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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
657 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014

..updated for aviation...

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 342 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014

Cold front which moved south during the day lead to low stratus and
some drizzle across southwest and west central Kansas. This kept
temperatures nearly steady in the lower to middle 60s for much of the
forecast area...especially along the Highway 50 and 54 corridor. As
of 2000 UTC, ddc was still below 1000 feet overcast, but the drizzle
had ceased. A west-northwest flow pattern will become established
tonight into Tuesday across the plains, with a Lee trough
redeveloping...resulting in the frontal zone dissolving as low level
winds veer around to the east then southeast poleward of the front.
Low stratus will continue through the night, which will keep
temperatures from dropping too much, especially along/south of the
Arkansas River. The exception would be along I-70 where some
radiational cooling will help allow temperatures fall to around 50
for a low. For the day Tuesday, the stratus layer will hang tough
much of the day, but will scatter out from west to east. North and
east of roughly WaKeeney to Ness City to Larned to Stafford, the low
stratus will remain overcast to broken through the afternoon hours,
and as a result, temperatures will only warm into the lower to middle
70s by middle to late afternoon. Middle 80s are forecast along the
Colorado border where direct insolation is expected by middle to late
morning and the lower troposphere at or below 2000 feet above ground level continues to

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 342 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014

The extended period can be characterized by warming conditions
through the beginning of the weekend with some very small chance of
precipitation around Tuesday night or Wednesday, but better chances
by Friday night or Saturday.

A mean 582 dm 500 mb height ridge will build across the Central
Plains by midweek. With northwest flow across the area in the
meantime, subsidence building the 850 high off to the southeast, a
weak boundary layer moisture transport signal develops across
central Kansas by a most of the models. The models are mixed at how
robust they are suggesting precipitation development. Some
frontogenesis is present by very weak middle level deformation field
and the signal suggests precipitation to be more of an eastern
Kansas or Nebraska event. However as the potential precipitation
pattern matures, small probability of precipitation were added by Wednesday night mainly
east of Highway 183.

A better chance for precipitation is in the Saturday timeframe. A
West Coast trough will become reinforced aiding the spread of
residual tropical moisture into the Central Plains region from a
decaying tropical disturbance across Mexico. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are
both showing a decent pattern for rain and scattered thunderstorms
due to increasing middle level vorticity across the Central High
plains. Along with the increased middle level moisture, overcast
conditions should develop driving daytime temperatures downward
back into the 70s by the Monday if not earlier.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 648 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014

MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR between 08-12z with some areas of fog
at kgck and kddc under light northeast to light and variable
winds. At khys IFR ceilings are forecast by 09-12z. Ceilings should
improve to VFR after 18z as south to southwest winds increase
behind a surface ridge of high pressure.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 58 78 64 89 / 10 10 10 10
gck 57 82 61 89 / 10 10 0 10
eha 58 86 62 89 / 10 10 0 0
lbl 60 83 63 90 / 10 10 0 0
hys 51 73 61 84 / 10 10 10 10
p28 61 79 66 89 / 10 10 10 10


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...umscheid
long term...Russell

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