Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1227 am CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015
..updated aviation section...
Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 131 PM CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015
Lee High Plains troughing will continue this evening. Southerly flow
will advect higher dewpoints across the region through the overnight
period. By morning, 50+ dewpoints should be covering much of the forecast
area. With the southerly winds and increasing dewpoints, overnight minimums
will be quite mild. With low 50s for Scott City to middle 50s by Medicine
Lodge. Increasing stratus and perhaps areas of fog is possible across
south-central Kansas too.
Our first shot at severe weather for the year. Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk
out. Some severe storms are possible west of this outlook area though.
By noon, the dryline will continue to sharpen and models have trended
westward with this feature. This make some sense, since upper flow is
more south-southwest rather than SW or west-southwest. From a blend of the 4 km NAM, WRF-arw,
WRF-nmm, convection should fire in the 4-6 PM time frame, roughly along
the Highway 83 corridor. The NAM mixes dewpoints out between 21z and
00z, and this could have impacts to how much cape we are dealing with.
Bulk shear is on the marginal side for supercells. For tomorrow, we
will be dealing with high based somewhat organized isolated storms.
Instead of using MUCAPE, using MLCAPE with the large hail parameter
algorithm comes up with a value of 3. This suggests that hail up to
the size of ping pong balls will be possible. Again, think cape could
trend downward if the dewpoints do, in fact, mix out. The other concern
is convective outflow. Forecast dcape values of around 1000 j/kg and
a related mixed profile do suggest the potential for downbursts with
50-60 miles per hour outflows. Forecast reflectivity also suggests an evolution
to a small qlcs, so this also gives some credence to a severe wind
threat. There is no tornado threat tomorrow. Activity will move to the
east/northeast and should clear the area by late evening, if not sooner.
Highs will be hot and in the upper 80s to around 90.
Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 215 PM CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015
For Thursday, a colder airmass will be in place behind a cold front
as cooler high pressure builds into the Central Plains. Highs will
be in the middle to upper 60s with mostly clear skies.
For Friday, a strong upper jet of 150kt comes in with a strong
shortwave trough in the morning with increasing chances for light
rain. It will be cold enough for a little snow to mix in also mainly
north of Dodge City. No snow accumulations are expected. Much of the
precipitation will end by noon as the upper level wave moves east of
the area. Lows on Friday morning will range from the middle 30s from
Johnson City to Garden City and WaKeeney, and from the upper 30s to
lower 40s elsewhere. Highs on Friday will still be on the cool side
and in the middle to upper 50s.
For the period of Saturday into early next week, the forecast looks
dry with a warming trend as shortwave ridging builds back into the
plains. Highs on Saturday will warm back to near 70, upper 70s on
Sunday, around 80 on Monday, and middle 70s on Tuesday. Lows will
warming from the middle 30s on Saturday morning to the 40s into early
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1223 am CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015
The main challenge will the thunderstorm chances at the terminals.
There is a fairly high degree of confidence in at least widely
scattered thunderstorms in close proximity to both ddc and hys
terminals, thus have included a thunderstorms in the vicinity line for late afternoon at
both terminals. Other than that, VFR conditions will prevail with
south-southwest winds in the 15 to 20 knot range in the afternoon,
except lighter at gck. A cold front will push through with north
winds developing at the end of this forecast period (06z
issued at 149 PM CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015
After coordination with gld and pub...have issued a Fire Weather Watch
for tomorrow. Winds are much in question. Rh's should easily reach criteria.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 46 68 39 57 / 50 10 30 20
gck 42 67 36 56 / 40 10 40 20
eha 43 68 37 56 / 10 10 40 20
lbl 45 69 39 58 / 10 10 30 20
hys 44 67 38 57 / 50 10 30 10
p28 52 70 44 59 / 30 10 20 10
Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT /11 am MDT/ today through this
evening for ksz043-061>063-074>076-084>086.