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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
519 am MDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 349 am MDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

A low level southeasterly upslope flow has produced widespread
moderate drizzle through the late night and early morning hours
from the I-80 Summit down through Cheyenne and Pine Bluffs...but
the drizzle is becoming less widespread and the southeasterly flow
has weakened a bit here shortly before dawn. Will keep a mention
of drizzle in through middle morning...and will keep widespread low
clouds in east of the Laramie range through late morning before we
see breaks. Otherwise...we see some scattered mostly light showers
moving across the snowy and south Laramie range early this morning
that will affect portions of Albany and Laramie counties through
middle morning...so will keep a chance of showers going this morning
for those areas. By late morning...we expect to see scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms forming across the west
becoming more numerous as a shortwave trough interacts with a
stationary boundary in the afternoon hours. Many areas out across
Carbon and Albany counties received a half inch of rain
yesterday...with some locations receiving nearly 2 inches of
rainfall over the past 48 hours. Model soundings are deeply
saturated showing around 1 inch of precipitable water today into
tonight...and storm motions only around 13 knots. With that in
mind...and with the fact that the grounds in some areas of Carbon
and South Albany counties are saturated...we posted a Flash Flood
Watch for those areas valid for this afternoon and evening. The
greatest coverage of storms this afternoon and evening are
expected to be Cheyenne to Douglas westward...with less coverage
across the Nebraska Panhandle where persistent low clouds in the
southerly upslope flow (most areas) will keep things a bit more
stabilized into the middle afternoon.

Otherwise...we keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms going
again on Wednesday as we remain underneath an active westerly
upper flow in a deeply saturated airmass. There is the possiblity
that the Flash Flood Watch may have to be modified or extended
into Wednesday based on trends today and where the heaviest storms
focus tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 349 am MDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Wet pattern to continue in the long term forecast. GFS soundings
across the County warning forecast area showing precipitable waters of .8 inches near Rawlins to well
over an inch in the Panhandle. All thats needed is an upper level
disturbance to move over the area and convection will fire off.
Forecast challenges deal with timing of these disturbances.

Starting off Thursday...European model (ecmwf) shows an upper shortwave being
kicked off a low pressure center in southern Nevada...moving
through the area during the late morning and afternoon. Areas
west of the Laramie range look to be the best location for
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

The low itself tracks to the northeast on Friday...tracking
through northwestern Wyoming into western Montana Friday
afternoon/evening. Showers and thunderstorms expected once again
as this happens with best chances again west of the Laramie range.

The weekend looks mainly dry and kept probability of precipitation out of the forecast.
Upper ridge moves over the area and persists into the beginning of
next week. Need to be watching monsoon moisture though as both the
GFS and European model (ecmwf) have it over western Colorado.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 510 am MDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Latest hrrr guidance used in the 12z tafs. Keeping IFR ceiling in
here at kcys through the late morning. Heavy rain with
thunderstorms possible today at krwl and klar. While our Panhandle
airports should remain VFR with ceilings arounf 4-5k feet.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 349 am MDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

A mostly wet weather pattern will continue through Thursday with
increased coverages of showers and thunderstorms across southeast
Wyoming into the western Nebraska Panhandle. As high pressure
builds in from the southeast this weekend...the weather pattern is
expected to become drier by Saturday. Temperatures will remain
below normal through much of this week while the wet pattern
continues. Therefore...no fire weather concerns are anticipated in
the near term.

&&

Cys watches/warnings/advisories...
Wyoming...Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for
wyz109>116.

NE...none.
&&

$$

Short term...jg
long term...gcc
aviation...gcc
fire weather...jg

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