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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1202 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014

..update to aviation...

issued at 932 am CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014

WV imagery and 12z upper air analysis indicate a strong upper
level shortwave trough lifting northward across the northern
plains. Meanwhile, a secondary shortwave is digging southeast
across the Pacific northwest. A small, but strong +90kt upper
level jet core is lifting northeast across southeastern New Mexico
into the Texas Panhandle. Near the surface, a Lee side trough of
low pressure is anchored near and along the Kansas/Colorado
border. A modest amount of moisture remains across central and
southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s(f) with
near 60f in south central Kansas.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 123 am CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014

Models were in good agreement this morning with a negatively
tilted upper level trough lifting from eastern Colorado at 00z
Tuesday into Nebraska by 12z Tuesday. Any lingering convection in
the Kinsley, Stafford, Pratt or even Medicine Lodge area is
expected to end between 15z and 18z based on latest hrrr and rap.
Will continue to monitor the ongoing early morning convection and
adjust timing as needed. Temperatures today will be slightly
cooler than yesterday across north central and portions of far
western Kansas given the 850mb temperature trends from 00z Tuesday
to 00z Wednesday. Further east/southeast NAM model soundings
continue to support afternoon highs in the low to middle 80s.

Another upper level disturbance is forecast to move from eastern
Oregon into the central rockies by late day which still looks
reasonable given the latest water vapor loop. As this next upper
level disturbance crosses western Kansas tonight there will be a
chance for scattered thunderstorms along and east of a surface
trough axis which will extend from roughly Hays to Meade. East of
this axis late today the surface dew points will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s, cape values will range from 1000 to 1500 j/kg,
and 0-6km shear is forecast to be 30 to 35 knots at 21z Tuesday
and 00z Wednesday. Given this if storms do develop late today a
few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Main hazard
at this time will be wind gusts up to 60 miles per hour and hail up to the
size of quarters. Given the timing of the next upper level trough
precipitation should move east of the area between midnight and 3
am. A cold front drop south into western Kansas after midnight
which will result in lows falling back into the 50 to 55 degree
range behind this front. South/southeast of this boundary patch
fog will be possible given light southeast winds and temperatures
bottoming out in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 245 am CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014

An upper level long wave trough will be centered above The
Rockies Wednesday into Thursday with an upper level shortwave
moving from the inter-mountain west Wednesday, through the central
and northern rockies Wednesday night, then through the northern
and Central Plains on Thursday. An area of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across the forecast area as this system
approaches Wednesday with increasing cloudiness in the afternoon.
A chance of thunderstorms will be possible first across west
central Kansas in the afternoon as moisture wraps around the
aforementioned low. Additional thunderstorms will be possible
across central and south central Kansas in the late afternoon into
the evening where southerly flow and increased moisture will be
observed. A few of these storms may become strong to severe in
this area with hail and strong winds being the main concern.
Thunderstorm chances spread across the remainder of the forecast
area Wednesday night with the best chance located across northern
and west central Kansas. A strong cold front is then expected to
move through the County Warning Area after midnight shifting winds to more of a
northerly direction. Precipitation chances end from west to east
Thursday morning with decreasing cloudiness throughout the day.
Mostly clear skies are forecasted Thursday night with winds
shifting to the northwest. As for temperatures, highs Wednesday
are expected to range form the middle 70s across west central Kansas
to middle 80s across south central Kansas. Lows Wednesday night are
anticipated to range from the upper 40s across west central Kansas
to around 60 degrees across south central Kansas. Cooler
temperatures will be felt Thursday with highs ranging from the
upper 60s across the I-70 corridor to lower 70s across the Kansas/OK
border. Lows Thursday night are forecasted to range from the lower
40s across west central Kansas to around 50 degrees across south
central Kansas.

A drier weather pattern is in store for the remainder of the
forecast period as the upper level long wave trough moves into the
eastern United States and an upper level ridge builds across the
western United States. This will place western Kansas under
northwest flow aloft suppressing any activity from developing.
Highs will generally be in the lower 70s Friday increasing to the
lower 80s Saturday through Monday. Lows will start out in the middle
to upper 40s Saturday morning increasing into the lower 50s Sunday
through Tuesday morning.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1200 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites through early
Wednesday morning. Light southerly winds early this afternoon will
become more light and variable this evening as a surface trough of
low pressure near the Colorado border edges slowly eastward across
western Kansas.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 84 57 81 54 / 40 30 20 30
gck 82 54 79 51 / 10 10 20 50
eha 80 51 79 50 / 10 10 10 30
lbl 84 53 81 53 / 30 10 10 20
hys 81 58 78 53 / 40 30 30 50
p28 85 62 86 60 / 40 30 20 30


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...burgert
long term...hovorka_42

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