Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
357 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015
..updated long term discussion...
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 311 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015
The 00z 500 millibar analysis showed a highly amplified upper flow
pattern over central North America. A strong ridge extended from
southwest Texas into British Columbia while a deep trough was over
the eastern Continental U.S.. strong northwesterly flow aloft extended from the
northern plains through the middle Mississippi Valley into the deep
south. Farther west, a closed upper low was lifting northward into
California. A weak surface pressure pattern was noted over the
Central High plains.
The upper level ridge will flatten out somewhat as the California
upper low moves over the top of the ridge and phases with another
shortwave trough approaching British Columbia. One more warm day is
in store for central and southwest Kansas. Warm temperatures off the
surface will mix down as daytime heating increases. 850 millibar
temperatures will be some 3-4 degrees celsius this afternoon than
Monday. We should see high temperatures in the middle and upper 70s
across the area and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few locations
reach 80 degrees. Winds will start out fairly light from the west
but should increase somewhat from the southwest this afternoon as a
Lee side low pressure trough begins to develop.
Tonight should be fairly mild with temperatures in the upper 30s.
South central Kansas should see lower 40s as southerly winds stay up
through the night.
Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 356 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015
The shortwave trough mentioned in the short term discussion will
progress across the plains on Wednesday, with the associated Pacific
cold front passing during the day. Despite the developing weak cold
advection by afternoon, highs will still reach well into the 60s. A
Canadian cold front will pass later Wednesday evening as this upper
trough passes off to the east.
By Thursday and Friday, upper level troughing will evolve over the
southwestern United States, centered over Southern California. Cool
surface high pressure in the wake of wednesday's system will be very
slow in progressing eastward and surface pressures will remain
fairly high into Friday. This will result in a persistence of
seasonably cool air despite the return of south winds. High
temperatures should be mainly in the 40s to near 50 Thursday and
Friday, after morning lows in the 30s and then 20s.
The upper level trough over Southern California will slowly progress
eastward through Friday night into Arizona before weakening and
shifting southward into Baja California by Saturday and Sunday. A northern
stream shortwave trough will also approach from the northwest later
Saturday, enhancing middle level frontogenesis. After this shortwave
trough passes to the east, colder air will progress into western
Kansas by Sunday. The bulk of the precipitation this weekend will be
ahead of the cold front in an airmass that is not that cold.
Therefore, there is some uncertainty in precipitation type as
temperatures in the lowest 2000 feet will probably be at or above
freezing. Therefore, rain or snow are possible from late Friday into
late Saturday night. Obviously given the uncertainty in
precipitation type, accumulations of snow are very uncertain.
Temperatures in the grids for Sunday are probably too warm as latest
Gem/European model (ecmwf) model fields suggest 20s/30s are more likely for highs.
Depending on snow cover, temperatures could conceivably fall into
the single digits by Monday morning.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1133 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015
VFR conditions will prevail through this taf period. Light west
winds will become southwesterly by midday Tuesday and could be
gusty to 20 knots at times, especially at Garden City and Dodge
issued at 311 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015
Another day of warm temperatures and low dewpoints will result in
relative humidity levels falling to around 15 to 20 percent over
west central and southwest Kansas. South to southwest winds will
increase into the 10 to 20 miles per hour range with some occasional gusts to
near 25 miles per hour. This will result in another day of elevated fire danger
but at this time it appears that red flag criteria will not be met.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 75 40 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
gck 76 38 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
eha 73 40 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 75 39 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
hys 77 39 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
p28 74 43 72 41 / 0 0 0 0