Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
1231 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015
Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 333 am CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015
At 330 am...it was very quiet across the Northland. Skies ranged
from mostly cloudy in The Arrowhead and far eastern areas of northwest
WI...to mostly clear skies elsewhere. Patchy fog had developed
across the area...although most of the fog was generally light.
Temperatures were in the 50s for most locations.
The main focus for today will be cloud trends and temperatures. We
could see a few lingering showers in northwest Wisconsin especially...but
overall it looks to be a dry day. Could see some patches of clouds
across eastern areas...but overall the trend will be for increasing
sunshine across the area. High pressure will continue to build in
throughout the day. High temperatures should generally be in the 70s.
High pressure will continue to build into the Lake Superior region
tonight. The mostly clear skies and light winds should result in
cool overnight low temperatures...with most locations in the 40s.
The 06z NAM is trying to indicate some quantitative precipitation forecast in the Brainerd lakes
region tonight...but most of the models maintain dry weather
across the County Warning Area overnight.
Precipitation should generally remain outside of the County Warning Area
boundaries again on Wednesday...and will maintain a dry forecast
across the area. Would not be surprised to see a stray shower
either across the international border or in the Brainerd lakes
region...but do not feel there is enough of a chance to include
precipitation at this time. Highs will again be in the 70s.
Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 333 am CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015
The period will begin with cool northwest flow aloft and surface high
pressure over the western Great Lakes region. This should promote
relatively clear skies and light winds Wednesday and early Thursday.
There is a very low chance of showers and storms over far northern
Minnesota with a shortwave that may drop out of Canada...but held
off on adding it into the forecast since confidence is low.
Thursday looks relatively sunny and dry...but there is a low chance
of afternoon and early evening showers and thunder over far northern
Minnesota. The rest of the forecast area should be more under the
influence of the high pressure.
Friday and Saturday will be more humid. Westerly flow will develop
Friday and southerly flow Saturday. There are low chances of showers
and storms...primarily during the afternoon and early evening due to
the daytime heating.
Sunday and Sunday night will be have the best chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast period. The models are in good
agreement that a prominent cold front will move through the region
from west to east. The models are a bit off on timing...with the
European model (ecmwf) being about 6 to 12 hours faster than the GFS.
Cooler and drier air will begin to move into the Northland Monday.
There could be showers and storms in the afternoon with the daytime
heating in the cool northwest flow aloft.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1231 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015
VFR conditions will persist through the taf period at all sites
except for some early afternoon stratus at dlh and hyr. At dlh
stratus should only persist for another hour or two as visible
satellite and webcam imagery indicate the edge of the clearing is
very close...with skies already clearing up at Duluth Sky Harbor.
At hyr less confident in the exact time of clearing...but surface
heating should aid improvement by middle- afternoon. Beyond this
skies will be mostly sunny with just some high clouds moving in
from the west tonight into early tomorrow. At brd could see middle-
level /4 to 5kft/ ceilings early tomorrow...but conditions should
remain VFR. Winds light through the period...becoming near-calm
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 67 49 73 51 / 10 0 10 0
inl 73 47 78 53 / 0 10 10 10
brd 77 52 75 55 / 10 10 10 0
hyr 70 43 74 47 / 10 0 0 0
asx 63 44 71 47 / 10 0 0 10
WI...beach hazards statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for wiz001.
Minnesota...beach hazards statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for mnz037.