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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
500 am MDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 248 am MDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

Upper low over SW South Dakota will drift slowly eastward today
with a rather dry west to northwesterly flow over the County Warning Area. Not out of the
question for a few showers to pop up this afternoon mainly over
the northeast part of the Panhandle closest to the upper low and
cooler middle-level temperatures otherwise it should be mainly dry today
with warm temperatures. Dry and warm weather will persist Wednesday
and Thursday as a north upper ridge builds north-northeast out of the desert SW
across the region. Very warm for Thursday with plenty of sunshine
allowing maximum temperatures to reach into the 90s over much of the
Panhandle and maybe even parts of east-central Wyoming.

Long term...(thursday night through monday)
issued at 248 am MDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

Continues warm and dry through Sunday before the weather begins to
change the first part of next week. Very warm temperatures can be
expected each day through at least Saturday...and probably Sunday
as well. Went above guidance on temperatures through Sunday.

Latest GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to vary on timing of a Pacific low
pressure system moving into the area from the west. GFS more
progressive with the system...while the European model (ecmwf) much slower. Favor
the ecmwfs slower movement of this closed low. We need to be
watching Sunday night into Monday if the ecmwfs solution comes
true. With the slow movement of the low...could be seeing our
first major winter event of the season as 700mb temperatures fall
into the low single digits across our County warning forecast area. Surface temperatures
could easily wet bulb and the Laramie...snowy and Sierra Madre
ranges could easily see warning level snow amounts. Still a ways
out there...but we certainly need to be monitoring this event.
Looks like medium range guidance on temperatures are way too warm
Monday and Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 458 am MDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

VFR conditions with gusty westerly winds through the day today for
our southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle airports. Winds to
ease after 00z with mostly clear skies afterwards.


Fire weather...
issued at 248 am MDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

No major concerns seen for the rest of the week. Winds will be a
bit gusty over western areas this afternoon but other factors non-
critical. Lighter winds then expected for the rest of the week.
Min afternoon relative humidities will fall into the 15-20 percent
range over lower elevations of southeast Wyoming most days.


Cys watches/warnings/advisories...


long term...claycomb

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