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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
453 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

..updated for aviation discussion...

issued at 340 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

A potent upper level storm system will slowly move eastward
from The Rockies into the Central Plains through Monday. A
cold front was charging southward through western Kansas this
morning well ahead of the upper level trough. Abundant low level
moisture was in place across the Southern Plains. A sloping
frontal surface will be in place, along with the abundant moisture
so that periods of winter weather are possible through Monday.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 340 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Rain will develop this morning and change to freezing rain from
northwest to southeast as temperatures drop. The temperature at
Dodge City could be down to 32f by 15z. The heaviest ice
accumulations are expected in south central Kansas tonight where
an Ice Storm Warning was issued. The low level cold layer will
become cold enough for sleet across western late this afternoon
and then across south central Kansas by Friday. Precipitation will
change to snow over western Kansas on Friday. Areas of freezing
drizzle are also possible tonight over western Kansas during
periods when the mid levels aren't close to saturation. But once
the cold layer becomes deeper then the freezing drizzle would
change to light snow. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 20s
with highs in the mid to high 20s on Friday.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 340 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Periods of winter weather will persist into Saturday and Sunday as
the upper level trough slowly approaches the plains in the
presence of low level cold air and abundant low to mid level
moisture. Temperatures will remain cold with highs in the 20s and
30s and lows in the upper teens and lower 20s. After the upper
level trough progresses into the central and eastern United
States by Monday night into midweek, fair weather will return to
western Kansas along with some moderation in temperatures.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 448 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Winds will be north at 15 kts through the period in the wake of a
cold front. Freezing rain will develop this morning and persist
into the afternoon. Sleet, freezing rain and freezing drizzle are
all possible tonight as low to mid level warm advection persists
above the low level cold air. The precipitation may change to snow
by the end of the period.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 34 23 25 22 / 100 90 90 60
gck 31 21 24 18 / 90 90 70 40
eha 31 21 22 16 / 80 90 70 50
lbl 33 22 25 19 / 100 100 80 70
hys 32 22 25 21 / 90 70 40 30
p28 45 26 28 26 / 100 90 90 70


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Friday for



short term...Finch
long term...Finch

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