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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
724 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 631 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Updated sky cover this evening as latest satellite imagery shows
a deck of middle level ceilings associated with a short
wave/secondary cold front residing over north central Minnesota. A
current timing on the back edge of the cloud cover brings the
clearing line through Brainerd and Hibbing around
midnight...reaching Duluth and Hayward during the early morning

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 314 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

The middle of the week starts out rather quiet with high pressure
sliding south of the County Warning Area Tuesday night. GFS/ECMWF/Gem reg/NAM are
all in agreement that the high pressure center will drift eastward
into Wisconsin on Wednesday as a cold front... extending from the
Hudson Bay to Montana...moves into the far northwest Minnesota and stalls
Wednesday evening. Models are hinting that the front will erode and
lift northward early Thursday... the challenge will be whether we
see any showers out of it. NAM/European model (ecmwf) have backed off on showers and
mostly kept probability of precipitation west of the County Warning Area... so adjusted probability of precipitation downward
accordingly across inl southward to brd. It will not be out of the
question to get a stray shower or two out of the system across north
central Minnesota... so forecast may need to be adjusted accordingly

The forecast remains on track for warm temperatures to continue all
week... with highs in the Northland in the middle 70s on Wednesday...
climbing to the upper 70s and low 80s this weekend. Ended up
tweaking both maximum and min temperatures up a bit with guidance from the

The potential remains this coming weekend for another round of
strong to severe storms tracking across the Northland. European model (ecmwf)/GFS
both move a Colorado low northward to the eastern Dakotas... raising
a warm front northward across Minnesota/WI Sat night/Sun morning. GFS...
while the most aggressive of the models... peaks MUCAPE in the 2000-
4000 j/kg range... so the extended period bares watching.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 631 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Middle level ceilings above 4 kft will prevail through
midnight...with mostly clear skies across the forecast areas by
day break. VFR conditions will persist through Tuesday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 50 70 52 74 / 0 0 0 0
inl 45 71 47 75 / 0 0 0 10
brd 49 71 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
hyr 50 70 47 74 / 10 0 0 0
asx 51 68 49 74 / 0 0 0 0


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...graning
long term...mclovin

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