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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
1059 am MDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 235 am MDT Sat Jul 26 2014 this afternoon...NAM shows a low level convergence
boundary setting up from near Rawlins to Cheyenne. Looks like enough
convergence along the boundary to spark isolated afternoon
thunderstorms from Rawlins to Cheyenne...with greatest areal
coverage over the southern Laramie range.

Tonight...storms will decrease quickly this evening with loss of
daytime heating and as cooler air builds southward.

Sunday...combination of ridging aloft strengthening along with the
low levels becoming more stable...will produce a dry day aside from
perhaps an isolated afternoon thunderstorm over our southern
mountains. Cooler day with thickness falls and upslope east winds.

Sunday night...another cool and dry overnight period with light
southeast winds.

Monday...continued relatively cool for late July per thickness
trends. Looks like enough low and middle level moisture return to
produce isolated late day thunderstorms along and west of Interstate
25...dry elsewhere.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 235 am MDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Medium range model guidance is in good agreement with a large scale
upper ridge encompassing much of the western US through the extended
period. This feature will drift slowly eastward with time...but the
Main Ridge axis should stay west of the County Warning Area through Friday. This keeps
active northwest flow aloft intact over the central rockies through
most of the next week...contributing to frequent convective chances
and seasonable temperatures. Best chance for widespread precipitation appears
to be from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday when both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) bring a
substantial wave of 700-300 millibar moisture along the edge of the
ridge. This occurs along with the passage of a low level cold front which
enhances moist low level upslope over the plains. Cannot rule out more of
a prolonged/widespread precipitation event here with many locations seeing a
decent amount of rainfall. Midlvl subsidence starts to spread into
the area late in the week. However...low level upslope persists and the
models do hang on to available middle and high level moisture. Opted to
go with isolated probability of precipitation on Thursday/Friday afternoon and evening. Overall temperatures
this period should be right around seasonable norms. Main challenge
will be highs Wednesday with the enhanced likelihood of plenty of clouds
and possible precipitation. Trended a few degrees below consensus MOS for the
High Plains given high confidence in persistent low level upslope playing
a role here.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday morning)
issued at 1057 am MDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Thunderstorms today will be confined to extreme southeast Wyoming
near the Colorado border. Continued the thunderstorms in the vicinity wording in the 18z
tafs for kcys and klar this afternoon. Chances are most locations
will stay dry today. With warm temperatures...we will see gusty
winds once again this afternoon through early evening. VFR at all


Fire weather...
issued at 235 am MDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Humidities will range from 10 to 15 percent this afternoon from
Rawlins to Douglas...though fortunately with minimal winds.
Humidities will increase Sunday and Monday lessening the fire
weather concerns.


Cys watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Rubin
long term...hammer
fire weather...Rubin

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