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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
1042 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 457 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Warm and dry will continue to be the theme the next few days as an
upper level ridge will be the main weather influence over
southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle. Current satellite is
showing some convective clouds over the west...but there is very
little vertical development at this time. Would not be surprised
to see a sprinkle or two reaching the ground here or there...but
the chance for measurable rain is near zero. A weak shortwave will
move across northern portions of the forecast area this evening
and into the overnight hours. There may be enough lift for a few
echos on radar as the wave passes through the area...but with such
dry low levels it will be tough for much more than sprinkles
through tonight.

Virtually no chances for measurable rain Wednesday or Thursday.
The upper level ridge axis will be along the Front Range Thursday
which will also be the warmest day of the week. Highs will be be
well into the 80s over the plains and even into the middle 90s for
portions of the Nebraska Panhandle.

Long term...(friday through tuesday)
issued at 300 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Another warm day Friday but a cool front will pass across during
the day with widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms associated
with the front. Milder temperatures will then settle over the
region over the weekend into early next week as a surface high moves
down the High Plains then shifts east slowly during the early part
of next week. A complicating feature will be a cutoff low that
will initially be over Southern California Saturday. Latest ec has
changed in that it now lifts this system slowly northeast through
early next week and thus spreads some quantitative precipitation forecast across the County Warning Area from late
Sunday through Tuesday. GFS keeps precipitation to the south for the most
part. For now will maintain a mainly dry forecast but may very well
have to bring in some precipitation if models become more consistent with
this movement of the upper system.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday evening)
issued at 1042 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period.
An area of middle-level clouds will move through sites tonight producing
sct200-250. There may be a few showers associated with these
clouds...but confidence is not high enough to include mention in
tafs. Will see shallow convection again after 19z Wednesday. Aside
from some enhanced afternoon cloudiness...these will not have any
effect on aviation conditions on Wednesday.


Fire weather...
issued at 300 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Upper level ridge of high pressure will produce warm and dry weather
Wednesday and Thursday. A weak disturbance will move over the area
Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday but
overall chances for wetting rains are low. Temperatures will trend
cooler Friday and generally remain that way through the
weekend...but still near normal for this time of year. Dry this
weekend with very little chance for any precipitation. Dry
conditions to continue next week with warmer temperatures


Cys watches/warnings/advisories...



Short term...small
fire weather...small

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