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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
630 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

issued at 630 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

Updated for the new 12z aviation discussion below.


Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 356 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

Another warm day can be expected across the Northland today. A
surface low is over western South Dakota....with a warm front draped
from it up across southeast North Dakota...across central Minnesota
and into northern Wisconsin. This surface low will lift northeast
across the Dakotas today and up into western Ontario by tonight.
This will bring an area of showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area beginning this morning...slowly spreading east across
northern Minnesota this afternoon and evening...continuing into
northern Wisconsin tonight and slowly sliding southeast out of the
area on Friday as cold front slowly sags south and brings in colder
and drier air. Frontogenesis along the boundary strongest tonight
and Friday morning...shifting the precipitation from convection to
more frontogenetical type processes. A narrow ribbon of cape values
of over 1000j/kg will nose up into the western County Warning Area this afternoon
and evening...bringing a chance for moderate to strong thunderstorms
for mainly northwest Minnesota. Precipitable water values will be
up around 1.25 moderate to heavy rainfall is more likely
than severe storms. Highs today will be back up into the middle to
upper 70s...with some lower 80s possible for northwest Wisconsin and
areas south of Highway 210 in Minnesota. Tonight to remain mild
with lows in the 50s to around 60s. Behind the cold front on Friday
lows will be cooler...with highs only in the 60s most locations.

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 356 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

There could be lingering showers and storms in northwest Wisconsin Friday
evening in the wake of a passing cold front. Otherwise...this
weekend looks cool and dry as surface high pressure moves into the
region. Temperatures will begin the weekend about 10 to 15 degrees
below normal...but rebound to about 10 degree below normal on
Sunday. Parts of the Northland could get frost early Sunday.

Warm southerly flow will redevelop early next week as low pressure
approaches from the west. Temperatures will build back to normal by
Tuesday. There will be increasing chances of showers and storms
Sunday night into the middle of the week.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 630 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

The VFR conditions across NE Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin early this
morning will likely continue through this evening. Expect
increasing south to south-southwest winds this morning and afternoon. The kdlh
area will have low level winds from the east...from Lake
Superior...but winds from the south-southwest aloft. Therefore...included
low level wind shear at kdlh.

Showers and storms are possible this afternoon and into tonight.
The threat of thunder is primarily for kinl and kbrd. Will add
more detail about the thunder with subsequent forecast. There will
be an increasing south-southwest low level jet all terminals will
have a period of low level wind shear from wind speeds of 30 to 40 knots.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 70 50 65 41 / 10 80 60 0
inl 79 48 60 35 / 60 70 10 0
brd 81 58 64 41 / 10 60 40 0
hyr 82 59 69 42 / 10 80 80 20
asx 80 53 68 41 / 10 70 70 20


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...le
long term...grochocinski

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