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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
657 am CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

..updated aviation section...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 243 am CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Temperatures and then any convective chances for tonight are the main
challenges in this short term. Much cooler conditions are expected
this afternoon with highs probably mainly in the 80s behind the
surface boundary that will leave winds slowly turning easterly with
time through the afternoon. Slightly warmer highs around 90 degrees
could be found farther south along the Kansas/OK line. An upper westerly
jet will continue moving through the plains while a surface low
becomes established somewhere near Elkhart by late today. A couple
of the convective allowing models indicate the stationary front
lifting back northward as a warm front into this evening, and a
narrow band of convection oriented along or just north of the
surface feature. The same models show a middle level baroclinic zone/700
mb front and the right rear quadrant of the upper jet in the
vicinity. A low level jet may also aid some convective
development. Widespread severe weather does not appear likely with
this pattern, however some locally heavy rain and frequent
lightning would be likely. This activity would mainly be regulated
to the eastern and southern and southeastern sections of the
forecast area.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 416 am CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

The forecast is fairly straight-forward through middle-week with flat
west-southwesterly flow across the central Continental U.S. And a return to
warm weather. Wednesday continues to look like the hottest day of
the week with a warm surge of air spreading northeast downsloping
off the higher terrain of New Mexico. We bumped up highs to close to
100f across the Oklahoma border areas like Liberal. A fairly strong
polar jet streak will be moving east across the northern plains
Thursday, leading to low level cold frontogenesis. The front should
reach western Kansas by Thursday, however not before we have one
more above-average day for temperatures again in the middle to perhaps
upper 90s. Then things become quite uncertain regarding the front
timing, strength, as well as precipitation. Both the deterministic
GFS and European model (ecmwf) suggest increased thunderstorm chances along this
front and will be carrying chance probability of precipitation (30-40 percent) Thursday
night. As we head into Friday, advection of cooler Canadian air will
likely prevail along with Post-frontal clouds and scattered
precipitation. We will continue chance 30 percent probability of precipitation into Friday
with highs in the upper 70s north to upper 80s along the Oklahoma
border with south-central Kansas. Friday night could be the best
chance for rainfall as both models GFS and European model (ecmwf) models have greater
quantitative precipitation forecast signal tied to warm frontogenesis in the 850-700mb layer (more
so by the GFS model). This is where the similarities in the two
models end. The European model (ecmwf) on Saturday of next week keeps the cooler
airmass in check whereas the GFS is much more aggressive with the
warm front, which is all dependent on the characteristic of the
southern branch jet. The European model (ecmwf) suggests more troughing/lower
heights which would favor a more robust surface high. Given the
usual better skill in the day 5-6 forecast from the ECMWF, this
cooler solution would be slightly favored. Officially in the grids,
Saturday highs just about everywhere will be in the upper 70s. This
is a compromise between the two solutions, but should the European model (ecmwf) run
verify, then it will not get out of the 60s next Saturday.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 655 am CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

The cold front which pushed through late last night will lead to
lighter winds today with north winds 12 to 15 knots on average. A
few late night thunderstorms may reach as far north as Garden City
to Dodge City in the 06-12z time frame early Tuesday morning, but
we will hold off on inclusion in the taf for now.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 87 65 89 68 / 10 30 20 10
gck 86 63 88 67 / 10 30 20 0
eha 89 63 90 66 / 0 10 10 0
lbl 90 64 91 69 / 0 20 10 10
hys 83 63 88 66 / 10 20 10 10
p28 90 70 93 71 / 10 50 40 20


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Russell
long term...umscheid

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