Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
506 PM MST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Short term...(tonight through Saturday night)
issued at 200 PM MST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Tonight...quiet night with northwest flow aloft and no apparent
shortwave troughs in the flow over our forecast area.

Friday...Ridge aloft over western Wyoming flattens slightly and
moves slowly closer to our forecast area. In the meantime...a slowly
westward moving backdoor cold front will lie north to south across
western Nebraska where high temperatures will remain in the upper
30s east of the cold front...and mostly 40s west of the front.

Friday night...the nearly stationary front will lie across western
Nebraska or eastern Wyoming and the models are indicating some
weak upward vertical motion and quantitative precipitation forecast developing along and east of
the cold front...thus will retain mention of light freezing drizzle
over portions of western Nebraska from inherited grids.

Saturday...next shortwave trough aloft approaches from central
Montana and western Wyoming. Nearly stationary front will lie across
our eastern counties...with cooler high temperatures east of the
front and relatively mild 50s in the warm sector west of the front.

Saturday night...shortwave trough aloft moves across our counties...
and have painted low probability of precipitation across our northern counties from Douglas
to Chadron where deeper moisture will exist and interact with the
baroclinic band moving across.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 215 PM MST Thursday Feb 11 2016

A broad upper trough from The Rockies to the eastern Seaboard will
hold sway for Sunday before gradually shifting east as a eastern
Pacific upper ridge enters the western Continental U.S. Early next week. A
couple of shortwaves will move southeast in the northwest flow
aloft Sunday and Monday and produce some light snow across portions
of southeast Wyoming...mainly over the higher terrain. It will be
seasonably cool Sunday...with warmer than normal temperatures
Monday through Thursday. It will be breezy to windy for much of
southeast Wyoming next week as a Lee side surface pressure trough remains
nearly stationary across the High Plains. Very windy conditions
will be possible Wednesday night/Thursday when the GFS forecasts 700mb
winds between 60 and 70 knots.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 450 PM MST Thursday Feb 11 2016

VFR across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska Panhandle
through tonight. The only exception may be around kcdr where low
clouds may form along a frontal boundary late tonight. The frontal
boundary will push south and westward tomorrow...backing across
southeast Wyoming. Low stratus...fog...and possibly freezing
drizzle may develop across the plains behind the front tomorrow
into tomorrow night.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 200 PM MST Thursday Feb 11 2016

No concerns due to projected humidities and winds.

&&

Cys watches/warnings/advisories...
Wyoming...none.
NE...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Rubin
long term...maj
aviation...small
fire weather...Rubin

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations