Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1132 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014
..updated aviation section...
Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 311 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014
Cool surface high pressure was located across the Central High
plains this afternoon in the wake of a shortwave trough. Surface
winds will remain rather weak tonight as winds become light
southwesterly on the back side of the surface high. Clear skies
along with the fairly light winds will allow temperatures to fall
into the teens. The middle to upper level flow will become more zonal
across the central rockies by Sunday as 500mb heights fall across
the western United States. This will lead to surface Lee
troughing, south winds and slightly warmer highs in the upper 30s
to lower 40s for Sunday. Only a few high clouds are expected by
Sunday near the Interstate 70 corridor.
Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 211 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure
deepening as it drops southward across the Pacific northwest Monday
setting up a difluent flow aloft across the western High Plains.
Meanwhile, a strong cold front will push southward across western
Kansas while an upper level jet strengthens across the western
High Plains after exiting the trough axis out west. As the first
in a series of 500 mb vorticity maxima begin to eject out of The Rockies,
snow is likely to develop across the High Plains of Colorado. The
potential exists for the snow spreading eastward into portions of
western Kansas Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning.
However, weak quantitative precipitation forecast signals continue to suggest light snow amounts,
if any at all. Drier conditions are likely by middle week as the
deepening trough develops into a closed off low while sinking
further south into Southern California.
A cold front will push through western Kansas by early Monday
afternoon allowing much colder air to surge southward into the area.
This will lower high temperatures from the day previous with highs
only reaching the 20s(f) and 30s(f) Monday afternoon. Arctic air
will continue to spill into western Kansas Tuesday with the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) showing 850 mb temperatures tumbling to around 15c below zero
Tuesday afternoon with the coldest air mass setting up across west
central Kansas. Look for highs only up into the teens(f) for the
most part with near 20f still possible in south central Kansas.
Bitter cold temperatures are likely Tuesday night as Arctic high
pressure sinks southward into Kansas. Clearing skies along with
light and variable winds will allow temperatures to fall to near
if not below 0f in some locations. High temperatures will slowly
rebound Wednesday as the Arctic high continues to shift southeast
returning a south to southwesterly flow to western Kansas. Highs
are expected to reach back into the 20s(f) Wednesday afternoon
with the warming trend continuing through the end of the week.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1131 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014
Tranquil weather regime will continue to prevail over western and
central Kansas through Sunday with VFR conditions expected to
prevail. High pressure at the surface over the Central Plains will
gradually give way to a trough of low pressure over eastern
Colorado this afternoon. This will allow light winds to turn more
southerly at around 10 knots by early afternoon but with little other
variable aviation weather expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 13 40 17 29 / 0 0 0 20
gck 7 38 16 26 / 0 0 0 30
eha 12 39 18 28 / 0 0 0 20
lbl 11 41 19 29 / 0 0 0 20
hys 9 39 17 25 / 0 0 0 30
p28 15 42 21 37 / 0 0 0 10