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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
606 am CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

..updated aviation discussion...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 219 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

An upper level low will continue to slowly move eastward today
through tonight with a large upper level high centered over the
southeast United States. Mid levels of the atmosphere become more
saturated as today progresses with increased cloudiness expected
this evening into the overnight period. A trough of low pressure
will be observed at the surface, extending from northwest Kansas
back into southeast Colorado. Meanwhile, a dome of high pressure
will be located across the southeast United States. These features
will allow south to southwest winds to be felt today through tonight
with breezy conditions likely this afternoon as the atmosphere
mixes. During peak heating, a few thunderstorms may form ahead of
the aforementioned trough. Severe storms are not expected, but with
such a wide T/TD separation, a few storms may be capable of
producing strong winds up to 55 mph. Any storms that do form should
move eastward this evening then move out of or dissipate by or
around midnight. Highs today are forecasted to reach into the mid to
upper 90s with around 100 degrees across the Kansas/OK border. Lows
tonight are expected to range from the upper 60s across the Kansas/Colorado
border to the mid 70s across south central Kansas.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 315 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

A southwesterly flow will persist across the Central Plains
through the weekend period into early next week as an upper ridge
axis remains nearly stationary from the lower Mississippi Valley
to the western Great Lakes region. All the models are in decent
agreement with an upper low, located just off the coast of
Southern California at 00z Thursday, weakening as it approaches
the central rockies late week and early this weekend. Cloud cover
and precipitation chances will improve as tropical moisture
increases ahead of this approaching upper level system so will
retain higher chances across west central and north central Kansas
Friday night given the timing of this weakening upper system and
location of a surface boundary. Precipitation chances will then
continue from late this weekend through early next week as another
upper level trough approaches the area from the west and a cold
front drops south into western Kansas.

Temperatures around 100 degree on Friday still looks on track
based on the 850mb to 700mb temperature trends from the ECMWF,
NAM, and GFS. Temperatures will be slightly cooler over the
weekend period given the increase in tropical moisture and
slightly cooler temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level at 00z
Sunday and 00z Monday. Temperatures will fall back to more
seasonal levels early next week as the cold front moves south into
portions of western Kansas.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 604 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

06z NAM bufr soundings along with 10z surface observations and
the latest hrrr indicating cloud bases early this morning and late
this afternoon will be at or above 5000ft above ground level. A few widely
scattered showers across north central Kansas will taper off by
15z. Late day instability will result in another slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms along a surface boundary which will
extend across western Kansas, however at this time given how
widely scattered these storms will be late today have decided not
to include them in the 12z tafs. Gusty southwest winds at 15 to
near 20 knots today will subside back into the 10 to 15 knot range
by sunset.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 98 73 99 73 / 20 20 20 20
gck 97 71 98 70 / 20 20 20 30
eha 96 70 97 70 / 20 20 20 30
lbl 99 72 99 73 / 20 20 20 20
hys 99 73 99 73 / 20 20 20 30
p28 99 76 100 77 / 10 10 10 10


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...hovorka_42
long term...burgert

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