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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
513 am MST Sat Feb 6 2016

Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 310 am MST Sat Feb 6 2016

Today...current High Wind Warning for Arlington...Bordeaux and the
Interstate 80 Summit looks on track. Craig to Casper 700 mb height
gradients will be mainly in the upper 50s into this evening with 850
gradients occasionally in the 60s. With a shortwave trough aloft
moving into the western Dakotas this afternoon...winds aloft over
our counties expected to increase this afternoon.

As for the inherited high wind watch...low and middle level gradients
looking borderline for high winds today at
Rawlins...Douglas...Laramie and Wheatland...so have decided not to
upgrade.

Looks like a dry day with limited low and middle level moisture.
Compromised between NAM and GFS MOS highs for maximum temperatures.

Tonight...flow aloft veers to more northwest in the wake of the
shortwave trough aloft passage over the Dakotas...and we will see
moderate cold air advection over our counties behind a cold front
producing a brisk and cold night.

Sunday...our flow aloft veers even more...to north northwest. Low
and middle level gradients increase significantly...especially across
western Nebraska in the late morning and afternoon...along with
projected winds in the low and middle levels. Have decided to issue a
high wind watch for western Nebraska from middle morning through the
afternoon as the 500-300 mb and 700-500 mb layers show downward qg
motion which may help to bring the strong winds to the surface. Will
need to watch far eastern Wyoming locations as well for possible
strong winds. Cold and blustery day in the wake of the cold front.

Sunday night...expecting low level winds to decouple early in the
evening...thus winds should subside in the early evening hours.
Aside from some middle and high level clouds...the night will be rather
quiet.

Long term...(monday through Thursday night)
issued at 310 am MST Sat Feb 6 2016

An upper level ridge will build over the western Continental U.S. Through the
early part of the week with fast northwest flow over the forecast
area on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Expect gusty
northwest winds to persist mainly along and east of the Laramie
range on Monday as models show 750-700 mb of 50 to 55 kts over
this area. Relatively strong low level warm air advection will keep the strongest
winds elevated...but still should see gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour across
the area through the afternoon. Winds aloft will steadily diminish
across the plains Tuesday through Wednesday...but will increase
out west as the upper ridge slowly propagates eastward and a weak
disturbance rounds the top of the ridge. Would not be surprised to
see some wind gusts 50 miles per hour or higher in the wind prone areas
Wednesday morning. Winds on Thursday will ease as the upper ridge
moves overhead and winds aloft weaken. Temperatures through the
week will rise into the 40s/50s across the plains and 30s/40s out
west with no precipitation expected.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 512 am MST Sat Feb 6 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at most sites through the period. The
exception will be at krwl early this morning where MVFR stratus
is still in place. Do think ceilings will lift over the next 2
hours...although model guidance suggests a return of MVFR stratus
after 03z tonight. Otherwise...mainly high clouds will stream
overhead from west to east through the day. Gusty west to
southwest winds will prevail at the Wyoming terminals
this morning...increasing and spreading to the eastern plains
sites through the day. Gusts of 30 to 40 knots are likely at
kcys...klar...and krwl this afternoon with 20 to 30 kts
elsewhere. Winds will ease with sunset.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 310 am MST Sat Feb 6 2016

No fire weather concerns based on projected humidities the next
several days.

&&

Cys watches/warnings/advisories...
Wyoming...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for wyz106-110-
116-117.

NE...high wind watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
nez002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

Short term...Rubin
long term...rjm
aviation...rjm
fire weather...Rubin

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