Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
1236 am CDT Friday may 24 2013
Aviation...06z tafs.
VFR conditions under mainly clear skies will prevail tonight with
light winds.
High pressure to our east will help turn winds to south to southeast
on Friday...then eventually more east to southeast late in the
period.
Warm air advection and a disturbance aloft will cause middle to upper level clouds to
increase through the day Friday. Ceilings will lower late in the
afternoon into the evening from west to east with showers possible.
Kinl/kbrd will have the best chance at seeing some showers late in
this forecast period.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 638 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013/
Aviation...00z tafs
VFR conditions will prevail through the period and winds will become
light tonight. The core of the high will move east of the Northland
tonight into Friday...and winds will become south to southeast for
most areas. Middle to high clouds will increase late in the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 308 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013/
Short term...(tonight through friday)...current surface analysis
indicate clear skies across the forecast area as the ridge
dominates the weather. It will continue to move east but will
dominate the weather across the region through midday Friday.
Skies will be clear tonight and the min temperatures will drop below
freezing in most places away from the lake. Will have areas of
frost across the area for early Friday morning. The high will move
east of the region Friday as a warm front approaches the forecast
area from the west. The clouds will increase west to east Friday
afternoon as it approaches and low probability of precipitation in southern Cass by late
afternoon.
Long term [friday night - wednesday]...
High pressure over eastern Canada and the eastern United States will
help to keep the Northland dry early this weekend...but there will
be increasing chances of showers and storms from the west due to low
pressure in the plains. Temperatures should be slightly below normal
early this week...but there will be a warming trend next week. The
middle to late week period could be rather active for thunderstorms
across or near the Northland. The GFS/Gem/ECMWF suggest one or two
warm fronts lifting through or near the Northland middle to late next
week...which could be the focus for thunderstorms. The second warm
front indicated by the GFS and European model (ecmwf) for later in the week could be
the more active front. It is too early to have any clear idea on the
potential for severe weather...but this second warm front may be the
most likely opportunity of the week for the Northland at seeing any
severe weather.
&&
Point temps/pops...
dlh 63 43 58 41 / 10 30 20 10
inl 70 44 64 43 / 10 30 20 0
brd 69 49 61 48 / 50 60 40 20
hyr 66 43 63 43 / 10 30 20 10
asx 57 41 61 40 / 0 10 10 0
&&
Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...
Minnesota...none.
WI...none.
Ls...none.
&&
$$
Aviation...melde
