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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1100 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

..update to aviation...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 418 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

Snow has been falling in a band from Liberal through Greensburg
and Pratt through the early morning hours. This banding has
occurred in a favorable area of frontogenesis at the 800-700
millibar layer underneath the right entrance region of a 150 knot
upper level jet. Another area of light snow over northwest Kansas
has been propagating south in an area of forcing associated with
the main 500 millibar trough that extends from the northern plains
into western Colorado. Low level high pressure has been building
down through the High Plains overnight and advecting some very dry
air into western Kansas. The dry air has kept snow from reaching
the ground for a time overnight but snow has since begun to
accumulate as the lower levels moisten up.

Short term models have been zeroing in on the idea of the most
significant snow accumulation to occur from around Liberal through
Greensburg and Pratt. The back edge of the band appears to be
diminishing around Liberal, where 3-4 inches have already fallen.
Expect that we could see at least that much, with locally heavier
amounts possible, farther northeast toward Pratt. Areas farther to
the north could see 1-2 inches of snow through the morning hours
before the snow tapers off from north to south later this morning
and afternoon. North to northeast winds will also be gusty at
times which could cause some areas of blowing and drifting snow. Will
keep the current Winter Weather Advisory intact.

The snow will be ending by later this afternoon as the upper
trough continues southeast over the Central Plains. With clearing skies
tonight and decreasing winds, we should see overnight lows
dropping into the single digits and lower teens.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 418 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

Broad northwesterly flow aloft across the plains states will result
from amplified West Coast ridging expected to develop heading into
he weekend. This pattern will relegate periodic snow producing waves
tot he northern plains and upper Midwest around Friday and again on
Sunday and Monday, while maintaining dry conditions across western
Kansas with prevailing west or southwest surface flow. This pattern
will support a gradual warming trend back into the upper 50s and
60s. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) indicate another broad upper wave moving
through the area again around the Sunday timeframe, however the
whole system is quite moisture starved. Additionally, the models seem
to be favoring an upper level split flow pattern heading into middle
week, which will promote several days of dry conditions will normal
to above normal temperatures . The Sunday through Wednesday period is
well advertised into the 60s by the GFS MOS, which cold easily
translate into 70 degree weather on the more favorable dry downslope
day of the period. In the meantime, for the weekend we used the bias
corrected European model (ecmwf) for the temperatures forecast as it has a better
recent track record in the medium range while also using the model
blend for overnight lows.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1100 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

MVFR flight conditions/ceilings for kgck/kddc will improve to VFR by the
afternoon. Khys will continue at VFR through taf period. North/NE winds
10-15 knots becoming SW 5-10 knots by 12z.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 27 8 42 20 / 80 10 0 0
gck 27 7 42 19 / 70 10 0 0
eha 24 12 43 21 / 60 10 0 0
lbl 26 10 43 21 / 80 10 0 0
hys 32 6 42 21 / 40 0 0 0
p28 29 11 41 20 / 80 10 0 0


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...gerard
long term...Russell

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