Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
511 PM CST Friday Dec 19 2014
..updated for the aviation discussion...
Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 119 PM CST Friday Dec 19 2014
With limited boundary layer mixing, the stratus has been slow to
erode today. Thus, temperatures have struggled to warm. Light fog
had persisted across my eastern counties or basically where there
was still snow cover. The stratus should continue to slowly erode
the remainder of the day but I have doubts that it will
completely, especially across the east. Tonight with a light south
winds and slightly higher Theta-E air to the south, there will
likely be stratus and fog again, much like this morning.
Temperatures on Saturday will be dependent on how widespread the
low clouds are and how quickly they erode tomorrow. There should
be a bit more mixing of the boundary layer so temperatures should
be warmer than today.
Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 220 PM CST Friday Dec 19 2014
Medium range models indicate an open upper level shortwave trough
transitioning eastward across the Central Plains Sunday giving way
to a northwesterly flow aloft across the western High Plains by
Sunday night. However, with a weak flow aloft a little low/middle level
moisture available, drier conditions will prevail across western
Kansas through Sunday evening. Precipitation chances pick up a little early
Monday as a series of 500 mb vorticity maxima begin to dig southeastward out
of the northern rockies into the western High Plains. Meanwhile, an
associated cold front is projected to push into western Kansas
Monday morning providing a potential focus for precipitation initiation.
Although limited moisture and a weaker flow aloft will limit
significant precipitation chances, a slight chance for rain , especially
across extreme southwest Kansas where some proximity to a strong
upper level jet digging across The Rockies may be felt. Dry
conditions return Tuesday as a developing downslope flow across
western Kansas draws much drier air into the region.
Above normal temperatures are expected Sunday as a Lee side trough
of low pressure develops and strengthens across eastern Colorado.
This will set up a south to southwesterly flow across western Kansas
enhancing warm air advection into the area with 850 mb temperatures
climbing to a little above 5c across central and southwest Kansas.
Along with decreased cloud cover, look for highs up into the 50s(f)
across much of the area Sunday afternoon. Similar temperatures are
likely Monday even as a weak cold front pushes through western
Kansas by Monday afternoon. The delayed arrival of colder air behind
the frontal passage will lower highs back down into the 40s(f) on
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 501 PM CST Friday Dec 19 2014
As a weak upper level wave shifts to the east into Arkansas
tonight, near zonal westerly flow will take over. A weak north to
south oriented stationary front will be washed out tonight,
leaving a weak surface trough near the Colorado and Kansas border.
This means very little will change from the past few days. Patchy
fog will likely form in kddc and khys after 08z, but visibilities lower
then 3sm br are not anticipated.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 26 49 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
gck 23 52 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
eha 25 51 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 25 52 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
hys 25 51 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
p28 30 52 35 52 / 0 0 0 0