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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
622 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

..updated aviation section...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 139 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

An upper level trough, located over central Colorado at 00z
Wednesday, will move across western Kansas early this morning as
the next upper level trough moves quickly east across the western
United States. As the first upper level wave moves into central
Kansas by 12z Wednesday and any lingering precipitation across
south central Kansas will end and a surface boundary will move
south/southeast and extend from central Kansas to the Panhandle
of Texas. This surface boundary will then remain nearly stationary
through early tonight as an area of low pressure develops over
southeast Colorado in response to the next upper level trough
which will be approaching the area from the west. 850mb
temperatures this afternoon across south central Kansas continues
to support highs climbing into the middle 80s. Upper 80s not out
of the question along the Oklahoma border. Further northwest highs
will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

As surface pressures fall over southeast Colorado later today, a
wedge of higher low level moisture will begin to return to western
Kansas as a easterly upslope flow develops. 850mb warm air
advection and 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis both improve by early
this evening north of this front western Kansas as the next upper
level trough crosses central Colorado. 00z NAM 0-6km wind shear
across western Kansas at 21z Wednesday and 00z Thursday is
forecast to be around 50 knots with cape values just north of our
surface boundary in central/north central Kansas will range from
1000 to 2000 j/kg. This supports that if thunderstorms do develop
in this area they could become severe. At this time confidence on
afternoon/evening thunderstorm development in north central and
south central Kansas is not high given the location of the surface
boundary late today and that the better upper level dynamics by
late day will be west of this area and be confined mainly eastern
Colorado/extreme western Kansas. Still given the warm air
advection and Theta-E advection improving early tonight near the
nose of the low level jet am still unable to completely rule out a
few thunderstorms north of the surface boundary in central/north
central Kansas. The chance for thunderstorm will improve after
sunset across all of western Kansas as the upper level trough
moves east across the Central High plains. Based on where the
700mb baroclinic zone is expected overnight will favor the better
opportunity for convection over west central and north central
Kansas overnight.

As the upper level trough crosses western Kansas tonight a
reinforcement of colder air will surge south across western Kansas
after midnight. 0-1 km above ground level mean winds from the NAM behind this
front forecast to range from 30 to near 40 knots from 09z to 12z
Thursday. GFS also had 30 to 35 knots over portions of western
Kansas at 12z Thursday in the 0-1km layer. Based on this along the
the layer average mixed layer winds and expected cold air
advection there will be a period of when wind speeds approach 30
miles per hour over far western Kansas. As for temperatures overnight will
undercut guidance for lows where the better cold air advection
will be occurring after midnight in far western Kansas. Elsewhere
the previous forecast still looked on track.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 223 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Isolated thunderstorms will end from west to east Thursday with
clearing expected in the afternoon. This is due to a strong upper
level shortwave moving out of The Rockies and through the central
and northern plains. A cold front will accompany this system
shifting winds to more of a northerly direction with much cooler
temperatures behind it. Mostly clear skies are expected Thursday
night thought Sunday as the upper level long wave trough moves
into the eastern United States and upper level ridging builds
across the western United States. This will place southwest Kansas
under northwest flow aloft suppressing any activity from forming.
Partly cloudy skies are expected Monday into Tuesday as middle to
upper level moisture increases across the area. Highs Thursday and
Friday are anticipated to range from the upper 60s across the I-70
corridor to lower 70s across the Kansas/OK border. Lows Friday and
Saturday mornings will be in the 40s. Highs then slowly rebound
into the lower 80s for the remainder of the extended period with
lows in the lower 50s.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 621 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Dense fog down to a quarter of a mile will be observed across the
hys terminal through 14z. Otherwise expect VFR conditions
throughout the day with increasing middle to upper level clouds this
afternoon. Winds will generally be from the north this morning
into the afternoon shifting to more of an easterly direction late
afternoon into this evening.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 82 53 70 46 / 10 30 30 0
gck 81 51 69 44 / 10 60 20 0
eha 80 48 69 45 / 10 20 20 0
lbl 82 52 70 46 / 10 20 20 0
hys 80 52 66 42 / 20 70 40 10
p28 89 61 72 50 / 10 30 30 10


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
dense fog advisory until 10 am CDT this morning for ksz030-031-



Short term...burgert
long term...hovorka_42

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