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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
247 am CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

..updated short term...

issued at 243 am CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Radar estimates of up to around 3 inches fell over a limited
portion of southeast Ellis County where storm were most numerous
last evening. This activity has peeled off to the east of our area
leaving the area west of Highway 183 clear. The surface cold front
has pushed southward through the forecast area as indicated by metar
wind and temperature data. Light north-northeast winds were observed
over most of the area behind the boundary with surface dew points
still hovering in the low 60's in this Post frontal airmass.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 243 am CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Temperatures and then any convective chances for tonight are the main
challenges in this short term. Much cooler conditions are expected
this afternoon with highs probably mainly in the 80s behind the
surface boundary that will leave winds slowly turning easterly with
time through the afternoon. Slightly warmer highs around 90 degrees
could be found farther south along the Kansas/OK line. An upper westerly
jet will continue moving through the plains while a surface low
becomes established somewhere near Elkhart by late today. A couple
of the convective allowing models indicate the stationary front
lifting back northward as a warm front into this evening, and a
narrow band of convection oriented along or just north of the
surface feature. The same models show a middle level barocliniczone/700
mb front and the right rear quadrant of the upperjet in the
vicinity. A low level jet may also aid some convective
development. Widespread severe weather does not appear likely
with this pattern, however some locally heavy rain and frequent
lightning would be likely. This activity would mainly be regulated
to the eastern and southern and southeastern sections of the
forecast area.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 237 PM CDT sun Aug 31 2014

By Monday evening the surface boundary will extend from western
Oklahoma, across central Kansas, into northwest Missouri as
another upper level trough crosses the Central Plains. Given the
improving upper level dynamics and low level moisture lift north
of this surface boundary from warm air advection/isentropic lift
there will be improving chances for precipitation Monday night,
especially across south central Kansas.

On Tuesday a westerly downslope flow will begin to develop across
the Central High plains as the upper level trough moves into the
middle Mississippi Valley. Highs on Tuesday will only be slightly
warmer than those expected on Monday based on 850mb temperature
trends from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday. Temperatures are then
expected to climb back well into the 90s middle week as an area of
low pressure at the surface deepens over eastern Colorado and the
850mb temperature trends indicate a 5 to near 9c warm up in the
850mb temperatures from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. This
continues to support highs climb back into the middle to possibly the
upper 90s across western Kansas. As a westerly flow develops
across the Central Plains an upper level low/trough will move out
of the eastern Pacific and across the Pacific northwest Tuesday
and Wednesday. By late week an upper level disturbance will move
out into the northern plains as a cold front will move south
towards southwest Kansas. This will bring back a chance for
thunderstorms to much of the western Kansas Friday and Saturday
along with more seasonal temperatures.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 120 am CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Convection was downtrending over the last hour around the hys
terminal. This trend should contine leaving VFR conditions across
the area with light northerly winds turning eastelry over the
remainder of the taf period.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 87 65 89 68 / 10 30 20 10
gck 86 63 88 67 / 10 20 20 0
eha 89 63 90 66 / 0 10 10 0
lbl 90 64 91 69 / 0 20 10 10
hys 83 63 88 66 / 10 20 10 10
p28 90 70 93 71 / 10 50 40 20


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Russell
long term...burgert

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