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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
619 PM MDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 251 PM MDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

Gusty winds will continue over the area through this afternoon.
Winds will be around Wind Advisory thresholds over the southern
Nebraska Panhandle through late afternoon but winds will quickly
drop off this evening.

A few light rain showers and sprinkles will be possible mainly
over east central Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle through this
evening but measurable amounts will be few and far between. As the
main upper level forcing shifts east of the area later tonight the
chances for precipitation will wane.

Skies will clear from west to east through the day Friday with
clear skies by Friday night. Temperatures will moderate Friday
with highs mainly in the 60s east with 50s west. Westerly winds
will again increase for the afternoon hours with breezy to windy
conditions across the forecast area.

An upper ridge will build across The Rockies Saturday bringing
much warmer air to the region. Westerly downslope winds and sunny
skies will help push temperatures into the lower 80s in the
Nebraska Panhandle with 60s and 70s over southeast Wyoming. High
temperatures will certainly approach record territory Saturday.
Deep mixing will make for windy conditions across most of the
forecast area Saturday.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 251 PM MDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

Upper ridge to our west starts breaking down Sunday as a shortwave
trough moves southeast across the northern rockies and east into
the northern plains on Sunday. Stuck with the previous forecast
trend of keeping most of any precipitation north of our area on
Sunday in closer agreement with the 12z GFS and not the wetter
European model (ecmwf) that drives the shortwave farther south. The latest GFS and
European model (ecmwf) are in some agreement that the upper ridge will build
slightly northeast pushing the train of stronger shortwaves in the
west/northwesterly flow aloft farther north across Montana and the
Dakotas through midweek...then the GFS brings a strong shortwave
southeast out of southern Idaho late Thursday and deepens a
surface low reflection over northern Colorado. Kept previous
forecast trend of bringing probability of precipitation up a bit for scattered snow/rain
showers across the western areas on day 7...just delayed it into
Thursday on this package.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 619 PM MDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

Winds will continue to be the main concern through the taf period
along with light rain showers. Gusty winds will persist through
around 02z this evening...with variable directions ranging from
westerly near north-northwest over many locations across the Wyoming/NE
plains...with even northeasterly winds along I-25 and near kcdr.
Winds will ease and return to a more west-northwest component overnight...but
look to increase once again late Friday morning.

Isolated light rain showers are expected to continue tonight
over the northern and eastern Panhandle sites...with VFR
conditions expected in these showers. Shower activity ongoing vcty
kcys at 00z will dissipate by 02z.


Fire weather...
issued at 251 PM MDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

Breezy to windy conditions and warmer temperatures will be in
place across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle Friday
afternoon. Humidity values will drop into the 20 to 25 percent
range for areas east of the Laramie range with wind gusts 25 to
30 miles per hour. Although red flag conditions are not expected
Friday...but given dry fuels conditions there will be the
potential for quick fire spread.

The main concern is Saturday afternoon when humidity values will
drop into the 10 to 15 percent range and winds will gust 25 to 35
miles per hour with the strongest winds in southeast Wyoming. It is looking
more and more likely that fire weather headlines will eventually
be needed.


Cys watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...small
long term...jg
fire weather...small

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