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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
652 am CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

issued at 644 am CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

Updated aviation section below.


Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 339 am CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

Main concerns in the short term are focused around the potential
once again for showers and storms over the northern half of the
forecast area this afternoon...and once again late tonight through
the day Friday along a passing cold front. Warm temperatures will
also be of concern today and Friday.

Weak ridging aloft combined with a surface high over the western Great Lakes
this morning will keep conditions quiet early today. A weak surface
trough will move in from the northwest late this morning and through the
afternoon...and work in conjunction with increasing instability and
steepening lapse rates over The Arrowhead to produce a round of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best chance will
exist over lake and Cook counties in the middle to late afternoon
hours. Temperatures today will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s
over much of the region...slightly warmer than yesterday. Slightly
cooler conditions expected along the North Shore north of Two

Conditions will stabilize tonight as surface temperatures cool into
the 50s. The scattered convection will dissipate again...but
possibly develop again ahead of the next incoming cold front closer
to Friday morning over the Borderland region. The surface front and
associated upper short wave will slowly move in from the northwest through the day
Friday and combine with increasingly unstable air in the late
morning and afternoon to produce scattered showers and storms.
Temperatures into the upper 70s and lower 80s...and a push of
moisture from the south will create bl cape values into the 500-1000
j/kg range ahead of the front. Severe weather is not
expected...however small hail...locally heavy rain and cloud to
ground lightning are possible. Widespread amts around a quarter of
an inch are possible...with locally heavier rain not out of the

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 339 am CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

The cold front slowly sagging through the area on Friday will
continue to drop south Friday night...mainly in the evening.
Otherwise...a surface ridge will build into the area to keep
things quiet for much of Saturday and Saturday night... hopefully
allowing for fireworks displays. Saturday will be warm and humid
with highs in the middle 70s over the tip of The the
low 80s towards Brainerd.

Our next weathermaker will move into the area beginning on Sunday
and continuing into Monday. Have had some concerns for severe
storms on Sunday as the timing of the front will be moving through
the area during the afternoon. For appears the best shear
will be much farther south...even though plenty of instability will
be in place during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures on
Sunday will be the warmest of the upcoming week...with highs from
the upper 70s to middle 80s. It will be much cooler on Monday with
highs only in the 70s behind the cold front.

Cooler temperatures will continue into early next week with
northwest cyclonic flow aloft and a surface ridge over the area.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the area on
Wednesday and another cold front sags through the


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 644 am CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

Fog around khib is expected to diminish by 13z this
morning...before returning to VFR for the rest of the period.
Remaining sites should also be VFR through the taf period. Showers
and a few thunderstorms expected to pop up over The Arrowhead of
Minnesota generally 21z-03z...but should stay away from the
terminals. After 05z showers are expected to move into kinl and
then khib around 08z...and have put in vcsh to these locations for


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 78 59 76 56 / 20 20 50 10
inl 79 58 77 51 / 20 50 20 0
brd 80 56 80 56 / 10 20 40 10
hyr 78 55 77 55 / 10 10 30 30
asx 79 58 77 55 / 10 10 40 20


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...tentinger
long term...le

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