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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
608 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

..update to aviation...

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 115 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated 500 mb vort Max exiting the Wyoming rockies and pushing into
the High Plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the High
Plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(f). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 j/kg and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the High
Plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(f) across central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(f) in south
central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(f) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(f) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
850 mb temperatures will still be up near 30c.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 305 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

There is an outside chance for thunderstorms across central Kansas
late Thursday as medium range models indicate an upper level
shortwave tracks eastward across the northern plains early in the
time period. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak above
much of southwest and south central Kansas, all models show a
modest upper level jet core streaming eastward eastward across
Nebraska and clipping portions of northern Kansas. As low/mid
level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the arrival of a
cold front attendant to the shortwave to our north, a few isolated
thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas in the vicinity
of the I-70 corridor during the late Thursday afternoon/early
evening time frame. Otherwise, drier conditions are likely across
central and southwest Kansas through Friday as upper level ridging
across the Desert Southwest and southern rockies moves east into
the western High Plains. Chances for precip may return Friday
night as the GFS and European model (ecmwf) both show a weak upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Colorado rockies into the High Plains of
northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.
Plenty of uncertainty remains as to the track and timing of this
system but the best chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
more northern portions of the forecast area, to include west
central and central Kansas, if at all.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected Thursday as a low level
southerly flow re-establishes itself across western Kansas ahead of
an approaching cold front. Widespread 90s(f) are expected for highs
Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday will be dependent on how far south
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier reaches before stalling out.
Regardless, highs should reach the 90s(f) for the most part,
especially further south along the Oklahoma border. Highs could
reach near 100f in some locations Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridging moves into the western High Plains to finish
out the week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 607 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will move southeast
across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas this
evening, potentially affecting all taf sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all taf sites through early Wednesday
afternoon. Southerly winds of around 15 to 25kt will persist
through early this evening as a Lee side trough of low pressure
edges slowly eastward into extreme western Kansas. Winds are then
expected to subside below 15kt overnight while becoming more
variable as the surface trough moves further east across western
Kansas.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 65 93 69 98 / 30 0 0 10
gck 65 94 68 98 / 10 0 0 10
eha 65 97 68 98 / 10 0 0 10
lbl 65 97 69 100 / 10 0 0 10
hys 65 88 68 95 / 60 10 0 20
p28 68 92 71 98 / 40 10 0 10

&&

Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...jjohnson
long term...jjohnson
aviation...jjohnson

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