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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
340 am CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

..updated for long term discussion...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 244 am CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

A weak vortmax in northwest flow aloft will move across western
Kansas later today and tonight. A cold front will also drop
southward by around midnight at Dodge City. The best chance for some
showers and thunderstorms will develop as a 900mb frontogenetical
zone sets up with the cold front. A stray thunderstorm, with
small hail, may also develop, mainly east and southeast of Dodge
City in the Pratt to Medicine Lodge area, with steep lapse rates
and 40s dewpoints by late afternoon or early evening, ahead of the
cold front. Forecast convective available potential energy around 500 j/kg with some middle level

For today expect mostly sunny skies with increasing high level
clouds near Dodge City and north in the afternoon. Winds will be
fairly light from the west to northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Highs today
should make into the lower to middle 70s per warmer mav guidance and
forecast soundings.

Tonight expect mostly cloudy skies with 20 to 40 percent chances of
showers and thunderstorms, some with small hail. Not expecting any
severe. The highest probability of precipitation will be along the Oklahoma border and
southeast of Dodge City. Winds will shift to the north to northeast
and become gusty at time from 15 to 25 miles per hour with the cold front.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 315 am CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

At the start of the long term (wednesday), a large upper level
trough will be situated over the Great Lakes, with surface high
pressure on the back side of the trough, ridging into western
Kansas. Meanwhile, another deep upper level trough will be
situated off the coast of Southern California. A middle level
baroclinic zone will be located across the Central Plains on the
periphery of the Great Lakes trough; and this will persist into
Thursday. Increasing isentropic lift Wednesday into Thursday may
result in a few showers. With the cloud cover, temperatures may
not rise above the lower 60s, and could stay in the upper 50s
Thursday in a few places. By Thursday night, the southwestern
system will get closer, with isentropic lift resulting in chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Given that this system will be
progressive and not closed off, the best chance for significant
rainfall will be from Dodge City eastward including Hays and
Pratt. On Friday, the upper level system will eject northeastward
across western Kansas, a few showers and thunderstorms may linger
across western Kansas. Any severe thunderstorms will likely be
east and north of Dodge City in the low level moist axis.
Temperatures may warm into the 70s if the sun breaks out. This
upper trough will progress off to the east by Friday night and
saturday; but the next system will be close behind. After briefly
being shunted to the southeast, low level moisture will try to
return as surface pressures fall in the Lee of The Rockies.
Therefore, there is another chance of thunderstorms Saturday night
into Sunday. High temperatures are expected to reach into the 60s
and 70s Saturday and Sunday.

After Sunday, the various models are advertising a high amplitude
upper level trough developing over the Great Lakes and Midwest,
with cool air being transported southeastward from Canada. This
will likely result in high temperatures falling from the 70s
Monday into the upper 50s and 60s by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Low temperatures may be in the 30s by Wednesday and Thursday
morning, and with surface high pressure over the plains, some
frost can't be ruled out.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1247 am CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

VFR conditions will continue. Some middle level clouds will decrease
this morning as a weak wave passes, then middle level clouds increase
overnight with a cold front. Southwest winds around 10kt will
shift and increase to the north or northeast at 15-25kt around and
after midnight.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 74 42 64 45 / 10 20 40 20
gck 74 40 64 45 / 10 20 30 20
eha 74 44 66 48 / 10 30 30 30
lbl 75 44 65 48 / 10 30 30 20
hys 72 37 62 43 / 10 10 20 20
p28 75 45 64 47 / 10 30 40 30


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Kruse
long term...Finch

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