Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
656 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Aviation.../12z taf issuance/
high pressure will bring VFR conditions to the Northland through
the taf period with clear skies. Only some scattered middle to high
clouds will be possible at times.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 236 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013/
Short term...dry high pressure is beginning to nose down into the
forecast area from Canada. A clearing trend is underway with a NE wind.
This will continue through the day with an upper level ridge
moving through the northern plains. The NE wind will diminish as
the day progresses with the pressure gradient relaxing and the surface
high moving over the forecast area. The ridge axis will be overhead by 12z
Friday with a clear sky tonight. With a cool temperature profile and the
clear sky...have min temperatures in the 20s over much of the forecast area...and
near freezing over the western edge of the area. Have a mention of
frost for the entire forecast area. The ridge axis moves over the central
Great Lakes on Friday. This allows a return flow/warm air advection regime to set
up. Clouds will be on the increase Friday afternoon ahead of a
West Coast trough.
Long term...Friday night through Thursday.
The main question for much of the period will revolve around
resolving various precipitation threats...given the dry Hudson Bay
origin high pressure originally over the area Friday evening. Think
the precipitation ahead of an incoming upper level ridge and with an
advancing frontal boundary will initially hit a wall as it tries to
spread too far east into the County Warning Area. The dry air should win for much of
the County Warning Area but the SW to west portions of the County Warning Area could see some spotty
showers and a few thunderstorms. Will confine the probability of precipitation for Friday
night to the SW 1/3 of the County Warning Area. We will continue with low probability of precipitation on
Saturday...but spread the probability of precipitation a bit further to cover the SW 2/3 of
the County Warning Area. The dry air will then battle back by Saturday night and
Sunday...although moisture will surge back into the upper Midwest
once again...which will likely mean a bit more precipitation Sunday
into Monday. The models are having a tough time with this pattern
but think it is best to go with a bit drier solution at this time.
Chances of precipitation will gradually increase from early to middle
next week...as the potential for mesoscale convective system activity increases across the
region. The slow moving low pressure system expected to set up shop
in the Central Plains will have periodic surges of moisture into the
upper Midwest...with moisture lifting northward above the warm front
that is expected to remain south of the region for much of the time.
High temperatures will largely start out in the 60s but moderate to
the 70s as the extended progresses.
Aviation...06z tafs
VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure
dominates the northlands weather. There will be some low level wind shear over
portions of northwest Wisconsin tonight...and we included in the
khyr taf.
&&
Point temps/pops...
dlh 59 34 63 43 / 0 0 0 10
inl 61 31 70 44 / 0 0 0 10
brd 66 35 69 49 / 0 0 0 40
hyr 60 23 66 43 / 0 0 0 10
asx 52 31 57 41 / 0 0 0 10
&&
Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...
Minnesota...none.
WI...none.
Ls...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am CDT this morning for lsz121-
146>148.
&&
$$
Short term...gsf
long term....dap
aviation...dap
