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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
558 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 331 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

Surface low now over northwest Ontario is dragging a cold front
across the forecast area this afternoon...slowly converting an area
of drizzle or very light rain over to light snow as it moves through
this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures to remain mild as well...
with mins tonight ranging from upper teens to middle 30s.

On Thursday a second surface low ripples along the cold front...that
by Thursday morning will be draped from near Kansas City northeast
to Green Bay. This will send another surge of precipitation up into
mainly northwest Wisconsin Thursday afternoon and evening. Soundings
show that this will be all snow...and expect that snowfall amounts
of 1 to 3 inches are possible into Price County...with lower amounts
to the northwest. Northeast Minnesota should not get any more than
a dusting. A little bit of lake effect snow should set up for the
South Shore Thursday night as in the northwest flow will get down to
around -7 or colder after 21z...which is enough for lake effect snow
to set up as Lake Superior surface temperatures range from 5 to 8

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 331 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

Near-normal to slightly above normal temperatures through the
weekend and into next week with highs in the low to middle 30s Saturday
through Tuesday. Mainly sunny skies through the weekend as an area
of high pressure builds in...then a chance for wintry precipitation
as a low approaches from the west next Mon/tues.

On the synoptic scale an upper low over the southwest through the
Holiday weekend will eventually make its way east across The Rockies
and into the Great Plains...but exactly where it GOES is uncertain
at this point due to a wide range of model solutions. In most
scenarios there would be a chance for wintry precipitation mainly
along and south of Highway 2...and a chance for lake enhancement
from the twin ports east along the South Shore of Lake Superior due
to a period of northwest winds. At this point most scenarios do not
look like a high impact event for the Northland. Otherwise a fairly
seasonable weekend as high pressure builds across the middle/upper
Mississippi Valley with 850mb temperatures around 0c...which is on the mild
side of normal compared to regional sounding climatology.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 555 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

A typical November pattern is shaping up across the Northland
through the taf low pressure moves southeast of the
region...and high pressure is anchored to the northwest. A cold
front will continue to push southeast tonight. Low clouds will be
trapped underneath a subsidence inversion even behind the front
tonight...with MVFR to IFR conditions being the rule. Conditions
will improve a bit in the northwestern portion of the County Warning Area on
Thursday...namely kinl. Some spotty drizzle or light rain is
possible overnight...with some spotty snow showers on Thursday.
The best chance of snow showers will be in northwest WI.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 27 27 15 27 / 20 30 0 0
inl 17 22 9 25 / 20 0 0 0
brd 25 27 15 29 / 10 20 0 0
hyr 32 32 21 31 / 30 50 30 10
asx 32 33 23 30 / 30 50 40 10


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...
Ls...Small Craft Advisory from 10 am Thursday to 4 am CST Friday for



Short term...le
long term...jjm

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