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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
638 am CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

..updated aviation discussion...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 332 am CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Stratus in the 2000 to 3000 ft range will continue to spread
northward across the area through around 10 UTC. Clearing should be
most prevalent in the western counties and the best chance for
stratus lingering longer through the morning hours exists in the
central Kansas counties and cities line Saint John to Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge as indicated by the sref and mesoscale models. Fog
may locally & produce visibilities under a mile as light winds and
relatively low dew point depressions allow condensation on cloud
condensation nuclei. Beyond this morning, the dry air indicated on
the 00 UTC sounding coupled with a moderate pressure gradient will
promote surface mixing and breezy southerly winds between 15 and 18
UTC Friday. Winds will diminish after 01 UTC but remain well mixed
from a southerly direction, leading to mild overnight temperatures
mainly in the 50s and upper 40s.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 412 am CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

At the beginning of the period, an upper level ridge will be exiting
the Central Plains while an upper level trough, initially over the
Desert Southwest, approaches the central and Southern Plains. A
strong upper wave will be tracking east along the U.S./Canadian
border. As this northern wave moves out, it will push a cold front
down into west central and northwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. Low
level moist advection will be occurring ahead of the front which
will result in some destabilization during the day. Model soundings
indicate some mid level capping in place across much of southwest
and central Kansas so think that initially the best chances for
convection will be along the front. Have trimmed pops back across
southwest and south central Kansas during much of the day Saturday
with increasing pops over west central into central Kansas as the
afternoon progresses. Will continue to show increasing pops Saturday
night. Pops will be increasing across much of the area on Sunday
into Sunday evening as the main upper wave moves out. The
precipitation chances will be diminishing Sunday night as the wave
moves past. Will keep a slight chance for showers going Monday
morning over south central Kansas as the wave moves out of that

Have added a slight chance for thunderstorms to areas along and
north of highways 50 and 156 on Tuesday night as some mid level warm
advection could produce some elevated showers/thunderstorms.

The models continue to show another strong wave approaching the
Central Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is coming into a little better
agreement with the European model (ecmwf) with the timing of this wave although it
remains a little more positively tilted. The models show a dryline
developing across western Kansas during the day which could be the
focus for some late afternoon thunderstorms.

Behind the dryline, deep mixing of southwesterly flow aloft could
produce dry windy conditions at the surface leading to potential red
flag conditions.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 638 am CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Occasional MVFR ceilings will be possible at Dodge City through
14z as low clouds continue to move up from western Oklahoma. VFR
conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period. Look
for southerly winds to increase to 20 to 30 knots as a surface low
pressure trough develops in the Lee of The Rockies today.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 72 48 78 55 / 0 0 10 40
gck 74 51 78 53 / 0 0 20 30
eha 76 52 77 50 / 0 0 20 20
lbl 76 49 78 52 / 0 0 10 20
hys 73 50 80 55 / 0 0 20 50
p28 72 47 80 56 / 0 0 10 40


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Russell
long term...gerard