Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
1139 PM CST Thursday Jan 29 2015
issued at 818 PM CST Thursday Jan 29 2015
Updated to continue snow showers in The Arrowhead and northern WI this
Still plenty of lift with strong 500 mb trough and vorticity
maximum to provide continued snow showers over the Minnesota arrowhead and northern
WI this evening. Two Harbors has been down to 2 miles in occasional snow
showers. Had report of some snow showers in the Gile WI area.
Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 350 PM CST Thursday Jan 29 2015
At 350 PM...skies were clearing nicely across the Northland.
Temperatures had generally fallen through the day for much of the
County Warning Area...with temperatures ranging from near 10 above at kinl to the middle
20s in northwestern Wisconsin. The most persistent cloud cover was
in northwest WI...with some lingering clouds in the interior portions of
The Arrowhead and ec Minnesota. Winds were gusting into the 20s in
spots...but the general trend has been to decrease through the day.
For tonight...the clouds will continue to decrease across the County Warning Area.
There were some lingering flurries associated with the remaining
cloud cover...and some scattered snow showers are possible across
the South Shore. Temperatures will drop well below zero for most
of the region...and have brought temperatures down from previous forecast
based on the amount of clearing and the expected decreasing wind.
Temperatures should drop well into the teens below zero in the north and
mainly single digits below zero in the south. Winds will drop and
it looks like wind chill values will remain just outside of Wind
Chill Advisory criteria but it will be close in a few northern
On Friday...we should see some sunshine to start the day...but
clouds will increase quickly as return flow develops ahead of a
system moving in from the northwest. Strong warm air advection will bring temperatures
back into the teens in the northeast and 20s for much of the
remainder of the County Warning Area.
Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 350 PM CST Thursday Jan 29 2015
A trough of low pressure will move through the Canadian prairies and
into the shield Friday night through Saturday. A weak clipper
will develop in response and advance across the Borderland and Lake
Superior. A quick 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected Friday night
through early Saturday morning in The Arrowhead and along the
international border. Winds veer northerly in the wake of the low on
Saturday night and Sunday and another inch or two of lake effect snow
is possible over portions of Ashland and Iron counties through
A broad area of Arctic high pressure will build across the Canadian
prairies and northern Minnesota behind the departing clipper
Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures are not expected to warm
much during the day Saturday resulting in afternoon highs only a few
degrees above the morning mins. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 miles per hour are
forecast for Saturday night...and in combination with the colder
air...will result in dangerous wind chills in the 25 to 35 below
zero range. Saturday night low temperatures will range from 5 to 25
below zero. Temperatures will remain cold on Sunday and Sunday night
as the high becomes better established over the upper Midwest. High
temperatures will range from 5 below zero north...to the upper
single digits southeast. Dangerous wind chills of 25 to 35 below
zero are possible again Sunday night and overnight lows will once
again range from 5 to 25 below zero.
Another upper-air disturbance will move into the region on
Monday...with a weak surface low developing in the western High
Plains. Winds will turn southwesterly on Monday as the low begins
to develop resulting in slightly warmer temperatures. The low itself
is expected to move into the western Great Lakes on
Tuesday...bringing a slight chance of light snow to the southern
sections of the forecast area.
Another Arctic ridge will build behind tuesdays system resulting in
a trend toward colder temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1136 PM CST Thursday Jan 29 2015
VFR conditions will be commonn through about 18z...but there will
be an occasional ceiling below bkn030 at kdlh and khyr early in the period.
More clouds and snow showers with MVFR ceilings will overspread the
forecast area this after 18z and continue this evening.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh -5 16 10 14 / 10 20 20 10
inl -14 16 -1 3 / 0 70 50 10
brd 1 21 14 17 / 0 10 10 0
hyr -8 17 9 19 / 20 10 10 10
asx 0 16 12 18 / 30 20 30 30