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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1148 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

COLD FRONT HAS REACHED NW WI AND WAS LOCATED FROM THE APOSTLE
ISLANDS TO FT. RIPLEY AT 12Z. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CLOUDS AND FLURRIES PERSIST. MINOR
UPDATE TO CLEAN UP WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

CLOSED H5 LOW HAD MOVED INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AS OF 08Z WITH 
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN MN. 
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NE MN AND WAS JUST ABOUT 
TO THE TWIN PORTS. CLOUDS COVERED THE FA BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND 
THE FRONT. SOME FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT 
AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 12Z AS THE COLD FRONT 
MARCHES ON. BY 15Z...THE FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED NW WI AND THE CLOUDS 
AND FLURRIES WILL DEPART. A COLD NW WIND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH 
VERY DRY AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL TAKE 
AWHILE FOR THE NW WIND TO REACH THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND 
THE CAA NEEDED TO BEGIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS 
AND THE QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED. HAVE LOW POPS DUE TO THESE 
UNCERTAINTIES.

WITH A NW FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER LAKE 
SUPERIOR...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS OVER THE FAVORED AREAS FOR 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES 
TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MIN TEMPS AT NIGHT WILL DROP 
WELL BELOW ZERO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 
ABOVE. WIND CHILLS WILL BEGIN TO FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST 
TONIGHT...BUT THE LACK OF DEEP COLD AIR WILL KEEP THE VALUES FROM 
DROPPING OFF TOO FAR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 
ZERO OVER NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE TEENS BELOW OVER THE 
BORDERLAND. WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO WILL BE FOUND 
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MINNESOTA. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL 
PROBABLY NEED TO AN ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR LATE MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT 
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR 
MONDAY NIGHT LINGERING INTO TUESDAY WITH AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH. 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING BELOW 
ZERO OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME ON 
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE AREA. THE 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COMING 
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH PERIODIC  
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER ACROSS NRN MN/NW WI FOR A CHANGE
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. AS MUCH COLDER..AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY DRIER AIR..MOVES INTO THE REGION..STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED..WITH ONLY BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS HANGING ON AT
KHYR. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THERE AS WELL WITHIN THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OF THIS VALID TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY..WITH NW WINDS IN THE 5-12 KT
RANGE. WINDS AND SOME GUSTINESS WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH SOME WEAK PRESSURE
RISES..BUT NOT EXPECTING GUSTS ABOVE 20KT AT THIS TIME. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND FLURRIES AS
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  -4   6  -8 /   0   0   0  10 
INL   4 -10   1 -14 /   0   0   0   0 
BRD  17  -2   7  -8 /   0   0   0   0 
HYR  18  -2   9  -9 /  10  10  10  10 
ASX  17   4  11  -2 /  10  20  20  20 

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

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