Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
202 am CDT Wednesday may 6 2015

..updated long term section...

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 325 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

A shortwave trough over eastern New Mexico early this afternoon
will progress northeastward across southwest Kansas by Wednesday
morning and into northern Kansas by Wednesday afternoon. Deep
moisture and lift was resulting in widespread mainly light
rainfall this afternoon. As this system progresses northeastward,
the steadier rainfall will taper off from southwest to northeast
tonight. Some clearing over the panhandles late this afternoon may
allow high enough instability for a few thunderstorms in far
southwestern Kansas this evening. Due to limited cape, these are
not expected to be severe. Temperatures are not expected to drop
much tonight due to cloud cover, with readings in the middle to high
50s along the Colorado border, and upper 50s to lower 60s at Hays
and Pratt.

Middle to high level cloud will clear by Wednesday afternoon in the
wake of the shortwave trough. The associated cold front is not
expected to drift into western Kansas until late Wednesday night.
Breaks in the clouds by afternoon should result in good surface
heating. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of
a dryline (most likely near or east of Dodge city) and then
progress eastward. Therefore, places such as Pratt, Larned,
Stafford and Hays have a chance of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. These storms could be severe; but the limiting
factor will be the weak upper level winds. Hail up to golfball
size is possible with the strongest storms. Temperatures will warm
nicely into the upper 70s and lower 80s for locations behind the
dryline, with middle to upper 70s farther east and north.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 201 am CDT Wednesday may 6 2015

An upper level low is prognosticated to move down into the Desert
Southwest Thursday into Friday then eject northeastward across The
Four Corners region and central rockies Saturday before moving
into the northern plains Sunday into Monday. Weak shortwaves will
spin around the periphery of this low Thursday into Friday and
into the Central High plains. This will allow an area of low
pressure at the surface to continue across eastern Colorado and
western Kansas with an associated frontal boundary extending
eastward across parts of Kansas. A dryline will extend southward
across western Kansas during the afternoon periods then retrograde
back west in the evening. The aforementioned dryline and frontal
boundary will be the main Focal Point where storms are expected to
from in the afternoon into evening then spread across the
remainder of the area overnight. The atmosphere will be moderately
unstable during the afternoon periods with ample shear in the low
to middle levels of the atmosphere. Ergo, any storms that do form
during the afternoon hours will have the potential to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
A few tornadoes may also be possible, mainly along the frontal
boundary. The upper level low moves closer to the County Warning Area Saturday
with mostly cloudy skies and thunderstorms possible throughout the
day. Once again, a few of these thunderstorms may become severe
with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes being the
main concern. A cold front will then sweep across western Kansas
Sunday with precipitation chances ending from west to east along
with decreasing cloudiness. The beginning of next week looks dry
as upper level ridging amplifies across The Rockies with a dome of
high pressure building over the plains at the surface.

As for temperatures, highs Thursday are prognosticated to be around 80
degrees then range from the upper 60s across west central Kansas
to upper 70s along the Kansas/OK border Friday. Lows Thursday and
Friday night look to range from around 50 degrees across west
central Kansas to around 60 degrees across south central Kansas.
Highs will generally be around 70 degrees Saturday with lows
ranging from the lower 40s along the Kansas/Colorado border to upper 50s
across south central Kansas Saturday night. Highs Sunday are
forecasted to range from the lower 60s across west central Kansas
where the cold front is expected to move through the area early to
upper 70s across south central Kansas where the cold front isn't
anticipated to move through until later in the day. Lows Sunday
night look to range from around 40 degrees along the Kansas/Colorado border
to upper 40s across south central Kansas. Highs Monday look to
generally be in the 60s then rebound into the lower 70s Tuesday.
Lows will generally be in the middle 40s Monday night.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1241 am CDT Wednesday may 6 2015

Low stratus with ceilings/visibility in the IFR to intermittent
LIFR category will be found at ddc, gck, and hys through the night
and into the first few hours Post sunrise Wednesday. The ceiling
will begin to scatter out from west to east around 15z with
widespread VFR developing in the 15-18z time frame...especially at
gck and ddc. South to southeast winds will prevail with speeds
increasing to 18 to 23 knots sustained by midday to early
afternoon. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will likely
develop along a dryline, affecting hys terminal gck and
ddc will likely remain too far west.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 81 59 80 57 / 20 10 40 60
gck 81 53 79 54 / 20 10 20 50
eha 81 51 79 51 / 10 10 20 30
lbl 83 54 81 56 / 10 10 40 40
hys 78 58 79 55 / 50 50 30 60
p28 79 63 80 60 / 50 50 40 70


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Finch
long term...hovorka_42

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations