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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
340 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

..updated for short and long term discussions...

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 302 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

Southern Kansas continued to be in the right entrance region of a
jet streak in the wake of a departed upper level trough.
A weakening low to middle level front and convergence zone over
southwestern Kansas, along with plenty of low and middle level
moisture, continued to result in showers and thunderstorms over
south central Kansas this afternoon. Widespread cloud cover and
light upslope flow, along with the cooler airmass, had only
allowed temperatures to rise into the upper 70s and 80s.

Elevated thunderstorm activity is expected to persist tonight due
to the aforementioned reasons, primarily along and south of a
line from Johnson to Sublette to Ford to Pratt. The best chance of
heavier rain will be in Comanche, Pratt and Barber counties.
Lows will be in the 60s.

The models hint at a continuation of precipitation along the
Oklahoma border on Thursday, but it could be suppressed even
farther south. Highs Thursday will still be on the cool side, with
mainly 80s. Temperatures could reach the upper 80s to near 90
along the Interstate 70 corridor where more sunshine is expected.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 302 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

The frontogenesis and upper level jet streak configuration will
not be as favorable for widespread convection over southwest
Kansas by Friday and into the weekend. A gradual warming trend
will commence, with highs reaching close to 90 along Interstate 70
by Friday, with upper 80s along the Oklahoma border. High
temperatures may reach the middle 90s along Interstate 70 by Sunday,
with lower 90s farther south. Another shortwave trough will
approach the Central Plains by late Monday and Tuesday. The low to
middle level baroclinic zone associated with this feature, in the
presence of rich low level moisture, may be enough to initiate
showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 101 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

Upslope east winds at 6 to 12 kts will persist through the period
as a front remains stalled out to the south of Kansas. VFR
conditions will persist through the period, aside from any
thunderstorm activity at kddc between 04 and 12 UTC.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 64 85 65 89 / 30 20 20 20
gck 63 86 64 89 / 20 30 30 20
eha 65 86 65 88 / 30 30 30 20
lbl 66 86 67 89 / 40 30 30 30
hys 63 87 64 92 / 10 10 20 20
p28 67 85 67 89 / 60 40 40 40


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Finch
long term...Finch

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