Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
215 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014
..update to long term...
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 321 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014
Very quiet regime will dominate the Central High plains today into
tonight as the aforementioned upper trough moves slowly eastward
across Kansas. Outside of a few snow flurries within the
frontogentic zone near Medicine Lodge early this morning, most of
the next 24 hours will be dominated by subsidence. This will allow
surface high pressure to gradually build southward into western
Kansas today with little to no cloud cover anticipated by late
morning and persiting through tonight. However, despite strong
solar insolation in the afternoon hours, 850-hpa temperatures
around -6c will keep conditions cold with highs in the lower to
middle 30s expected. Further, cold conditions will continue as the
main weather headline for tonight as light winds, a clear sky,
and very low dewpoints result in low temperatures between 5 to 15
above zero over southwest into central Kansas.
Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 211 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure
deepening as it drops southward across the Pacific northwest Monday
setting up a difluent flow aloft across the western High Plains.
Meanwhile, a strong cold front will push southward across western
Kansas while an upper level jet strengthens across the western
High Plains after exiting the trough axis out west. As the first
in a series of 500 mb vorticity maxima begin to eject out of The Rockies,
snow is likely to develop across the High Plains of Colorado. The
potential exists for the snow spreading eastward into portions of
western Kansas Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning.
However, weak quantitative precipitation forecast signals continue to suggest light snow amounts,
if any at all. Drier conditions are likely by middle week as the
deepening trough develops into a closed off low while sinking
further south into Southern California.
A cold front will push through western Kansas by early Monday
afternoon allowing much colder air to surge southward into the area.
This will lower high temperatures from the day previous with highs
only reaching the 20s(f) and 30s(f) Monday afternoon. Arctic air
will continue to spill into western Kansas Tuesday with the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) showing 850 mb temperatures tumbling to around 15c below zero
Tuesday afternoon with the coldest air mass setting up across west
central Kansas. Look for highs only up into the teens(f) for the
most part with near 20f still possible in south central Kansas.
Bitter cold temperatures are likely Tuesday night as Arctic high
pressure sinks southward into Kansas. Clearing skies along with
light and variable winds will allow temperatures to fall to near
if not below 0f in some locations. High temperatures will slowly
rebound Wednesday as the Arctic high continues to shift southeast
returning a south to southwesterly flow to western Kansas. Highs
are expected to reach back into the 20s(f) Wednesday afternoon
with the warming trend continuing through the end of the week.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1202 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014
Surface high pressure over western Kansas will give way to weak
Lee troughing by Sunday. As a result, light northwest winds will
become southwesterly tonight and then southerly on Sunday at
generally 10 kts or less. VFR conditions will persist.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 14 40 17 30 / 0 0 0 20
gck 11 38 16 26 / 0 0 0 30
eha 16 38 18 30 / 0 0 0 20
lbl 12 40 19 32 / 0 0 0 20
hys 11 38 17 25 / 0 0 0 30
p28 16 42 21 37 / 0 0 0 10