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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
329 am CDT Monday Jul 14 2014

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 329 am CDT Monday Jul 14 2014

Concerns for short term is precipitation chances today

Current surface analysis indicates an area of showers in NE Minnesota
slowly moving southeast. Most areas have received less than a
tenth of rain. This feature is associated with a shortwave moving
through the flow around an upper low in southern Canada just north
of Minnesota. Also...805mb temperatures will drop to the +2 to +4 range today as
cooler air continues to push into the region. Due to this
unseasonably cooler air aloft and the lift for the
shortwave...the instability will increase by this afternoon.
MUCAPES will rise to the 250-500 range and Li reading will fall to
the +1 to -1 range. Have kept the isolated thunder in forecast in northwest
WI and have extended them into NE Minnesota and there will be some
instability in that area. Winds will be high today than yesterday
with mixing down expected as the instability increases.

The shortwave moves east of the region tonight as an area of high
pressure builds into the forecast area. The question of low temperatures
will be how soon the clouds push out and the effect of the ridge
takes over. Will have low temperatures in the 40s. It is a possibility
upper 30s could be seen in some of the usual colder areas.
On Tuesday...the ridge will be in control and skies will be
mostly sunny with temperatures in the 60s.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 329 am CDT Monday Jul 14 2014

A quiet weather pattern for middle to late week as the anomalous upper
trough advects slowly eastward. Weak remnants of upper level
circulation will linger through Thursday before progressive upper
air pattern transitions to a light west-northwest flow Friday...and increasing
SW flow Saturday. At the surface a large high pressure system will
prevail throughout most of the week. By Friday the axis of the high
shifts east enough to initiate a warm advection pattern in response
to backing middle level flow. Some of the models have suggested that an
area of weak isentropic lift occurs across northern County Warning Area in return flow
Friday. Will leave some low probability of precipitation for that possibility. Otherwise
maintaining continuity with a dry spell for most of the County Warning Area until
more definition arrives regarding forcing and sufficient moisture.
Models do increase consensus that an approaching trough/surface frontal
system will eventually sweep precipitation across the region this weekend.
At this time...the main window of ascent appears to be Sat
night/early Sunday. Beyond that time the pattern aloft diverges
between model solutions so confidence drops accordingly.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1218 am CDT Monday Jul 14 2014

Large upper low over the region will cause ceilings to slowly
deteriorate overnight...expecting MVFR ceilings with light rain
showers to develop over the area spreading over the area from
northwest to southeast. These ceilings expected to linger over the
area in the morning. Heights should rise to around 25hft in the
afternoon. A return to VFR is expected after 00z this
evening. Would not be especially surprised to see some areas of
lower ceilings and -shra...but timing in location cannot be pinned
down at this time.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 59 48 67 46 / 70 30 10 0
inl 63 47 69 40 / 60 10 0 0
brd 64 50 70 48 / 50 10 10 0
hyr 60 48 69 42 / 70 40 10 0
asx 60 48 65 40 / 70 40 10 0


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Stewart
long term...Cannon

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