Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
312 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Short term...today...current surface analysis shows rain showers
continuing across most of the forecast area except over the
southern portions of the northwest WI area. The only exception is across
the far north where a ridge of drier air is pushing into
Minnesota. This ridge will slowly push southeast today ending the
precipitation north to south as the upper low finally pulls off to the
east by tonight. The rain showers occurring early this morning is
in the deformation zone that will slowly slide southeast
this morning. Will keep the advisory up for now as rivers and
creeks are high but some are cresting now. There may be some rises
due to the latest rains but should not be much.
Tonight...the influence of the ridge will spread into northwest WI by
this evening with all rain showers ending in Price County by 06z
Thursday. Skies will continue to clear and much drier air will push
into the region.
Thursday...the flow around the Canadian high will push very
dry air into the forecast area. This ridge will allow for deep
mixing which will dry out the column. Relative humidities will
drop into the 20s across the region with the lowest values in The
Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.
Long term...Thursday night through Wednesday.
High pressure will be directly over the Northland on Thursday
night...allowing temperatures to plunge through the 30s. May even
see some 20s...especially across portions of northwest WI and the Minnesota
arrowhead...where winds will likely go calm. Have dropped temperatures to
freezing or a little below for now. We do not start frost and freeze
headlines until after this time frame but will likely see a good
frost if not a freeze. The weather then starts to get a little more
questionable starting Friday night and continuing through the rest
of the extended...as Hudson Bay high pressure battles emerging low
pressure to the west. In all likelihood the only real battleground
should be in the SW portion of the County Warning Area...with mainly dry conditions
across the NE half or so of the County Warning Area. Will go with consensus probability of precipitation for
now...which favor the SW half with some small probability of precipitation. In all it does
not look like a very wet period...just periodic chances of some
light precipitation...especially SW. Better chances of seeing
precipitation across the region will be from Monday through
Wednesday...and especially toward midweek. Temperatures will likely
start in the 60s and recover to the 70s throughout the extended.
Point temps/pops...
dlh 54 37 60 36 / 70 10 0 0
inl 66 39 62 34 / 10 10 0 0
brd 60 42 65 37 / 70 10 0 0
hyr 53 38 61 32 / 50 20 0 0
asx 49 38 54 32 / 60 10 0 0
&&
Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...
Minnesota...none.
WI...none.
Ls...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am CDT this morning for lsz121-
140>148.
&&
$$
Short term...Stewart
long term....dap
