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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
339 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 338 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

Strong high pressure system centered over Minnesota at 20z will keep
the short term quiet... but cold this afternoon and into the
morning. High temperatures today ran 5-10 degrees below climatological
normals... and temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s during the
time many will be out trick-or-treating. Parents should consider
ensuring their children wear the appropriate clothing with their
costumes for the cold weather.

With clearing skies and light winds... a significant radiational
cooling event will likely take place tonight. Have decided to
undercut much of the guidance and put emphasis on the Gem regional
in the way of temperatures. Expecting much of the Northland to bottom out
in the teens... and warmer in the 20s near the lake.

The high will gradually sag towards the southeast into Iowa by 12z
Saturday. The County Warning Area will be on the backside of the high in a tight
pressure gradient. As a result... winds will pick up out of the
south and will be gusty... mainly along our western counties. The
Brainerd lakes area may see gusts near 25mph or so... but will
likely stay near 10mph across The Arrowhead and northwestern
Wisconsin. With some warm air advection accompanying the southerly
flow... temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday than they
were today... but not by much. Despite the cold...sunny skies will
remain in place through the weekend.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 338 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

Most of the extended period will controlled by an upper level low
pressure area...but in the meantime....
an upper level ridge over the region will give a fair day on Sunday.
Increasing southerly flow will help warm temperatures to about
normal levels..in the 40s. These south winds will be in response to
a surface low that will develop over the central rockies as the height
falls brings a trough onto the western coast.
On Sunday the warm push will bring 800 mb temperatures back up into the single
digits above zero on strong south/southwest winds. The surface low will
bring a front through the region on Monday night and Tuesday two
very strong vorticity maxes will be rotating through the upper trough. The
northern branch may stay north of the border but the southern
branch has a better chance of bringing some showers into southern
areas of the Northland Monday afternoon and night. Forecast
soundings indicate no ice in the column so do not expect snow.

Behind this system we go into a period of northwest flow aloft with
embedded shortwaves through Thursday. This will result in daily
slight to small chance probability of precipitation...especially across the northern County Warning Area.
Temperatures to remain near to below normal.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1241 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the taf period with sky clear and
light winds. Early in the period...18z-21z there will be a few
sct030 at khyr with winds g20...but skies will clear and winds
diminish by late afternoon.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 19 38 29 45 / 0 0 0 0
inl 18 39 26 46 / 0 0 0 10
brd 19 40 29 48 / 0 0 0 0
hyr 17 41 27 47 / 0 0 0 0
asx 20 41 29 49 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...
Minnesota...none.
WI...none.
Ls...none.
&&

$$

Short term...mclovin
long term...clc
aviation...clc

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