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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
417 am CDT sun Aug 31 2014

..updated long term section...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 333 am CDT sun Aug 31 2014

The hrrr was indicating a broken line of relatively light
reflectivity moving eastward from the aforementioned development
zone into central Kansas by around 10-12 UTC. This solution was followed
with basically low probability of precipitation below 20 percent. The more significant issue
for the day will be a late day or evening severe weather threat. The
nmm and arw model runs developed a qlcs type bowing segment across
northern KS, along and ahead of a cold front/dryline intersection
over northern Kansas. Farther south, over our area, any convection in
these solutions could be generally more discreet and more high based
(hail and wind threats possible) with sufficient shear for
supercells. However, it is possible outflows/cold pools could force
more widespread development farther bringing more of our area
into a severe weather threat.

Surface winds will be more breezy ahead of the dryline this
afternoon. Models suggest 15 to 20 knots sustained winds will be
common with gusts in to just under 30 knots. Yesterday's highs of
low 90s to middle 90s in the southwest sections are a reasonable tell
for highs today. The latest short term consensus supports middle 90s
to near 100 degrees in the SW given the combination of slightly
drier air and better downslope. With the frontal boundary and
potential moist boundary layer outflow across the area tonight, a
large gradient of around 20 degrees could exist for overnight lows
from middle 50's out west to middle 70s in the Pratt Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge area setting an early mild low just after

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 414 am CDT sun Aug 31 2014

The front following tonights storm system will reach the Texas
Panhandle and adjacent western Oklahoma by late Monday/Monday night.
The daytime hours Monday will be fairly tranquil as subsidence will
prevail in the wake of the departing system. Modest temperatures in
the 80s are expected. The front will stall out Monday night and we
will find ourselves in the right entrance region of an upper
tropospheric jet. This will enhance frontogenesis in the 900-800mb
layer, supporting nocturnal thunderstorms once the low level jet
develops. The most favorable location for Monday night/early Tuesday
storms will be across south central Kansas, which is where we will
have the highest chance probability of precipitation (around 40 percent). This frontal zone
will not move Tuesday, and we will need to carry some chance probability of precipitation
through the day across south central Kansas. Daytime temperatures
will be at or just slightly above average for the first part of
September (mid to upper 80s as a rule). The front will eventually
dissolve by late Tuesday night and especially by Wednesday, as the
low level flow field begins to respond to lower pressure much
farther north where the polar jet will be located. The next storm
system middle-week will be much farther north with weak zonal flow
across Colorado and Kansas for the most part. This will lead to
warmer temperatures and drier weather. Wednesday and Thursday
continue to look like the hottest days next week with afternoon
highs in the 95-100f range for much of western and southern Kansas.
The northern polar jet storm system that was mentioned will move
east across the northern Great Plains/adjacent Canadian prairies
late in the week, ushering in some much cooler temperatures across
the northern plains. This airmass will likely reach Kansas by end of
week and into the weekend. There appears to be a fairly strong
signal of cooler/wetter weather September 6-8 time frame.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

A very small cluster of gradually weakening thunderstorms near
Garden City earlier were moving to the south of the ddc terminal and
expected to not have a direct impact. However, elevated warm
advection showers and probably isolated thunderstorms may move
through the area between 6 and 10 z. Any thunderstorms should be too
few and far between to consider for even a tempo group at this time.
Slightly more breezy conditions are expected Sunday afternoon ahead
of a surface dryline. These more breezy conditions are expected from
ddc to hys. Late afternoon to evening deep moist convection may
develop anywhere along the dryline or and incoming cold front
north of Garden City in the evening, possibly posing a low
probability severe threat with the best chances near the hys


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 98 65 87 65 / 30 50 10 30
gck 99 62 87 63 / 40 50 10 20
eha 100 62 91 63 / 10 10 10 10
lbl 102 65 91 64 / 20 20 10 20
hys 96 64 84 63 / 50 80 20 20
p28 99 71 90 70 / 10 20 20 50


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Russell
long term...umscheid

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