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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
1053 PM MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

Update...
issued at 916 PM MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

No changes to the overnight forecast. Temperatures will dip into
the 20s to lower 30s across the forecast area tonight with teens
into the mountains. Currently skies are clear and winds are light
outside of the wind prone areas. Will see increasing high clouds
late tonight.

&&

Short term...(tonight-Friday night)
issued at 237 PM MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

A quiet weather pattern will prevail through Friday with upper-level
ridging remaining in place. Mild/dry conditions should persist given
large scale subsidence and 700 mb temperatures between -2 and +2 degree c over the
County Warning Area on Thursday. Surface temperatures may be a bit cooler than today
with middle/high cloud expected to drift across the County Warning Area during the afternoon
hours within northwest flow aloft. It may be another breezy day over
the wind corridors with 40 knot 700 mb-800 mb flow and the 700 millibar cag-
cpr gradient remaining above 40 meters. A strong middle-level shortwave
digging into the upper Midwest on Thursday night/Friday should force
a cold front southwest into our eastern zones on Friday. This should
support veering surface winds becoming southeast/upslope by middle afternoon
with boundary layer moisture increasing dramatically. Maintained the
idea of increasing cloud cover over the plains with the anticipation
of low stratus. Moisture does not appear deep enough to support probability of precipitation
at this time. However...NAM/GFS BUFKIT soundings show good saturation in the
0c to -10c layer beneath dry middle levels on Friday night. Went ahead and
added patchy light freezing drizzle along a Sidney-Alliance line. No
other forecast concerns through the period.

Long term...(saturday-wednesday)
issued at 237 PM MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

Saturday...weak shortwave trough aloft will be moving through
eastern Montana and northern Wyoming though with minimal sensible
effects on our forecast area. Continued relatively mild per
thicknesses trends.

Sunday...cooler day in the wake of the shortwave trough aloft and
cold frontal passage...though still relatively mild for middle
February. Enough moisture in northwest flow aloft to produce
orographic snows across the snowy and Sierra Madre ranges.

Monday...another warming trend begins with northwest flow
aloft...rising heights and thicknesses. Will see a decrease in
orographic snow coverage across the snowy and Sierra Madre ranges as
moisture aloft decreases. Dry elsewhere.

Tuesday...warming trend continues as thicknesses and heights aloft
rise. Likely a windy day per prognosticated low and middle level gradients and
deep unidirectional northwest winds. Continued dry with limited low
and middle level moisture.

Wednesday...mild and dry weather continues as the ridge aloft slowly
moves over our counties...and the airmass moderates. Will see
temperatures well into the 50s east of Interstate 25...with mainly
40s west of Interstate 25 in the colder valley locations.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1045 PM MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

Clear skies will give way to increasing high clouds across
southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle late tonight into
Thursday. Winds will generally be light tonight with the
exception of areas west of the Laramie range where breezy
conditions will persist tonight. Breezy across the forecast area
Thursday and windy along and west of the Laramie range. VFR
through the taf period. Low clouds and fog possible by late Friday
night into Saturday morning for areas along and east of the
Laramie range...including the western Nebraska Panhandle.



&&

Fire weather...
issued at 420 am MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

No fire weather concerns are expected in the near term due to the
residual snowpack and high relative humidities forecast through the
week. Breezy winds will prevail for much of the region and
temperatures remain above average. Minimum humidities will remain
above 30 percent.

&&

Cys watches/warnings/advisories...
Wyoming...none.
NE...none.

&&

$$

Update...small
short term...clh
long term...Rubin
aviation...small
fire weather...rjm

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