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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1100 am CST Sat Nov 28 2015

..updated aviation...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 139 am CST Sat Nov 28 2015

In the very short term, the last narrow axis of mainly light
freezing rain was beginning to pull away from the forecast area
and into central Kansas. The precip type at Dodge City when that went
through earlier was entirely freezing rain -- which is quite
unusual with a surface temperature of 22 degrees. The shallow cold
layer in the first 500 meters above ground level must be modifying just enough to
prevent refreeze of liquid water droplets back to ice pellets
before hitting the ground. We like to use a shallow layer minimum
temperature of -6c as a good proxy to discriminate sleet from
freezing rain when it comes to the near-surface shallow cold
layer. At any rate, there is now a fresh glaze of ice anywhere
between 5 and 10 hundredths of an inch from that last batch of
precip. We will be keeping the Winter Weather Advisory headline
going until 18z today as one last batch will probably clip south
central Kansas later on in the morning. Otherwise, it should be dry
across the remainder of southwest and west central Kansas today with
continued low overcast and temperatures stuck in the 20s. Low
level winds will begin to shift around to the southeast, and given
the saturated 1500-3000 foot layer, cannot rule out some patchy
freezing drizzle later on in the day...mainly east of Highway
283. The surface ridge will become centered over southwest Kansas
later tonight, so winds will be light at around 5 to 8 mph. We
will keep some patchy freezing drizzle in the central and south
central Kansas counties, but the lower tropospheric winds will be
really weak with little in the way of shallow layer forcing for
ascent to get some drizzle droplet development.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 402 am CST Sat Nov 28 2015

The emphasis on the long term period is late Sunday into early
Monday as the main body of the upper low finally comes out into the
Central Plains. The latest forecast track of the low will support
highest snow accumulations just north of our forecast area, however
at least some accumulating snow will occur across our west central
Kansas counties. The bigger problem may be a regeneration of widespread
freezing drizzle from late Sunday and especially Sunday night when
low level warm advection increases in the saturated lower
troposphere off the surface. A surface low will develop Sunday
evening near Springfield, Colorado with the surface low moving almost due
east across southwest Kansas during the first half of the day
Monday. The latest thinking is a 2-4 inches of snow in the Syracuse
to Scott City to WaKeeney and Hays areas. Even higher amounts in the
4-6 inch range will likely occur just north of our forecast area in
gld's eastern forecast area of northwest Kansas. It will be tough to
dislodge this shallow cold airmass, so went with the coldest
guidance I could find (wrf-arw) with only slight modification off it
(highs upper 20s to around 30 on sunday). The far eastern County Warning Area
(central into south central ks) will likely see a swath of warm
conveyor precipitation developing late Sunday into Sunday night as
well...and the precipitation type will be a real challenge. The GFS
suggests mainly sleet along The Ark river corridor with a tendency
toward freezing rain south of there to the OK border. Surface
temperature across far south central Kansas may warm up to just above
32f, though. All in all, it is another very difficult forecast for
precipitation type again with the shallow cold dome slowly modifying
as this upper low finally comes out.

We will see some downslope westerlies come in Tuesday and Wednesday
with some slight warming finally with welcomed sun. Another southern
stream disturbance will move across Texas/Red River valley Wed night
into Thursday, but it should remain far enough south with no impact
on our weather.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1100 am CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Poor flight conditions all around. Not a period for VFR/Georgia pilots. MVFR/IFR
conditions today will continue and will decrease to LIFR as cigs lower
along with freezing drizzle tonight. Winds will be north/NE 5-15 kt.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 25 21 31 26 / 30 10 50 60
gck 25 20 30 25 / 10 10 40 70
eha 30 20 30 25 / 10 10 40 50
lbl 27 21 32 25 / 10 10 40 60
hys 27 20 29 26 / 20 10 50 80
p28 30 26 33 30 / 80 10 60 70


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ksz066-



Short term...umscheid
long term...umscheid

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