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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
655 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015

..updated for aviation discussion...

Short term...(this afternoon through saturday)
issued at 1200 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015


Much more tranquil sensible weather is expected for this evening compared
to the last two evenings. There will still be a chance for thunderstorms,
but this activity should be much more limited in terms of coverage and
intensity. Followed a blend of hrrr and arw guidance, which shows convection
moving across our northern zones. There might be another shot at convection
towards 06z across south-central Kansas as described by the NAM. Confidence
is lower in this solution as dry air advects in and instability becomes
mediocre to non-existent. Severe weather is not expected as shear and
cape is marginal. There could be some marginal storms, but that is about
it. Lows will be a little bit cooler (upper 40s to lower 50s) as drier
air/low dewpoints advect in as already mentioned above.


A precipitation-free forecast is expected tomorrow with probability of precipitation at zero
percent. Highs will be cooler under the 11-16c 850-hpa air mass. Expecting
values in the 68-71f range. Winds will slowly veer around to the east
by dusk.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 340 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015

Southwest Kansas will be in a quieter period weather-wise during
the first first few days of the extended period. By Saturday
night, the upper level trough currently over the northern and
Central Plains will have moved east into the Great Lakes and
Mississippi Valley. Farther west, upper level ridging will be
building east across the northern and central rockies into the
adjacent High Plains. Surface high pressure will be extending from
the Midwest into the central and Southern Plains. The cool high
pressure will result in overnight lows Sunday morning in the middle
40s to low 50s. Increasing westerly flow across the northern into
the Central Plains will induce Lee side troughing along the
eastern slopes of the northern and central rockies. East of the
trough, a strengthening pressure gradient will bring increasing
southerly winds to western Kansas along with some modest low level
moisture return.

By late Sunday through late Monday, a few of the medium range models
hint at some thunderstorm potential somewhere across the High
Plains given the moisture return and increase in low level warm
moist advection. This type of pattern holds trough middle week. Low
level moisture will be increasing with time. There will be
increasing chances for evening and nighttime mesoscale convective system development
across the Central High plains as the low level jet helps focus
thunderstorm development. Better chances for mesoscale convective system development may
be focused more over Nebraska and possibly northern Kansas where
the nose of the low level jet will be located. The atmosphere may
remain better capped farther south across western Kansas, keeping
thunderstorms more isolated.

Toward next weekend, the models show an upper level trough
redeveloping over the western Continental U.S. With upper flow turning more
southwesterly over the Central High plains. The European model (ecmwf) is more
amplified with this pattern than the GFS but either way, this
pattern could bring increasing chances for thunderstorms and
heavy rain across western Kansas.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 653 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible through 02z as an
upper level trough approaches; but these should weaken with the
loss of daytime heating. Winds will increase to 10-15 kts from the
north behind a cold front between 02 and 04z and then level off
around 10 kts toward morning. MVFR ceilings will develop behind a cold
front between 03 and 05z and then become VFR with daytime heating by


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 53 70 48 77 / 20 0 0 0
gck 51 69 49 79 / 20 0 0 0
eha 51 70 52 83 / 10 0 0 0
lbl 52 71 50 80 / 20 0 0 0
hys 52 69 46 77 / 20 0 0 0
p28 55 71 49 77 / 30 0 0 0


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Sugden
long term...gerard

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