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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1129 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW EARLY NOW
THAT THE WIND SPEEDS ARE DECREASING. THERE MAY BE PATCHY AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING IN LOCAL AREAS OF MORE OPEN
COUNTRY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A TYPICAL MARCH SNOW STORM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND 
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BREEZY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR ARE MOVING IN 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA AS OF 3PM. 
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A COLD AND BREEZY DAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES 
POSSIBLE...A BRIEF RETURN TO THE CONDITIONS THAT PERSISTED MOST OF 
FEBRUARY.

FORECAST WAS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE FOR TODAYS STORM AND APPEARS ON 
TRACK FOR THE EVENING. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA ARE 
MEETING OUR EXPECTATIONS AS FAR AS WIND SPEEDS...WITH PEAK GUSTS 
NEAR OR JUST OVER 35KTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE 
EVENING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THESE BREEZY TO 
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. CALLS TO SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT 
INDICATED THAT WHILE CONDITIONS WERE NOT EXTREME...SOME BLOWING AND 
DRIFTING WAS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. FOR THIS REASON 
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE...THOUGH THIS 
MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED SHOULD WINDS WEAKEN EARLIER THAN 
ANTICIPATED. 

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS 
COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN ACTUALLY 
JUST AS COLD AS THE MANY ARCTIC AIRMASSES THAT MOVED ACROSS THE 
UPPER MIDWEST LAST MONTH...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE -25 TO -30C 
RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES OF -5 TO -15...WITH FEW 
SPOTS ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EVEN COLDER. THE NORTHWEST 
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT NOT BY MUCH...WHICH WILL RESULT 
IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE -25 TO -35 RANGE. FOR THIS REASON 
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR 06Z THROUGH 18Z.

WEDNESDAY...COLD WITH SOME CLOUDS. WHILE A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MAY
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL LARGE SCALE
FORCING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE JUST SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND BREEZY
AT TIMES. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...WITH IS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW 
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS 20S BELOW ZERO. WE MAY AGAIN 
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO 25 TO 
40 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE 
REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS. A 
MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS THEN IN STORE FOR THE LATTER PART OF 
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE 
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE 
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES. WE SHOULD STILL GENERALLY BE 
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION 
INTO THE 30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BY FRIDAY. HIGHS BY NEXT TUESDAY 
COULD BE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO 
SOME DECENT SNOW MELT ACROSS THE CWA...AND THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE IT 
COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EVENT OF THE SNOW 
MELT AND THE WARMER AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE COLD SNOW PACK. NOT MUCH 
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR SYSTEMS BRINGING SMALL CHANCE 
EVENTS FOR THE CWA. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THERE WERE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AND 10 TO 15 MPH WNW WINDS
ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THERE WERE
POCKETS OF BKN MVFR CIGS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THE SKIES WERE
CLEAR.

THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS COULD
REDEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE KINL
AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -6   5 -14  12 /  10  10   0   0 
INL -14   3 -21  13 /  10  20   0   0 
BRD  -9   6 -16  15 /  10  10   0   0 
HYR  -6   7 -18  12 /  10  10  10   0 
ASX  -1   7 -13  14 /  20  20  20   0 

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

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