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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
102 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014

..update to short term...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 100 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014

Short range models indicate the upper level ridge across the
intermountain breaking down as it continues to push into the western
High Plains today. Meanwhile, the surface trough in eastern Colorado
will begin pushing into extreme western Kansas. This will bring
about a more southwest to westerly downslope flow across the area
during much of the period. With little moisture available, drier
conditions will persist through Friday night. Temperatures will
remain well above normal today as the Lee side trough pushes into
extreme western Kansas. Much warmer air will advect into western
Kansas with the NAM/GFS showing 850 mb temperatures climbing well up
into the middle to upper teens(c). Again, with the help of a downslope
flow, look for highs well up into the 60s(f) in central Kansas to
the lower and middle 70s(f) in southwest Kansas for an unseasonably
warm day. Temperatures tonight will drop generally down into the
30s(f).

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 318 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014

Widespread westerly surface winds continue through Friday night
across the entire High Plains region. This weak adiabatic warming
pattern should help keep temperatures from falling below freezing in
most areas and contribute to rapid warming on Saturday morning once
insolation becomes a factor. Raw model output is around 5-8 degrees
warmer than average MOS temperatures for very early Saturday
morning.

On Sunday, the NAM and the European model (ecmwf) are in great agreement
with the cold front sweeping through the area. It is possible an
early high temperature in the upper 50s or even 60s could occur
around Liberal and Elkhart, but rapidly falling temperatures are
likely by late morning through the rest of the day. This strong cold
advection pattern will likely relegate the Hays and k-96 region to
no warmer than around or just above freezing temperatures through
the afternoon with breezy northeast winds.

Temperatures will not exceed the 30s anywhere on Monday afternoon,
but return warm advection should allow warming into the 50s west of
Highway 283. A slow return to near normal temperatures is expected
through the rest of the period as the dry zonal pattern resumes.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1100 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites through Friday
evening. Winds will turn southwesterly at around 5 to 15kt
overnight as a Lee side trough in eastern Colorado begins to
push toward the Kansas border. The light winds will then
persist through Friday afternoon as the Lee side trough
remains near the vicinity of the Colorado border.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 72 35 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
gck 72 35 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
eha 75 35 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 73 35 75 35 / 0 0 0 0
hys 68 33 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
p28 67 33 68 37 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...jjohnson
long term...Russell
aviation...jjohnson

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