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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1203 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

..update to aviation...

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 257 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015

An upper level cold pool was still situated over the Central
Plains with cool 500mb temperatures around -15c. A shortwave
trough was progressing across Oklahoma and North Texas this
afternoon and was responsible for a mesoscale convective complex
in that area. Farther north over western Kansas, low to middle level
shear was much weaker than yesterday. With daytime heating,
a few showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
evening, especially along and south of a weak frontal boundary
from Liberal to Dodge City to Larned. Severe weather is not
expected due to weak vertical wind shear, with only some brief
heavy rain. With fairly light winds tonight and given the absence
of thick stratus, temperatures are expected to fall into the 50s.
Only some isolated thunderstorm activity can be expected Tuesday
afternoon with daytime heating as the weak frontal boundary will
have shifted into the Southern Plains. With sunshine, afternoon
temperatures ought to reach into the upper 70s.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 339 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015

Westerly flow aloft with broad upper level troughiness over the
western and central Continental U.S. Will persist through much of the extended
period. At the beginning of the period Tuesday evening, thunderstorm
chances should mainly be confined toward central and south central
Kansas closer to weak surface boundary that will extend across the
area. A shortwave ridge will be building east out of The Rockies
into the Central High plains Tuesday evening and this, along with
somewhat drier air to the west of the boundary, which should keep
the remainder of the area dry.

Better chances for thunderstorms, including severe weather and
potentially flooding rainfall, will return to southwest Kansas on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The upper flow turns more
southwesterly over the Central Plains as a stronger upper level
disturbance digs into the southwestern states. With the increasing
flow we will see increasing 0-6km shear along with good low level
moist advection we should see an increasing severe threat. Model precipitable water
fields approach the 90th percentile especially toward central Kansas
Wednesday evening. Thunderstorm chances should continue on a daily
basis through the end of the week as the western Continental U.S. System moves
east across the plains.

By early next week around day7/8, the models show the strongest
westerly flow aloft shifting northward into the northern rockies and
plains as high pressure builds over the Southern Plains and
southwest. This should result in a trend toward decreasing chances
for precipitation and somewhat warmer temperatures at least for a
few days.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1202 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites through late Tuesday
afternoon. A surface low in eastern Nebraska with an attendant
frontal boundary extending southwest into western Kansas, is not
expected to move very much through Tuesday afternoon. As a result,
light and variable winds are likely to continue through much of
the period.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 57 82 62 80 / 20 50 60 40
gck 55 82 60 81 / 20 50 60 40
eha 54 83 59 80 / 20 30 40 30
lbl 57 81 62 81 / 20 40 50 40
hys 56 83 61 80 / 10 40 60 50
p28 60 80 65 79 / 30 50 60 50


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Finch
long term...gerard

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