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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
426 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2014

..updated long term section...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 338 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2014

A dry and generally less active weather day is in store for this
afternoon as the upper system continues to track east removing
any forcing mechanisms for dynamically aided convective
initiation. The surface will also generally see a lack of
surface/moisture convergence to support deep moist convection.
Light north winds will persist until afternoon when light and
variable conditions may occur following the NAM surface wind
forecast. Clouds could be slow to exit the eastern counties, but
a rapid rebound in temperature should occur once insolation is
unimpeded. Middle 80s are the most plausible range for most of the
area this afternoon, although slightly cooler temperatures around
80 degrees may be found out toward the Colorado line where
temperature tendency is not as positive. Winds will slacken and
become light and variable, even calm at times overnight.
Subsidence aloft should promote mainly clear skies other than
residual high level clouds. It is plausible temperatures could
fall into the upper 50s across the slightly drier boundary layer
in the west, where dew points will be decreasing with time.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 426 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2014

The primary forecast interest regarding active sensible weather is
the late Sunday/Sunday night time frame. Saturday and Saturday night
look fairly benign in between storm systems, but surface
cyclogenesis will ramp up over eastern Colorado and adjacent far
southwest Kansas Sunday as an 80-95 knot 250mb jet noses into The
Rockies. It still looks like a formidable lower tropospheric
downslope plume of hot air will advance northeast about as far as a
Liberal to Garden City line. A dryline will set up somewhere close
to this line as well with a dryline-front intersection somewhere
across west-central Kansas. The dryline-front intersection will be
the focus for robust surface-based thunderstorm development after
2100 UTC. There will be adequate cape/shear combination to support
severe storms and even supercells, particularly along/ahead of the
dryline. The NAM is most aggressive in dryline convection with the
GFS showing much less of a signal along the dryline. Capping will
certainly be a concern, which will limit southward development of
storms, but it is still fairly unclear how far south that will be.
We will continue with highest probability of precipitation across the northeastern half of
the forecast area (mainly east of Highway 283 and north of the
Arkansas river). The front will move south late Sunday night into
Monday, and secondary shortwave trough will swing around the base of
the longwave trough Monday night. This will aid in development of
another round of convection Monday night along a zone of 700mb
frontogenesis. 30 to 40 probability of precipitation will be in the forecast for much of
southwest, west-central, and south-central Kansas (slight chance 20
or lower across far southwest kansas). An upper level high will
build across the Southern Plains with influence into Kansas going
into Wednesday and Thursday with the primary polar jet shifting well
to the north from Nevada-Idaho into the northern Dakotas. This will
result in a drier forecast and a return to middle 90s for highs.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1258 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2014

Numerous showers and a few occasional lightning strikes will affect
the Hays terminal over the next one to possibly two hours as an
upper low moves through the High Plains region. Post frontal surface
winds will remain light and out of the north until at least middle
afternoon fridy at all terminal locations.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 87 61 92 70 / 0 10 10 10
gck 88 59 93 67 / 0 10 10 10
eha 88 61 93 66 / 0 10 10 10
lbl 90 61 93 70 / 0 10 10 10
hys 85 61 91 70 / 0 10 10 10
p28 90 66 92 71 / 0 10 10 10


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Russell
long term...umscheid

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