Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1256 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015
..updated aviation section...
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 1250 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015
Weak northwesterly flow aloft continues across the area today and
tonight with a trough of low pressure in the Lee of The Rockies.
Light south to southeasterly winds will become more southerly at 10
to 15 miles per hour this afternoon, then light southeasterly again late this
afternoon into the evening. Scattered thunderstorms near Elkhart to
Hugoton will gradually weaken next few hours, with some possible
development again in the late morning and afternoon near the
Oklahoma border. Some light ground fog may again develop early this
morning if cirrus cloudiness is not as heavy. Models show increasing
cirrus cloudiness especially west of Dodge City today into tonight.
Highs today will be a little warmer and in the low to middle 90s. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 60s to around 70.
Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 225 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015
For Monday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from The Rockies
and into the Central Plains, then exit into central Kansas by
Tuesday morning. Will continue to carry around 50 probability of precipitation mainly after
7 PM Monday with a possible mesoscale convective system forming. New NAM has little to
nothing and is odd model out. Severe chances do not look that great,
but maybe some marginal severe with small hail, heavy rainfall, and
wind gusts to less than 50 miles per hour. Highs on Monday will be around 90.
For Tuesday, some lingering storms will be exciting the area mainly
east of Dodge City in the morning as the short wave moves east.
Highs on Tuesday will be around 90.
For the period of Wednesday into Saturday, upper level warm ridging
returns to the Central Plains followed by another northern plains
shortwave Friday and Saturday. Highs will warm into the low to middle
90s on Wednesday and Thursday, then cool into the upper 80s Friday
and Saturday. The chances for measurable rainfall look low at this
time through the period.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1253 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015
VFR conditions will continue through this taf period. Light
southerly winds are expected to continue as well given a weak
surface pressure gradient. Strong convection is likely by early
Monday evening, however this is well outside the forecast timing
of this terminal period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 93 69 91 67 / 10 10 10 50
gck 93 67 89 66 / 10 10 20 50
eha 91 68 88 64 / 20 20 40 50
lbl 93 69 89 67 / 10 20 40 50
hys 96 69 94 68 / 0 10 10 50
p28 93 71 93 70 / 10 10 10 50