Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
534 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016
Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 338 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016
At 330 am...skies continued to clear across the Northland.
Temperatures ranged from the single digits below zero in the northwest
portion of the County Warning Area to the teens above zero in portions of ec Minnesota
and northwest WI. There have been a few flurries this morning in the
The focus for today through Saturday will be clearing skies and
falling temperatures. The falling temperatures will lead to low wind
chill values throughout the day...and especially tonight and
Saturday morning. Wind chill values look to generally remain in
the advisory criteria for the northern portion of the County Warning Area
throughout the day and into Saturday morning...and criteria should
be reached across the south tonight and Saturday morning. We will
need to watch for wind chill warning criteria being met across the
north tonight and early Saturday as well.
Skies should generally clear across the Northland...leaving a
partly to mostly sunny sky for the region. The exception will be
along the South Shore of Lake Superior...which will See Lake
effect snow develop today and tonight. Contemplated an
advisory...but will have amounts just below advisory criteria for
now. Will need to watch this area closely...but lower inversion
heights do not lend enough confidence to an advisory at this time.
Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 338 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016
An area of high pressure will continue to move off to the east
Saturday night as a shortwave dives southeast through the Dakotas.
A period of clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to
drop quickly Saturday evening...especially over eastern areas where
we have lows well below zero.
The shortwave will bring snow to the Northland late Saturday night
into Sunday night. We brought in probability of precipitation earlier and increased them
quite a bit...especially across our southern area Saturday night
into Sunday. The best forcing will be south of the Northland...but
there should be a period of light snow across much of the area as
this wave moves through. The snow will diminish in coverage Sunday
night from west to east. We expect accumulations from 1 to 4
inches...with southern areas most likely to see the higher amounts.
There also could be some higher amounts along the North Shore of
Lake Superior as winds turn southerly causing some lake effect snow
showers there late Saturday night into Sunday evening.
Light snow may linger into Monday...but additional accumulation will
be quite light.
High pressure will build into the region Tuesday with colder air
moving in on northerly winds. This will lead to the potential for
lake effect snow along the South Shore Monday night into Tuesday
Warmer air will move back into the region late in the period with
some possible snow or a wintry mix with the warm air advection.
High temperatures will start out in the teens on Sunday...warming
into the upper twenties to around thirty Monday. Highs will then
drop back into the teens to lower twenties by Wednesday before
rising well above average late in the week.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 529 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016
High pressure was nosing south into the region early this morning
with cold...dry northerly winds occurring. The dry air has caused
much of the clouds to diminish overnight. However...as is often
the case with very cold Arctic air...patches of MVFR ceilings
remain and that will likely continue through at least the morning.
Some stratocu may develop as well this afternoon. MVFR ceilings
and snow showers will be possible along portions of the South
Shore today into tonight due to cold northerly winds over the
warmer waters of Lake Superior.
Gusty northerly winds will continue today...then diminish tonight.
VFR conditions are expected for most areas tonight.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 0 -21 3 -9 / 0 0 0 20
inl -6 -29 3 -4 / 0 0 0 30
brd 3 -22 7 0 / 0 0 10 90
hyr 4 -22 8 -7 / 0 0 0 20
asx 4 -10 6 -8 / 20 20 20 10
WI...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 am CST Saturday
Minnesota...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 am CST Saturday for mnz010>012-
Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 am CST Saturday