Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
123 am CDT Monday Apr 27 2015
..updated short term discussion...
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 122 am CDT Monday Apr 27 2015
Several upper level waves will rotate around an upper low which
will move east across western Oklahoma today. As one of these
disturbances crosses southwest Kansas later today the
precipitation chances will improve across south central and
portions of southwest Kansas. At this time the area more favorable
for this precipitation will be south of a Larned to Dodge City to
Liberal line based on where the 700mb to 500mb frontogenesis will
be located along with the 850mb warm air advection and isentropic
lift. Prior to this isentropic downglide appears to be present
across western Kansas. Given where the better downglide will be
early this morning have lowered the chances for measurable
precipitation, especially north and west of Dodge City early
As for temperatures today...given some breaks of sun being
possible by late day north of Dodge City will stay close to the
latest guidance given the 850mb temperatures at 00z Tuesday.
Further south where more clouds are likely along with a improving
chances for precipitation will undercut guidance favoring the
cooler 2m NAM temperatures.
Skies will begin to clear from northwest to southeast tonight as
the upper low continues to move east across Oklahoma. Evening
convection in south central Kansas will end between 06z and 12z
Tuesday. How far temperatures will fall tonight will depend on how
quickly skies clear. At this time based on the current clearing
trend the temperatures tonight are expected to fall back into the
middle 30s across west central Kansas by 12z Tuesday. Upper 30s to
lower 40s are expected further east.
Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 238 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015
For Monday night and Tuesday, the upper low and attendant rain
showers will be moving east and south of western Kansas. Will
maintain a small chance for lingering showers south and southeast of
Dodge City on Monday night into early Tuesday as model trends
continue with lesser chances over western Kansas. The GFS is the
farthest north with precip, while the other models have it more
south. Lows Monday night will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Highs will be in the middle to upper 60s.
For the period of Wednesday into Friday, a dry period is forecast as
upper level ridging is in control. Overnight lows will be mainly in
the 40s Wednesday morning and Thursday morning, then warm to around
50 on Friday morning. Daytime highs warm from the low to middle 70s on
Wednesday and Thursday, and the upper 70s on Friday.
For the next weekend period, increasing chances for thunderstorms
are in the forecast into Sunday ahead of a shortwave trough, as Gulf
moisture returns. Lows will be mild an in the 50s, with daytime
highs around 80.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1232 am CDT Monday Apr 27 2015
00z NAM bufr soundings, hrrr and rap all appear to be in decent
agreement with IFR ceilings at gck gradually improving into the
MVFR category by 09z. Low MVFR ceilings at ddc will also be
improving into the 2000 to 3000ft above ground level range by 12z Monday as
isentropic downglide and drier air develops in the lower levels.
Fog potential will also on the decrease but patchy of fog may
still reduce visibilities at times around daybreak to 2-4 miles.
Northeast winds will gradually increase into the 15 to 20 knot
range by 12z Monday and then continue to increase to around
20 knots by early Monday afternoon. At this time the better
precipitation chances will in the ddc and gck areas between 06z
and 12z Monday. After 12z Monday the better forcing will shift
south of these terminals. The possible exception will be in the
ddc area where a few showers may be possible later in the day.
Ceilings at all three taf sites will slowly improve during the
day. Ddc and gck is expected to climb into the VFR category
between 18z and 21z Monday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 54 38 68 42 / 70 30 10 10
gck 55 35 68 41 / 50 10 10 10
eha 51 37 65 40 / 90 10 0 0
lbl 49 39 67 41 / 90 40 10 10
hys 60 40 68 42 / 10 10 10 10
p28 55 42 66 43 / 90 50 10 10