Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
653 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 345 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
At 330 am...it was fairly mild across the Northland. Temperatures
were generally in the 50s. Winds were gusty from the west to
northwest under mostly clear skies. There was an area of strato
cumulus across northwest Ontario...dropping to the southeast. Another
area of middle/high clouds stretched from NE Montana into SW Minnesota.
The main focus for today will be temperatures/wind and cloud cover. High
temperatures will probably change little from this early
morning...as cooler 850 mb temperatures push southward into the County Warning Area. Highs
will generally range from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Winds will
also be an issue today...and have increased winds across the
board. With dry low level air...we should have very efficient
momentum Transfer. Winds at 850 mb are in the 45 to 50 knot range. We
should see gusts into the 30 to 40 miles per hour range by this afternoon.
Clouds are a bit tricky...as we may see some of the stratocu drop
into the far arrowhead...and the area of middle/high clouds to the
south and west may actually make some progress into the County Warning Area for a
time. Overall we are looking for a good deal of sunshine today.
Tonight should be a cool night...with decreasing winds and cold
air aloft...temperatures should range from the middle 20s to the lower 30s.
Skies will generally be clear across the Northland.
Warm air advection will push in from the west once again on Sunday. Will continue
to mention a small pop across NC Minnesota by late afternoon as
precipitable water values approach an inch by late afternoon.
Long term...(sunday night through friday)
issued at 345 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
A broad 850 mb low with surface reflection cold front positioned ahead of a
deepening h50 wave...will translate east across the Northland Sunday
night. Have continued to carry a mention of thunder across the
southern half of the County Warning Area. Latest NAM bufr soundings show precipitable water values
approach an inch with strong 0-6km shear and sufficient elevated
cape to support thunder. The surface boundary stalls over Western Lake
Superior/Wisconsin Monday as the 850 mb trough becomes absorbed by the
main upper level wave centered over northern Minnesota/Ontario. Although
models differ in timing and amplitude...there is good agreement that
the long wave trough with closed h50 low migrates east through middle
week...allowing for a return to northwest flow and strong cold air
advection. Have broadbrush chance probability of precipitation with mix of rain and snow across
much of the County Warning Area Monday night through Tuesday to account for the h50
trough passage/cyclonic flow and wrap-around precipitation.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 650 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
VFR conditions will continue through the taf period. The region
will be situated between low pressure centered over Ontario...and
building high pressure in the Dakotas. The resulting pressure
gradient and steep lapse rates will result in gusty west to
northwest winds today. Latest NAM bufr soundings depict winds in
the 25 to 30 knots are found in the mixed layer this afternoon. The
strongest gusts will be found the tip of the Minnesota
arrowhead...decreasing to the south and west. Winds are expected
to diminish quickly this evening.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 58 33 56 44 / 0 0 10 50
inl 56 27 55 40 / 0 0 10 50
brd 58 34 61 46 / 0 0 20 20
hyr 60 31 59 45 / 0 0 10 60
asx 59 34 57 44 / 0 0 0 60
Ls...Small Craft Advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for lsz121-140>148.