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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
1141 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 322 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

The Northland will remain on the far northern periphery of the
large storm system affecting much of the central part of the
country through tomorrow. In fact..most of the large-scale
organized precipitation should end across the Duluth County Warning Area by middle
evening..with the exception of some light lake-effect snow showers
that will persist into Friday morning along the South Shore of Lake

Precipitation has changed to all snow across northwest Wisconsin as of 3 PM..and
a general 1-2 inches are expected in many locales over the next
3-5 hours before precipitation ends. Low level cold advection will
persist overnight..and with lake temperatures still in the middle 40s and 850
temperatures approaching -10c..this should be sufficient to activate
some light lake effect snow showers later tonight/Friday morning
over the Bayfield peninsula and Gogebic Range. However..all the
short range models also have the lower atmosphere rapidly drying
out we expect any additional amounts to be fairly
light and localized to locations where orographic lift is

Temperatures should be able to cool well into the single digits across
interior northern Minnesota tonight/Friday morning with clearing
skies and at least a small amount of fresh snow. However..the
coldest of the airmass will be very short low level warm
advection will begin by Friday afternoon as winds turn to the

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 322 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

An area of high pressure builds across the northern plains this
weekend resulting in a sunny and seasonable weekend. Next week a
low approaches from the west which could result in wintry
precipitation late Monday into Tuesday...and while uncertainty
remains as to the exact track of the low it looks like at least
parts of the Northland could see accumulating snowfall...with the
best chance from the Interstate 35 corridor east across northwest

On the synoptic scale a strong area of high pressure building in
across the northern plains Friday will gradually migrate eastward
into the middle/upper Mississippi Valley over the weekend. While this
is happening an upper low over the southwest will meander into the
Great Basin then exit across The Rockies and into the Central
Plains Monday into Tuesday. Guidance has become to come into
better agreement with the track of this upper low...but still some
uncertainties remain since in most cases the Northland would be on
the northern periphery of the system. European model (ecmwf) takes the upper low
center over Iowa Tuesday then east into southern
Wisconsin/northern Illinois while a weak surface low develops over the
Upper Peninsula Tuesday night. GFS has a deeper surface low that
develops in Iowa Monday night then shifts to northeast Wisconsin
Tuesday...crossing the u.P. Into Ontario on Tuesday night. Gem
/Canadian/ is much further north bringing the upper low into
southern to central Minnesota Tuesday into Tuesday night. All
solution appear reasonable...and in any case this does not look to
be an unusually strong system. While high pressure is over the
upper Midwest this weekend temperatures will warm...and while the upper
low will bring colder air from the Central Plains into the upper
Midwest...this is not the usual source of cold air and there is a
chance this event could be more of a rain/snow event instead of
the mainly snow as currently forecast. Amounts will be light...1-3
inches maybe...and this low will quickly exit the region to the
northeast by Wednesday.

Temperatures seasonable to mild this weekend into the middle of next week
with highs in the low to middle 30s. Friday night will be chilly with
clear skies and cold air aloft...lows in the single digits with
perhaps a few spots falling to near zero. Then lows increasing into


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1135 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the Northland as the
night wears on and into Friday. It will take some time for the
strato cumulus clouds to fully break up...and for the dry air to
build into the taf sites. Largely MVFR conditions are expected
overnight...with broken to occasionally scattered low clouds.
Conditions will become VFR across all the taf sites on Friday and
continue that way into Friday evening.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 11 24 8 34 / 0 0 0 0
inl 1 23 11 33 / 0 0 0 0
brd 10 25 10 34 / 0 0 0 0
hyr 16 28 5 35 / 20 10 0 0
asx 17 27 11 38 / 40 20 0 0


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...
Ls...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am CST Friday for lsz121-146-147.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 am CST Friday for lsz148.




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