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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
600 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

..update to aviation...

issued at 525 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

The inherited hourly apparent temperature grids have values at heat
advisory criteria. For consistency, have issued a heat advisory for
tomorrow for Stafford, Pratt, and Barber counties. Dewpoints are expected
to mix to lower values farther west, so meeting heat advisory criteria
(105f apparent temp) looks more unlikely. Farther north towards Hays,
dewpoints are expected to mix out as well in the south-southwest/SW downslope plume,
but this will have to be watched by the upcoming mid shift.


Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 337 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

A strong shortwave trough progressing from the Pacific northwest
into southwestern Canada today will help push a weak cold front
into western Kansas by Friday afternoon. Ahead of the front, a
surface trough over the Central Plains and resultant 15 kt
southwesterly winds will lead to a warm night, with lows mainly
in the 70s. There is a small chance of thunderstorms along the
front from Dodge City north and west by mid-afternoon Friday and
persisting into the evening. Given the high dewpoint depressions,
strong wind gusts may accompany the storms. Temperatures ought to
be warmer Friday given the surface winds veering to southwest,
allowing for low level drying progressing farther east.
Temperatures in central Kansas near Interstate 70 will depend on
the location of the front, with Hays reaching anywhere from 99 to
105f. South of the front, highs should warm nicely. The NAM 2m
temps at 21z show 102-106f readings, but these are probably a few
degrees too warm since this model has displayed a warm bias all
Summer due to all of the wetness and vegetation. Most places ought
to reach to between 99f and 103f before cloud cover increases in
association with the afternoon thunderstorms.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 246 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Saturday night will still be warm as the southerly flow will exist
across our southern zones, and an east flow at the surface will
exist across the northern half. Saturday afternoon surface
temperatures will rise to the 100f degree mark in the Hays to
Syracuse areas, the 101 to 102f range in the Larned to Dodge City to
Elkhart areas, and the 102 to 103f range in the Liberal to
Medicine Lodge areas. A Lee side trough is sure to form and move
into extreme western Kansas during Saturday afternoon. There will
be 20 percent chances for thunderstorms in our western 1 tier of
counties next to the Colorado border Saturday afternoon and evening.
Overnight Saturday night, the surface trough will get pushed a
little farther east, and an upper level wave will swoop through in
the northwest flow aloft. Pops in the west along the Colorado
border will increase to 30 to 40 percent Saturday night, with
lower 20 percent pops in our eastern counties. With clouds and
precipitation around, highs on Sunday will lower into the 90s, with near
90f degrees in the I-70 corridor, and perhaps mid 90s in the
Coldwater and Pratt areas. Sunday should still be warm enough at
the surface to generate some scattered storms, especially in the
west near Syracuse and Elkhart, close to the surface trough.

On Monday, the upper high pressure will be over West Texas, with a
well established northwest flow aloft across the plains. A warm
front will nudge north into our southwestern counties, and there
will be 20 to 30 percent chances for afternoon thunderstorms Monday.
Monday should start a cooling trend, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Tuesday will see another weak cold front come south
through the Western Plains, and highs on Tuesday should only reach
near 81f degrees in our north and range to the 87f degrees in the
Elkhart area. Wednesday may the coolest day of the week, as the
cold air mass will be sinking south through the plains. A
whopping 81f degrees is forecast a high on Wednesday for Dodge
City! The upper high pressure will begin building back to the
northeast on Thursday, and another warm up may show a short lived

Minimum temperatures will go through a similar cool down, but
generally be in the mid 60s through the extended forecast.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 600 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

VFR conditions expected through taf pd. There could be some cirriform
blow off from convection farther upstream through the overnight. Additional
convection is possible tomorrow evening, however, confidence is not
high enough to put cb/tsra/vcts groups in for now. Will defer to later
taf issuances since we are obviously outside the 6 hr critical taf
pd and towards the end of the 24 hour regular pd. Should be pretty isolated
though. Southerly winds veering southwesterly and eventually northwest/northerly
by tomorrow afternoon. Magnitudes 12-25 kt.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 74 101 73 101 / 10 20 20 10
gck 75 101 71 100 / 0 20 20 10
eha 74 102 71 100 / 10 20 20 20
lbl 74 103 72 102 / 0 20 20 10
hys 76 102 72 100 / 10 20 20 10
p28 72 104 75 102 / 0 10 10 10


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ksz066-081-090.



short term...Finch
long term...Burke

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