures ranged from the lower 30s
over the far east to the middle to upper 40s over the west.

The gusty winds and clearing trend will continue through this
evening. High pressure will begin to move into the region from
the west tonight...leading to mostly clear skies and light winds
overnight. Overnight lows should be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

A low pressure trough will move into the northern plains and
Minnesota/Wisconsin region Monday. While the morning will likely
begin rather sunny...there will be increasing cloud cover and
chances of light rain during the late morning and afternoon. The
models suggest this band could be focused along a low/middle level
frontogenetical band that will move across the Northland with the
trough boundary. High temperatures will be cooler in the upper
30s and lower 40s over the NE forecast area due to the cloud
cover and rain...but could reach the upper 50s in the SW where
there will be more sun.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 313 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

An elongated area of vorticity will move over the region Monday
night. This will bring an opportunity for some mixed
precipitation. Snow is forecast for The Arrowhead where up to one
inch is possible. One more piece of vorticity clips The Arrowhead
Tuesday morning...but a warming low level will lead to a
rain/snow mix. By Tuesday afternoon...the vorticity maximum moves off and
high pressure builds over the area and lingers through Tuesday
night. On Wednesday...warm air advection is underway ahead of a surface low moving
through south central Canada. Timing differences emerge amongst
the models as well as quantitative precipitation forecast coverage. Instability increases through
the day ahead of a cold front near the Minnesota/Dakotas border by late
morning. Some showers may break out along the international
border and on the tip of low level jet moving through southern Minnesota. Models
have been consistent with the development of thunderstorms in the
afternoon as the cold front moves into the area. Have added an
isolated mention of thunder ahead of the front where ingredients for
storms are organizing. The front moves into northwest WI Wednesday
evening and have added isolated thunder to northwest WI. The instability
moves east of the area late Wednesday night and have no mention of
thunder after 06z...but still expect some showers. On
Thursday...the surface low moves into northwest Ontario with a surge of cold
air behind it. Lowest levels should remain warm enough for rain.
Thursday night any lingering precipitation will be snow as deeper cold air
arrives with 850 mb temperatures dropping to -11c over much of the area.
Model differences become pronounced as a an anticipated series of
upper level short waves are prognosticated to affect the area. Air will
be cold enough for any precipitation to be all snow.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 656 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Strong northwest winds in the wake of a cold front will subside
this evening and VFR conditions are expected. There will still be
some VFR ceilings this evening...but most areas will gradually
become scattered.

Another area of low pressure will move into the region on Monday
and an area of fgen forcing will move southwest to northeast
across the Northland. Low level temperatures support mainly rain
as this precipitation moves through. The exception will be over The
Arrowhead which may be cold enough for mainly snow at the end of
the period.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 30 49 32 51 / 0 50 50 10
inl 27 48 28 49 / 0 60 50 10
brd 31 59 35 58 / 0 20 10 0
hyr 28 53 29 54 / 0 30 30 0
asx 30 51 28 47 / 10 60 40 10


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...
Ls...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for lsz121-



Short term...grochocinski
long term...gsf

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