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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
607 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

..updated aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 225 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

A shortwave trough over southern Colorado this afternoon will lift
northeastward into northwestern Kansas by late tonight and then
into Nebraska by Monday afternoon. Although the lower levels have
been stabilized somewhat by repeated mesoscale convective system activity over the past
few days, some recovery is expected late this afternoon over far
western Kansas ahead of the trough and middle to upper level cold
pool. Thunderstorms were already developing this afternoon over
the higher terrain of Colorado. Additional storms will develop
close to the Colorado state line late this afternoon. The deep
layered shear may be sufficient for rotating storms but a
transition to more linear type structures is likely given the
strong forcing for ascent. Also, upper level winds in the trough
axis were weak, yielding very weak upper level shear. So despite
the moderate surface based cape values, hail only as large as half
dollars is expected. The storms will probably evolve into an
organized cluster and progress northeastward across western Kansas
tonight. The best chance for storms will be along and north of a
line from Elkhart to Garden City to Hays. Temperatures tonight
will be held up by clouds and high dewpoints, with mainly 60s in
central and south central Kansas and 50s in far western Kansas.

Another shortwave trough will approach western Kansas by Monday
afternoon. A few late day thunderstorms are possible ahead of this
feature. Due to the weak shear, these storms will probably be
limited to small hail and heavy rain. Temperatures should be
warmer in the absence of upslope flow, with highs from the middle 70s
in far western Kansas to the lower 80s in south central Kansas.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 328 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave lifting
northeast across the Central Plains into the western Great Lakes
region Tuesday giving way to a more westerly flow aloft across the
western High Plains. Meanwhile, the GFS and European model (ecmwf) hint at a smaller
upper level shortwave ejecting out of The Rockies into the western
High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Although the flow aloft is projected
to be fairly weak during this time frame, enough moisture will be
present with 850 mb dewpoints in excess of 10c. As low/middle level lapse
rates steepen and modest instability develops in conjunction with
the arrival of the shortwave, isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across portions of central and southwest Kansas Tuesday
afternoon and evening. However, severe weather will be limited with
unfavorable shear profiles and cape values well under 1000 j/kg.
Limited thunderstorm chances will continue Wednesday and Thursday as
a series of 500 mb vorticity maxima begin to move out of The Rockies into the
western High Plains downstream of an approaching upper level trough
across the intermountain west.

Near seasonal temperatures are expected Tuesday with little change
expected to the overall air mass. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) show 850 mb
temperatures well up into the teens(c) to near 20c. Should see highs
climbing well up into the 70s(f) to near 80f once again Tuesday
afternoon. Similar high temperatures can be expected through the
later part of next week with little change to the overall air mass
across the region.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 603 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

Scattered thunderstorms spread across western Kansas early tonight
as an upper level trough crosses the Central High plains. NAM bufr
soundings indicate that as the upper level disturbance crosses
western Kansas early tonight the southeasterly flow in the lower
levels will continue and the lower levels will saturate, mainly between
03z and 06z at ddc and gck. Based on the model soundings IFR
status is expected to return early tonight and then persist
through early Monday morning as a southeasterly wind continues at
10 to 15 knots. Visibilities falling back into the 1 to 3 mile
range also looks likely after midnight given the low level
moisture profiles. Hys will also have IFR ceilings and
visibilities overnight but the onset of these deteriorating
conditions will be closer to 06z. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall
will accompany the thunderstorms as they crosses western Kansas
early tonight. Timing on convection is still uncertain but at this
time it appears convection will most likely to occur around the
gck area around 03z and ddc closer to 06z. If the storms hold
today then hys will have a chance for thunderstorms between 08z
and 11z.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 61 80 55 78 / 20 30 20 20
gck 58 77 52 77 / 40 30 20 20
eha 55 77 53 78 / 20 20 20 20
lbl 59 79 54 79 / 20 20 20 20
hys 58 77 53 79 / 40 30 30 10
p28 60 84 58 77 / 20 20 20 30


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Finch
long term...jjohnson

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