Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1225 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

..updated synopsis and short term sections...

issued at 1223 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

A potent upper level storm system will slowly move eastward from
The Rockies into the Central Plains through Monday. A cold front
has moved through western Kansas bringing strong northerly winds
behind it. Abundant low level moisture will be in place across the
Southern Plains. A sloping frontal surface will be in place, along
with the abundant moisture so that periods of winter weather are
possible through Monday.


Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 1223 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Scattered showers will affect western Kansas tonight into
tomorrows low to mid levels remain saturated. These showers will
generally be in the form of snow across west and west central
Kansas mixing with freezing rain and sleet farther east.
Precipitation will fall as freezing rain across south central
Kansas throughout the night as a warm tongue remains present just
off the surface. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies when
precipitation isn't falling. Strong winds from the north will
continue to bring cold air advection to the area with lows ranging
from the upper teens across far western and west central Kansas to
mid 20s across south central Kansas.

Precipitation should change all over to snow by tomorrow
afternoon with the exception of central and south central Kansas
where precipitation will mostly fall as freezing rain or
occasionally mixing with sleet. Once again, otherwise expect
mostly cloudy skies. Winds will generally be form a northerly
direction but with a slight decrease in wind speeds. Temperatures
tomorrow look to not move much tomorrow with highs in the 20s.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 340 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Periods of winter weather will persist into Saturday and Sunday as
the upper level trough slowly approaches the plains in the
presence of low level cold air and abundant low to mid level
moisture. Temperatures will remain cold with highs in the 20s and
30s and lows in the upper teens and lower 20s. After the upper
level trough progresses into the central and eastern United
States by Monday night into midweek, fair weather will return to
western Kansas along with some moderation in temperatures.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1202 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

A mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow will fall across the taf
sites this afternoon into this evening bringing IFR to LIFR
ceilings and visibilities. Strong northerly winds will also be
present throughout the day gusting to around 30 knots at times.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 23 24 22 27 / 90 70 60 40
gck 20 23 18 28 / 80 60 40 30
eha 18 22 16 30 / 90 70 50 30
lbl 22 23 19 29 / 90 80 70 40
hys 22 26 21 28 / 70 40 30 40
p28 26 27 26 30 / 90 90 70 60


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Friday for



short term...hovorka_42
long term...Finch

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations