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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
322 PM CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 322 PM CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014

Short term concern cloud coverage/fog tonight in northwest WI.

Current surface analysis indicates the rain from earlier today has
moved east of the area. The western edge of the cloudiness is
along the Minnesota/WI border moving east. Based on the sref/dlhwrf...
this edge should clear northwest WI by 06z. The next concern is the
possible formation of fog in northwest WI. With the moisture leftover
from the earlier rains...clear skies...and light winds...fog
formation will be likely across portions of northwest WI. Some of the fog
could be dense and widespread so will put a dense fog advisory in
effect from 06z-15z for the southern northwest WI counties. For
Friday...skies will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures in the
middle 60s to near 70.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 322 PM CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
a cold front crosses the forecast area Friday night. A strong pressure gradient
follows into Saturday as high pressure begins to build into the
area. No precipitation is expected to accompany the front as the atmosphere
is fairly dry. Upper level and surface ridging begin to build across the
forecast area from the west on Saturday into Saturday night. On Sunday...the ridge
begins to slip off to the east as low pressure begins to organize in
the northern plains. The western half of the forecast area will be under a
return flow/warm air advection pattern. Moisture will begin to move into the
area...but precipitation should hold off and have no probability of precipitation. Model differences
begin Sunday night and last through Tuesday night. The GFS appears
to be the outlier with its strong surface low/cyclogenesis practically
on top of the forecast area. Gem/European model (ecmwf) are much weaker with there mass fields.
Used a consensus model blend...leaning towards the weaker solutions
through Wednesday for probability of precipitation. There is enough instability over a
portion of the southern forecast area Sunday night and Monday to warrant adding
a slight chance of thunder.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1217 PM CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014

IFR ceilings/visibility at hyr until 22z then VFR. Bring the br and
MVFR/isolated IFR visibilities to hyr from 03z to 15z. IFR ceiling at dlh until
20z then VFR. Brought some br to dlh with MVFR visibility from 06z to
14z. VFR elsewhere.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 45 67 46 57 / 0 0 0 0
inl 42 69 42 54 / 0 0 0 0
brd 44 68 44 58 / 0 0 0 0
hyr 43 66 45 58 / 0 0 0 0
asx 44 68 46 59 / 0 0 0 0


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...dense fog advisory from 1 am to 10 am CDT Friday for wiz006>009.



Short term...Stewart
long term...gsf

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